Model Output Discussion 05-02-14, 07:55 >>>· Page 5

Sevendust
Guest

06 February 2014 11:51:58

#101

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.gif

We deserve this after all the crap we've been through

Would be a nice way to finish the winter

Originally Posted by: vince

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020606/gfsnh-1-384.png?6

Be funny if snow came throughout March

Originally Posted by: Gooner

bloody wouldnt be , after last years vile puke it would be nice to get the growing season off on time for a change , yes want a good frost to kill of the grubs buried in the soil and to get the spuds in the ground in March rather than May ta very much

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

It could be a disaster for the growing industry.....the most crucial thing needed is a reduction of rain

soperman
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 12:53:23

#102

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3362.gif

We deserve this after all the crap we've been through

Would be a nice way to finish the winter

Originally Posted by: Gooner

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020606/gfsnh-1-384.png?6

Be funny if snow came throughout March

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Hi Marcus

March is often cold which I tend to hate actually. But this year after all this rain, wind and mildness, I say bring it on.

There have been a few signals deep into FI of a pattern change. This is often expected in late Jan and February when the jet tends to weaken and perhaps this will occur this year but just later.

I like the way in deep FI how the Scandi block is reinforced by the arctic high.

Will be taking a muchcloser interset in the ECM 240 over the coming week.

Happily living by the sea in Brixham......but sad to leave the snowy Chiltern Hills after 35 years!

doctor snow
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 13:02:36

#103

Mmm 6z looking good in far 384 hours another bail of straw to hold on 2 .something for the coldies

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 13:31:40

#104

Mmm 6z looking good in far 384 hours another bail of straw to hold on 2 .something for the coldies

Originally Posted by: doctor snow

I don't happen to think it is straw clutching. The prevailing weather will change at some point and as we get closer to the vernal equinox, change becomes more likely. It is perfectly possible that as the weather becomes more settled, it also becomes much colder - large HP cells have been lurking to our east and to our north for some time now - once the Atlantic quietens down, they may be ready to pounce!

New world order coming.

Gooner
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 13:42:32

#105

Mmm 6z looking good in far 384 hours another bail of straw to hold on 2 .something for the coldies

Originally Posted by: doctor snow

There have been a number of runs on GFS that has hinted at a more settled/colder spell, a trend to watch

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

doctor snow
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 14:01:42

#106

Lets hope the cold comes sooner and not pushed back into f1 . Be fun with lots of ice rinks every where with all the flood water u wont need a boat to get home in Dorset but some ice skates will be needed

RobN
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 14:15:38

#107

Some support for end of month cold is appearing.

GFS control run also is quite decent from T+276 esp for the north.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-276.png?

ECM control is also in a colder cluster in de Bilt ens.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

A lot of runs to get through yet though

Rob

In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.

Maunder Minimum
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 14:52:57

#108

Some support for end of month cold is appearing.

GFS control run also is quite decent from T+276 esp for the north.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-276.png?

ECM control is also in a colder cluster in de Bilt ens.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

A lot of runs to get through yet though

Originally Posted by: RobN

It is a logical progression. Pressure is building to the north and as the sun starts to impact on the Polar night jet, the vortex will become less powerful.

February often sees a more settled spell of weather as a consequence of a decline in vorticity - it is just starting from a very bad place this year, so it is taking time to manifest itself.

New world order coming.

Gavin P
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 15:35:50

#109

Hi all,

Very speculative video update today, but we're looking at the chances of drier (and colder) conditions after mid-month;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

briggsy6
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 16:08:44

#110

Some support for end of month cold is appearing.

GFS control run also is quite decent from T+276 esp for the north.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-276.png?

ECM control is also in a colder cluster in de Bilt ens.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php

A lot of runs to get through yet though

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum

It is a logical progression. Pressure is building to the north and as the sun starts to impact on the Polar night jet, the vortex will become less powerful.

February often sees a more settled spell of weather as a consequence of a decline in vorticity - it is just starting from a very bad place this year, so it is taking time to manifest itself.

Originally Posted by: RobN

Having just checked my copy of Collins:The Ultimate Guide to the Elements I find that February is usually considerably drier month than January, and surprisingly March is drier still.

Location: Uxbridge

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 16:31:03

#111

Both UKMO and GFS say it could be cold enough for some snow around the 10th and 11th

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020612/UW96-7.GIF?06-17

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

The Beast from the East
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 16:36:05

#112

Again signs of change mid month, and a welcome taste of cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

SEMerc
Guest

06 February 2014 16:58:32

#113

Both UKMO and GFS say it could be cold enough for some snow around the 10th and 11th

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020612/UW96-7.GIF?06-17

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Aside from a hut on Ben Nevis I doubt it with those uppers.

Whether Idle
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 16:59:45

#114

Again signs of change mid month, and a welcome taste of cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Its the DRY we are after, Beast!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

Osprey
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 17:06:18

#115

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfs-0-384.png?12?12

I don't care what it does, warm or cold, all I want is continuous dry weather...

Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...

If it ain't broke, don't fix it!

Quantum
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 17:22:00

#116

Seeing potentially very disruptive snow event next tuesday, even lower levels could see excess of 5, even 10cm if nothing goes wrong. Easily the snowiest event all winter so far. Expecting amber warning by the metoffice.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Charmhills
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 17:22:25

#117

Again signs of change mid month, and a welcome taste of cold

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020612/gfsnh-0-240.png?12

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle

Its the DRY we are after, Beast!

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Not much sign of that from the 12z so far.

Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power.

Duane.

Quantum
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 17:25:12

#118

Both UKMO and GFS say it could be cold enough for some snow around the 10th and 11th

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020612/UW96-7.GIF?06-17

Originally Posted by: SEMerc

Aside from a hut on Ben Nevis I doubt it with those uppers.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East

Don't fall into a 850 addiction :P

Remember that is a warm occluded front, you need uppers of only about -3C to get snow on that provided it is well defined, uppers take no account of the lapse rate which means the rules are different for different situs. Uppers of between -4 and -6 are easily cold enough for a snow event on especially tuesday.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

marting
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 17:28:05

#119

Hi ink that is 5 consecutive GFS runs now showing colder options after 192 hours. A trend, but more runs and time will tell if it develops. Looks like the progression is similarly shown through ECM. At least that should mean drier, although not so bad here as in shelter of Wales and we have a lot less flooding than last year.

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

David M Porter
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 17:48:13

#120

Hi all,

Very speculative video update today, but we're looking at the chances of drier (and colder) conditions after mid-month;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Originally Posted by: Gavin P

Let's hope that it does turn drier at some point this month, even if it isn't particularly cold with it.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

Polar Low
Advanced Member

06 February 2014 17:58:48

#121

Thats a wintry mix if gfs is right at that time

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=114&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=taup&HH=126&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Both UKMO and GFS say it could be cold enough for some snow around the 10th and 11th

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020612/UW96-7.GIF?06-17

Originally Posted by: Quantum

Aside from a hut on Ben Nevis I doubt it with those uppers.

Originally Posted by: SEMerc

Don't fall into a 850 addiction :P

Remember that is a warm occluded front, you need uppers of only about -3C to get snow on that provided it is well defined, uppers take no account of the lapse rate which means the rules are different for different situs. Uppers of between -4 and -6 are easily cold enough for a snow event on especially tuesday.

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East