Good morning. Here is today's report on the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Wednesday February 5th 2014 and copied across from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show an intense depression near Southern Ireland moving slowly North through today and slowly filling later. Severe Westerly gales are shown wrapped around the Southern flank of the Low with damage and disruption in places as heavy rain then showers continue. Conditions ease tonight and tomorrow before a new Low centre moves up towards Southern Britain with more heavy rain later in the day while the North stay showery. Then as that system moves away NE on Friday a new Low approaches Southern Ireland late in the day with renewed gales and heavy rain for many into the start of the weekend reverting to westerly gales and showers on Sunday as the Low moves up towards Scotland.
GFS then shows very unsettled weather lasting throughout next week as pressure remains very Low over the UK. As shown today the operational run does indicate rather lighter winds which would remove one disruptive part of the weather but heavy rain will continue to be a feature at time through the week. Then in the far reaches of the run the weather remains unsettled with spell of rain and showers mixed with some drier and brighter periods developing in temperatures somewhat lower at times.
The GFS Ensembles remain disturbing with no let up shown in the Atlantic pattern as Low pressure system after system rattle into and over the UK from the West with spells of rain and showers nationwide in temperatures almost totally indicated as close to the long term mean.
UKMO shows next Tuesday as totally Low pressure dominated with individual centres all over the UK and the North Atlantic with further rain and showers at times with some snow possible over the hills at times as temperatures fall somewhat.
GEM is also very unsettled looking with Low pressure in total domination too from this model with spells of rain and showers rattling on from the West next week keeping all the disruptive issues currently present possible again then.
NAVGEM is not available this morning.
ECM today shows Low pressure well in control again next week with further spells of rain and squally showers in strong West and SW winds and temperatures close to average. Again this morning the Day 10 frame while still looking very unsettled hints at something a little drier arriving from the West albeit probably briefly as a ridge of High pressure moves across the UK in the days that follow the term of the run.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts indicate to me that the likelihood for the weather in 9 and 10 Days time will show only modest changes with the high chance that we will remain influenced by Low pressure just to or close to Northern Britain with wet and windy weather continuing at times.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream Forecast maintains a strong and relentless flow running East over the Atlantic on a collision course with France continuing to spawn large storm systems over and close to the UK. Any changes late in the run point towards a slow weakening and buckling of the flow but these are small scale hints and very distant.
In Summary today the weather remains in a very unsettled state with further spells of rain and wind for all, especially over the next week. there are modest signs of something a little quieter in Week 2 but rain will still never be far away with flooding issues still a problem for many. Temperatures remain no problem given the time of year with little frost and ice though the incidence of snowfall could increase somewhat over the hills with time.
Martin G Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset