Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Thursday February 6th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm
All models show a Low pressure area tracking NE across Southern England with outbreaks of rain, heavy in places continuing through the night. By morning the Low is shown to move out into the North Sea with a fine interlude developing tomorrow as we lie between pressure systems. Tomorrow evening though shows a new powerful depression sweeping into Ireland from the SW bringing an active set of fronts with it with more gales, heavy rain and increased risk of flooding once more. Following the rain will be severe gales and heavy showers in Westerly winds with coastal defences in the West and South put to the test once more. This windy and showery theme continues through the weekend as the Low responsible drifts to the North of Scotland by Monday.
GFS then show the start of next week bright and showery to begin with before the rest of the week sees further troughs and Low pressure systems passing through, each delivering more wind and rain across the UK in average temperatures though perhaps rather chilly in the North at times with hill snow. Later in the lower resolution part of the run there remains little concrete evidence for improvements with further Low pressure areas passing over the UK with rain and showers separated by short drier interludes. Temperatures never look like straying far from average with little in the way of frost and fog.
The GFS Ensembles remain very stable and keeping temperatures close to average with all members keeping very unsettled conditions with rain at times going throughout the period for all areas.
UKMO tonight looks disturbing, especially early in the week again as yet another vicious storm system whips across Ireland on Tuesday with a strong and showery Westerly flow on Wednesday with further embryonic systems shown out to the SW for later in the week.
GEM remains unrelenting in it's projection of further deep depressions and attendant rain and strong winds crossing the UK in the final days of it's 10 day run with temperatures close to average but cold enough at times for some snow on Northern hills.
NAVGEM is awful tonight showing the most powerful storm yet crossing Wales and the Midlands midweek with storm force winds and heavy rain the likely events coupled with storm surges and the like as it tracks ENE before leaving the UK in strong Westerly winds and showers later in the week.
ECM tonight takes the early week storm a little further North than it's counterpart models but nonetheless the pattern of heavy rain and strong winds remain the same with the model showing another storm further South at the end of the week before the run ends on a cold and unstable Westerly flow but less strong with showers, wintry on hills.
The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure still likeely to be in control of the UK weather in 10 Days time with the majority of members indicatig a preference for Low pressure to be close to northern Britain with a Jet flow to the South and pressure over the UK sub 1000mbs. Rain at times would inevitably occur in South or west winds and temperatures near average.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif
The Jet Stream Forecast shows little change tonight with a strong flow West to East across the Atlantic and then across Spain or France. there is still some indication of a weakening of the flow through week 2.
In Summary there is little to cheer about in tonight's output with seemingly relentless supply of Low pressure systems crossing the Atlantic, each having the UK in their sights. As a result there will be copious amounts of rain and wind too at times causing further disruption from both flooding and wind damage through next week in particular. Signs of a quietening of conditions are still just about present within some longer term projections but if anything there seems little or even less support for this aside from a far end low resolution chart at Day 15 from GFS, a slackening pattern in the Day 10 chart (perhaps) from ECM and also hints of a slackening Jet flow in the GFS Ensembles.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset