http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

Another bomb from ECM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

Another bomb from ECM

If it follows that track I think your house will be gone, Marcus.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020512/gfs-0-288.png?12 

Just a chilly ridge before the Atlantic moves in afterwords.

A fair bit northern blocking though in FI.

 

I thought so too but I'm not sure... A few more runs. Have a gut feeling for a change

 

I,m afraid that there is liitle support for change amongst GEFS right out to 384h-overwhelmimg majority of ENS still have zonal flow over the UK.

 

 

 

 

Would you be willing to take me up in my friendly wager?

Anyway ECM goes mad at 144h 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECM4-144.GIF?05-0

Very high 850 wind, be interesting to see what the ECM thinks of the surface wind, that hasn't finished running yet though. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

Another bomb from ECM

If it follows that track I think your house will be gone, Marcus.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECM1-144.GIF?05-0

It certainly doesn't look clever

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECH1-144.GIF?05-0

Another bomb from ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

A nasty fella!

Well one thing's for sure - the jet is more amplified by T+240; uppers of +8 into southern Newfoundland and -2 creeping into the Azores.

Well one thing's for sure - the jet is more amplified by T+240; uppers of +8 into southern Newfoundland and -2 creeping into the Azores.

You know what will happen SE, as always happens when we get the worst kind of winter - just when the sheep are lambing, the daffodils are blooming and the bluebells are unfurling their azure colours, winter will start with a vengeance and we shall get frost, snow and ice for the start of March!

I detest winters like this. We should get ice and snow in January and then March should bring in zephyr winds, soft scents and rising sap!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECU1-144.GIF?05-0

That would be perhaps a record-breaker...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014020512/navgem-0-168.png?05-18

While that would be... similar in terms of pressure gradient, but crazy in terms of central pressure.

What ECM and NAVGEM are picking up on is the potential that comes with the southern jet picking up disturbances moving up from the Gulf of Mexico; if any one of those systems positions favourably, it can bomb out.

GFS and UKMO are not seeing that kind of development and that's largely down to them being slower with the disturbance - it reaches a favourable position close to the East U.S. coast rather than in the middle of the Atlantic, and at that time it's not picked up much eastward momentum so it doesn't get nearly as far... or at least, not on the GFS 12z op run. The UKMO run seems to have the trough nearly as slow as GFS but doesn't have the development stage occuring quite so far west.

There looks to be a fair number of those little disturbances entering the Atlantic over the coming week - it's like a game of Russian Roulette where the southern jet is the gun and those disturbances are the bullets 

Within the reliable time frame, Euro 4 goes for 2 inches of rain locally over the next 2 days

Serious flooding potential clearly signalled by the short term models in the SE corner.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECU1-144.GIF?05-0

That would be perhaps a record-breaker...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014020512/navgem-0-168.png?05-18

While that would be... similar in terms of pressure gradient, but crazy in terms of central pressure.

 

What ECM and NAVGEM are picking up on is the potential that comes with the southern jet picking up disturbances moving up from the Gulf of Mexico; if any one of those systems positions favourably, it can bomb out.

GFS and UKMO are not seeing that kind of development and that's largely down to them being slower with the disturbance - it reaches a favourable position close to the East U.S. coast rather than in the middle of the Atlantic, and at that time it's not picked up much eastward momentum so it doesn't get nearly as far... or at least, not on the GFS 12z op run. The UKMO run seems to have the trough nearly as slow as GFS but doesn't have the development stage occuring quite so far west.

 

There looks to be a fair number of those little disturbances entering the Atlantic over the coming week - it's like a game of Russian Roulette where the southern jet is the gun and those disturbances are the bullets 

Although the ECM is only predicting surface winds of 57mph max. Though I suppose that is sustained. 

Perhaps more noteworthy is the 10cm of snow being predicted for Northern ireland at 144h on the ECM. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECU1-144.GIF?05-0

That would be perhaps a record-breaker...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014020512/navgem-0-168.png?05-18

While that would be... similar in terms of pressure gradient, but crazy in terms of central pressure.

