Hi Roger, great post as always- thanks.

In relation to your question re verification of MetO 3 month forecasts: I do clearly remember a permanent note within their NAO prediction method (from annual May signal) stating a >60% success rate, self certification. This was of course before the 3 month public write-ups were canned circa 2008(ish).
Hope this helps.

Personally I would say this winter will end up dryer than normal overall but average on temps. Very wet spells in jan but Early feb being the exciting time for coldies.

Thanks white meadows.Yes I have heard that the NAO forecast has a 0.6 correlation with winter temp type ie explains roughly 50% ofwinter temp variation.However the difficult part is  still forecasting the NAO itself!

I wopuld still like to find out that if we take the end of November temperature forecasts( ie above or below normal)  from METO for the following winter,what proportion are correrct?

Cheers,

 

R

Last time the CET area recorded a really cold February was 1991. Since December, January and March have all returned months over 2C below the average recently, I can't see why February can't. It feels like only a matter of time, but when?

---

Last time the CET area recorded a really cold February was 1991. Since December, January and March have all returned months over 2C below the average recently, I can't see why February can't. It feels like only a matter of time, but when?

The way this Winter is looking like at the moment it's shades of 2011/12 where February may be our only chance of something decent wintry. Not buying the cold March again from the JMA and Korean models, that will flip - they always have the coldest weather at the edge of the range but flip to the opposite as it gets nearer the time. Plus to get a March statistcally like last year is highly unlikely - that was about as cold as it could be for the UK and was the December 2010 equivalent it could be argued so very rare. Plus there is no strong La Nina forecast either which can encourage a cold spring for us - no expert on that but that's how I understand it so happy for anyone to correct me there.

I think I agree with you we are overdue a cold February but when that will be is anyones' guess, a 1986 February with perhaps a bit more precipitation would do nicely but I'd settle for 1991 equivalent if that's all that is on offer!  That was not a bad spell of wintry weather for quite a few.

 

I had previously questioned the effect of a quiet hurricane season on the following winter, and after seeing Gavs video today it got my interest going again.  I have taken the quietest hurricane seasons for each of the last decades and put below (from wikipedia).  A couple had quiet seasons back to back or near each other so have added them in too.  If some one was able to fill in the winter summary it be appreciated.  I also have the CETs for the following Jan and Feb, but cant seem to edit the table without it crashing so will post after to avoid having to start again.

Year	Total Hurri	Major Hurri	Oct Cet	Nov Cet	General Winter Summary
2013	2	0	12.5	6.2
1972	3	0	10.6	6.3
1962	3	1	10.4	5.5
1957	3	2	9.4	6.0
1930	2	2	10.5	6.2
1925	2	0	10.4	3.6
1914	0	0	10.3	6.8

Year	Jan CET	Feb CET
2014	?	?
1973	4.5	4.3
1963	-2.1	-0.7
1958	5.5	5.3
1931	3.2	3.9
1926	4.6	6.8
1915	4.1	6.8

 From what i can find the Average CET for Oct is 10.6, Nov 9, Jan+Feb 3.8 (Im unsure on this so if someone can confirm one way or another.  Based on the above, it is more likely than not, that this Jan Feb will be above average in terms of CET, but there is the outside chance that a small shift in pattern could lead to below average CETs such as 1947 and 1963.  However, you will see that 2010 was also below average.  This makes me lean further to the above average CETs for Jan and Feb.

 

Other "colder" winters were 1987, 1985, 1979, and 1942.  Their preceding hurricane seasons were as follows 4/0, 5/1, 5/2, 4/3  which were in the "quieter" end of their respective decades activity.

Hope its useful, it helped me pass an hour before the pub 

* Conclusion - This winter depends greatly on the position of HP (most do i suppose) 

 

Edit - CET data courtesy of Metoffice

 

I have updated the Nov CET into the table and removed any that were warmer.  

It gives less years to look at to compare patterns etc.  I am no good at finding these things, but if anyone can post charts relating to winter of 72/73 as i think based on temps vs hurricane this is the best fit.

November sounds similar http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/4/h/Nov1972.pdf

Dec http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/7/h/Dec1972.pdf

Jan http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/8/p/Jan1973.pdf

Feb http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/9/o/Feb1973.pdf

Found this from Kevin (i think) who also posts on here for 1958. (although i dont think the preceding months weather matches.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/51526-january-1958-wide-variation-in-temperatures/

 

 

---

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4birminghamtemp.gif

JFF Out to the end of Jan , not much cheer there for us coldies

---

With the benefit of the hindsight of being halfway through a December that's started mild and with models forecasting zonal pattern for the next two weeks, the odds are clearly stacked on this being a mild winter.  Decembers are a good (though not infallible) predictor of the winter to follow.   Take the 3 mildest Decembers of the past 100 years, 1934, 1974 and 1988 - all followed up with above average Januarys and Februarys (though not as mild as the preceding December), and the picture through the CET record is pretty similar.....

So, is it time for snow-lovers to despair of anything this year?  

Firstly, the past few winters has utterly dispensed with the commonly-held belief pre-2008 that "global warming" had irreversably altered weather patterns meaning that 'snowfall was becoming an increasing rare and unexpected event' over the UK.  As such, any mild winter isn't so much seen a confirmation of this view, but rather any inevitable part of living in the UK, where mild winters occurred even right in the depth on the Little Ice Age (e.g . 1795/6 with its 7.3 January - the very year after the record-breaking of January 1795 with its CET of -3.1!).  So even if this year does turn out mild and snowless, it won't depress me like, say, 2007, did.

Secondly, even in "mild" winters, cold, snowy periods can and do occur.  Take 2011/12 for example.... Definitely mild overall, with a snowless, mild December, but we had a reasonable, if unspectacular, week-long cold spell with spell in February that allowed both a decent sledging event (the main criteria for me as I have young kids), a week of snow-cover, culminating in a snow-on-snow event and a minima (-19 in nearby Chesham) that beat anything here in the post-2007 winter era!

Thirdly, a mild December doesn't necessarily mean a proper cold period won't occur.  For instance, December 1852 was exceptionally mild, coming in at 7.7 (1988 was 7.5)...... the following January was above average at 5.1, but February was properly wintry at 0.6.   Also, December 1837 was a mild (albeit unexceptionally so) 5.3, followed by a bitter -1.5 January - a 6.8 degree drop which I believe is a record within winter!

So, will Winter 2013/14 end up being a classic - highly unlikely though its not impossible.  Will winter be a write-off?  I think that's quite likely frankly - and we shouldn't be surprised if it is - but does that mean we should give up hope?  Certainly not.

Andrew

 

 

 

---

Good post and upbeat

---

Mild, wet Decembers have sometimes been followed by notable cold spells in January and February.

Here is a list just from memory:

Decembers.....

1954

1955

1977

1984

1985

1986

All these Decembers had well above average temperatures but were followed by several spells of severe weather in January and/or February.

I dont think December 2013 is in the same league as 1974 and 1988 and I would be surprised if this winter was as mild as either of those horrors.

Andy

 

 

 

 

 

---

With the benefit of the hindsight of being halfway through a December that's started mild and with models forecasting zonal pattern for the next two weeks, the odds are clearly stacked on this being a mild winter.  Decembers are a good (though not infallible) predictor of the winter to follow.   Take the 3 mildest Decembers of the past 100 years, 1934, 1974 and 1988 - all followed up with above average Januarys and Februarys (though not as mild as the preceding December), and the picture through the CET record is pretty similar.....

So, is it time for snow-lovers to despair of anything this year?  

Firstly, the past few winters has utterly dispensed with the commonly-held belief pre-2008 that "global warming" had irreversably altered weather patterns meaning that 'snowfall was becoming an increasing rare and unexpected event' over the UK.  As such, any mild winter isn't so much seen a confirmation of this view, but rather any inevitable part of living in the UK, where mild winters occurred even right in the depth on the Little Ice Age (e.g . 1795/6 with its 7.3 January - the very year after the record-breaking of January 1795 with its CET of -3.1!).  So even if this year does turn out mild and snowless, it won't depress me like, say, 2007, did.

Secondly, even in "mild" winters, cold, snowy periods can and do occur.  Take 2011/12 for example.... Definitely mild overall, with a snowless, mild December, but we had a reasonable, if unspectacular, week-long cold spell with spell in February that allowed both a decent sledging event (the main criteria for me as I have young kids), a week of snow-cover, culminating in a snow-on-snow event and a minima (-19 in nearby Chesham) that beat anything here in the post-2007 winter era!

Thirdly, a mild December doesn't necessarily mean a proper cold period won't occur.  For instance, December 1852 was exceptionally mild, coming in at 7.7 (1988 was 7.5)...... the following January was above average at 5.1, but February was properly wintry at 0.6.   Also, December 1837 was a mild (albeit unexceptionally so) 5.3, followed by a bitter -1.5 January - a 6.8 degree drop which I believe is a record within winter!