 

What ECM and NAVGEM are picking up on is the potential that comes with the southern jet picking up disturbances moving up from the Gulf of Mexico; if any one of those systems positions favourably, it can bomb out.

GFS and UKMO are not seeing that kind of development and that's largely down to them being slower with the disturbance - it reaches a favourable position close to the East U.S. coast rather than in the middle of the Atlantic, and at that time it's not picked up much eastward momentum so it doesn't get nearly as far... or at least, not on the GFS 12z op run. The UKMO run seems to have the trough nearly as slow as GFS but doesn't have the development stage occuring quite so far west.

 

There looks to be a fair number of those little disturbances entering the Atlantic over the coming week - it's like a game of Russian Roulette where the southern jet is the gun and those disturbances are the bullets 

Although the ECM is only predicting surface winds of 57mph max. Though I suppose that is sustained. 

Perhaps more noteworthy is the 10cm of snow being predicted for Northern ireland at 144h on the ECM. 

Could be another Oct 87 with those charts

Quantum: I'll have a friendly weathermans bet with you! I agree with what I am seeing from GEFS i.e a continuing unsettled theme, a little colder next week (high ground wet snow at times, non-settling and very transient) with a colder rain merely being the sad miserable case. Strong winds, gales at times, more flooding. A couple of drier interludes hinted with temperatures closer to average i.e rain for most, hill snow becoming even more likely.... but.... no nationwide 'proper' Beast from the East type of freeze and therefore, nothing which even closely resembles a winter i.e the continuation of a very, very, very long autumn....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECU1-144.GIF?05-0

That would be perhaps a record-breaker...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014020512/navgem-0-168.png?05-18

While that would be... similar in terms of pressure gradient, but crazy in terms of central pressure.

 

What ECM and NAVGEM are picking up on is the potential that comes with the southern jet picking up disturbances moving up from the Gulf of Mexico; if any one of those systems positions favourably, it can bomb out.

GFS and UKMO are not seeing that kind of development and that's largely down to them being slower with the disturbance - it reaches a favourable position close to the East U.S. coast rather than in the middle of the Atlantic, and at that time it's not picked up much eastward momentum so it doesn't get nearly as far... or at least, not on the GFS 12z op run. The UKMO run seems to have the trough nearly as slow as GFS but doesn't have the development stage occuring quite so far west.

 

There looks to be a fair number of those little disturbances entering the Atlantic over the coming week - it's like a game of Russian Roulette where the southern jet is the gun and those disturbances are the bullets 

Although the ECM is only predicting surface winds of 57mph max. Though I suppose that is sustained. 

Perhaps more noteworthy is the 10cm of snow being predicted for Northern ireland at 144h on the ECM. 

Could be another Oct 87 with those charts

Quantum: I'll have a friendly weathermans bet with you! I agree with what I am seeing from GEFS i.e a continuing unsettled theme, a little colder next week (high ground wet snow at times, non-settling and very transient) with a colder rain merely being the sad miserable case. Strong winds, gales at times, more flooding. A couple of drier interludes hinted with temperatures closer to average i.e rain for most, hill snow becoming even more likely.... but.... no nationwide 'proper' Beast from the East type of freeze and therefore, nothing which even closely resembles a winter i.e the continuation of a very, very, very long autumn....

Indeed Andy

GEFS also has some support for the ECM bomb at T144. These small scale systems are increasingly undergoing explosive cyclogenesis to the SW of the UK and as such will be difficult to model. It seems we are on a conveyor belt atm...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECU1-144.GIF?05-0

That would be perhaps a record-breaker...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014020512/navgem-0-168.png?05-18

While that would be... similar in terms of pressure gradient, but crazy in terms of central pressure.

 

What ECM and NAVGEM are picking up on is the potential that comes with the southern jet picking up disturbances moving up from the Gulf of Mexico; if any one of those systems positions favourably, it can bomb out.

GFS and UKMO are not seeing that kind of development and that's largely down to them being slower with the disturbance - it reaches a favourable position close to the East U.S. coast rather than in the middle of the Atlantic, and at that time it's not picked up much eastward momentum so it doesn't get nearly as far... or at least, not on the GFS 12z op run. The UKMO run seems to have the trough nearly as slow as GFS but doesn't have the development stage occuring quite so far west.