So, will Winter 2013/14 end up being a classic - highly unlikely though its not impossible.  Will winter be a write-off?  I think that's quite likely frankly - and we shouldn't be surprised if it is - but does that mean we should give up hope?  Certainly not.

Andrew

 

 

 

Cheers Andrew, a good sound post. I like winter to be on the snowy side let us see what will happen?

---

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4birminghamtemp.gif

JFF JFF JFF

CFS now gives us 2 weeks of bitter temps in the New Year

---

Isn't it about time we started the Spring thread?  (Please don't assume I am saying a winter is over!).

---

Firstly, the past few winters has utterly dispensed with he commonly-held belief pre-2008 that "global warming" had irreversably altered weather patterns meaning that 'snowfall was becoming an increasing rare and unexpected event' over the UK.

That was absolute twaddle that was peddled by Ian Brown who is a complete charlatan, IMO

Weather patterns had not altered and I have the proof from a text book from 1957 showing the normal winter pressure pattern of the North Atlantic and the Icelandic low is there! I have a weather map showing mean pressure patterns around the world from 1913 and guess what the Icelandic low is there too!

So how can weather patterns have been changed, when they are showing the same pattern as were 100 years ago? The only argument that could be bantered is that pattern has been strengthened. Weather patterns do not become extinct, they are not dodos. And it's impossible to prove because it is only to happened once within 10, 100 or even 1000 years etc and that is proof enough that it's not extinct.

---

Firstly, the past few winters has utterly dispensed with he commonly-held belief pre-2008 that "global warming" had irreversably altered weather patterns meaning that 'snowfall was becoming an increasing rare and unexpected event' over the UK.

That was absolute twaddle that was peddled by Ian Brown who is a complete charlatan, IMO

Weather patterns had not altered and I have the proof from a text book from 1957 showing the normal winter pressure pattern of the North Atlantic and the Icelandic low is there! I have a weather map showing mean pressure patterns around the world from 1913 and guess what the Icelandic low is there too!

So how can weather patterns have been changed, when they are showing the same pattern as were 100 years ago? The only argument that could be bantered is that pattern has been strengthened. Weather patterns do not become extinct, they are not dodos. And it's impossible to prove because it is only to happened once within 10, 100 or even 1000 years etc and that is proof enough that it's not extinct.

And here it is and this from 1957

---

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek2.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek4.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek5.gif

JFF JFF

CFS gives us s cold few weeks

 

 

 

---

Firstly, the past few winters has utterly dispensed with he commonly-held belief pre-2008 that "global warming" had irreversably altered weather patterns meaning that 'snowfall was becoming an increasing rare and unexpected event' over the UK.

That was absolute twaddle that was peddled by Ian Brown who is a complete charlatan, IMO

Weather patterns had not altered and I have the proof from a text book from 1957 showing the normal winter pressure pattern of the North Atlantic and the Icelandic low is there! I have a weather map showing mean pressure patterns around the world from 1913 and guess what the Icelandic low is there too!

So how can weather patterns have been changed, when they are showing the same pattern as were 100 years ago? The only argument that could be bantered is that pattern has been strengthened. Weather patterns do not become extinct, they are not dodos. And it's impossible to prove because it is only to happened once within 10, 100 or even 1000 years etc and that is proof enough that it's not extinct.

Agree about Ian Brown, Kevin. He was at best a wind-up merchant in my view, and even before 2008 I had a feeling that all his "modern winter" guff would one day blow up in his face. It certainly did in both winter 2009-10 and December 2010!

---

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek2.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek4.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek5.gif

JFF JFF

CFS gives us s cold few weeks

 

 

 

Pity METO doesnt seem to be on the same route -January close to normal seems to be their take.

Snowing...again in Bishkek Kyrgyzstan http://live.saimanet.kg/ru/cams/2#.UrXdAqg0JeM

---

No need to go abroad for your snow. Just view some of the cams up here

---

23/12 0z Control run gets briefly very interesting around t300 before succumbing to the Atlantic.  Caused by a low heading ESE across the Channel into Europe.

---

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013122306/run2/cfsnh-0-870.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013122306/run2/cfsnh-2-870.png?06

JFF JFF

Be happy with this at the end of January

 

---