 

There looks to be a fair number of those little disturbances entering the Atlantic over the coming week - it's like a game of Russian Roulette where the southern jet is the gun and those disturbances are the bullets 

Although the ECM is only predicting surface winds of 57mph max. Though I suppose that is sustained. 

Perhaps more noteworthy is the 10cm of snow being predicted for Northern ireland at 144h on the ECM. 

As 57 mph sustained winds would be 15-20 mph faster than what went through last night, then I'd suggest that aspect might be the more noteworthy.

Good evening everyone. Here is the next instalment of the volatile atmosphere present across the UK at the moment and in the near future as seen by the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM tonight for today Wednesday February 5th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models continue to predict more rain and strong winds over the coming week as further very deep and powerful depressions affect the UK periodically. Today's storm will gradually weaken as it drifts North over the UK with a quieter period of weather for 12 hours or so develops from later tonight. By lunch tomorrow a new depression moves up from the South engaging some tropical air and enhancing the heaviness of the rain which once more moves up across the South and Wales by late afternoon. This rain could well enhance flooding before it clears away NE overnight. Friday is shown to be a bright, breezy and showery day before another storm, similar to today's version moves quickly into the UK later Friday with severe gales and more heavy rain sweeping in overnight and lasting well into Saturday. The weekend then sees the Low slow moving near Northern Britain with a gale Westerly flow with squally showers likely over the UK. Throughout this very active period temperatures will be academic but close to average but it could be cold enough at times in the North for some snow on the hills.

GFS shows the opportunity for further spells of rain and showers, heavy and prolonged at times and accompanied by gales as further deep Low pressure moves across from the west at times. Later in the run there is a glimmer of light to report tonight in as much as pressure will be slightly higher and there will be some drier windows between the rain later.

The GFS Ensembles continue to make for disturbing viewing as there remains little prospect shown by any member of any significant drier spell with further rain on most days under Low pressure areas moving in from the West and SW. Temperatures continue to be programmed to be close to average overall with still little sign of anything colder of note.

UKMO closes it's run tonight with an unstable SW flow next Tuesday with showers giving way to more prolonged rain through the day as another active trough swings in from the West.

GEM tonight is unrelenting in it's quest to maintain the UK under the grip of Low pressure with a large cold pool of Low pressure over many areas later next week with some powerful deeper Lows near to the warmer air to the South fueling further spells of heavy rain and strong winds.

NAVGEM is we hope incorrect tonight but probably entirely feasible in it's projection of a Low crossing England next Wednesday at what would be a near record Low pressure of 945mbs bringing all the disruption and devastation that such a storm could produce before it moves away East but maintaining gales and rain at times.

ECM this evening shows further unsettled and wet weather at times next week. It does show a deceleration of the pattern though with longer drier spells between the rain areas through the second half of next week.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show once more that the likely position that the UK will find itself 10 days from now remains much the same with Low pressure influential to the UK weather with a SW flow maintained around low pressure to the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream Forecast remains very concerning as it shows absolutely no sign of weakening in the reliable time frame tonight maintaining it's position west to east over the Atlantic and across France and Spain breeding powerful depressions and storm systems one after another as it speeds across the Atlantic. Even at the far end of the run in two weeks time changes are minimal and unlikely to change anything dramatically over the UK.

In Summary the weather remains largely unsettled and potentially stormy at times according to much of tonight's output. There are some encouraging signs of something at least a little drier late next week as the pattern slows and longer drier spells may be encouraged to develop between the depressions. However, such signs are tentative at best and we have been down this road a week or so back before the rug was swept from under our feet so we need to see more consistency spread between the models over the coming days before anyone can become the least bit hopeful. Meanwhile between now and then the pain and misery goes on for those afflicted by floods for some considerable time to come I'm afraid.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014020512/ECU1-144.GIF?05-0

That would be perhaps a record-breaker...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/runs/2014020512/navgem-0-168.png?05-18

While that would be... similar in terms of pressure gradient, but crazy in terms of central pressure.

 

What ECM and NAVGEM are picking up on is the potential that comes with the southern jet picking up disturbances moving up from the Gulf of Mexico; if any one of those systems positions favourably, it can bomb out.

GFS and UKMO are not seeing that kind of development and that's largely down to them being slower with the disturbance - it reaches a favourable position close to the East U.S. coast rather than in the middle of the Atlantic, and at that time it's not picked up much eastward momentum so it doesn't get nearly as far... or at least, not on the GFS 12z op run. The UKMO run seems to have the trough nearly as slow as GFS but doesn't have the development stage occuring quite so far west.

 

There looks to be a fair number of those little disturbances entering the Atlantic over the coming week - it's like a game of Russian Roulette where the southern jet is the gun and those disturbances are the bullets 

Although the ECM is only predicting surface winds of 57mph max. Though I suppose that is sustained. 

Perhaps more noteworthy is the 10cm of snow being predicted for Northern ireland at 144h on the ECM. 

Could be another Oct 87 with those charts

Quantum: I'll have a friendly weathermans bet with you! I agree with what I am seeing from GEFS i.e a continuing unsettled theme, a little colder next week (high ground wet snow at times, non-settling and very transient) with a colder rain merely being the sad miserable case. Strong winds, gales at times, more flooding. A couple of drier interludes hinted with temperatures closer to average i.e rain for most, hill snow becoming even more likely.... but.... no nationwide 'proper' Beast from the East type of freeze and therefore, nothing which even closely resembles a winter i.e the continuation of a very, very, very long autumn....

The wager would be:

1) Some sign of pattern change by the 15th

2) Northern or Southern blocking by the 20th

The 1st is more of a subjective entry requirment, if the atlantic is raging through at full force and there is nothing in the reliable time frame on the main models then you will win.

The 2nd condition requires strong influence from a scandanavian, greenland*, bartlett, azors, or Euro high or strong mid atlantic high**, or UK based highs (NOT transient ridge) .

*In this case it has to be obvious the blocking is influencing the UK and not just iceland. In all cases dry weather (excepting lake effect wintry showers) should be prolonged in the south east.

** A northerly toppler does not count, since the atlantic would still be pummeling through. Any cold spell produced as a result of a mid atlantic high should last at least 5 days and put the -5C isotherm across the entire country. Any cold airmass that otherwise results from a cold sector of a depression, or a polar maritime airmass (northwesterly usually) does not count. It should be apparant by the longevity whether it is a brief cold sector + ridge or substantial blocking. 

Note: Snow and cold does not form any role in the wager; snow in atlantic conditions cannot be used to my advantage, and lack of snow in southern blocking conditions to yours. The key aspect will be a shutdown of the atlantic train, and drier (as a direct result of blocking) weather generally. 

If this is not the case you will win. 

If you are okay with this? 

In the highly unlikely event that blocking starts and ends before the 20th, and significant blocking lasts longer than 5 days a draw would be declared. 

No real sign of any respite from this awful spell of weather.

Just when you think that North atlantic SST's are maybe starting to cool enough to possibly start reducing the strength of cyclogenesis, the atmosphere decides to start forming even more disturbing features from the warmer waters towards Biscay.

Warmer water = More moisture = More flooding.

No real sign of any respite from this awful spell of weather.

Just when you think that North atlantic SST's are maybe starting to cool enough to possibly start reducing the strength of cyclogenesis, the atmosphere decides to start forming even more disturbing features from the warmer waters towards Biscay.

Warmer water = More moisture = More flooding.

 

Oh, it will change alright. Last week of February into first week of March - that is when winter proper will start. Too far ahead for the models to pick it up yet, but no weather pattern lasts indefinitely. 

No real sign of any respite from this awful spell of weather.

Just when you think that North atlantic SST's are maybe starting to cool enough to possibly start reducing the strength of cyclogenesis, the atmosphere decides to start forming even more disturbing features from the warmer waters towards Biscay.

Warmer water = More moisture = More flooding.

 

Oh, it will change alright. Last week of February into first week of March - that is when winter proper will start. Too far ahead for the models to pick it up yet, but no weather pattern lasts indefinitely. 

A cold, wet and wintry March would be the ultimate insult after the autumn we are enduring !