Winter Indicators.

Here we are 3 months way from the start of winter,and asking the perennial question" will it be a cold winter? Four of the last five winters have been cold so does the law  of averages come into play to redress the balance or could it be cold again?What are the early signals from the key indicators?

1.ENSO.

The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion (Sept 5th) concludes "ENSO neutral is favoured through the northern hemisphere winter 2013/14."For DJF the various models show a split between weak negative and weak positive indices with the average trending slightly positive.Such years are slightly more likely to be accompanied by colder than average winters.

2.SST's.

End of May north atlantic SST,s are generally most closely linked to winter CET.Howebver I always have trouble idenitfying  a clear tripole pattern which is the cold indicator.Maybe Gavin P can give his verdict on what signal is coming from May SST's.The pattern seems to show cold anomalies off NE USA and Canada and to the east of Iceland with above average in Mid Atlantic.

3.QBO.

In autumn 2012 the QBO was in negative mode andthis npersoted though winter 2012/13.This Autumn the QBO is in positive territory normally supposed to indicate warmer winters.However this indicator is somewhat unreiable as the cold winter of 2010/11 was positive and the warm winter of 2011/12 was negative!

4.Sunspot Activity.

Cycle 24 is the weakest cycle since the early 20Th century.It now looks as if the peak was 96.7 in Nov 2011,witha secondary peak of 78.7 in May this year.Overall activity level is low and lower than fprecast.However work by the University of readind and METO suggest the strongest link to the CET is at solar minimum.

5.Models.

CFSv 2 shows broadly neutral temperature  conditions over the UK,with precipitationslightly  below average.The trend over th elast month or  seems to have been a shift on th ewarm anomaly towards SE Europe.

Meto tercile probability maps  shows no clear temperature sinal obver the UK although warmer than aveage probabilities in the Arctic region.Precipitation is broadly normal and a slight  tendency for higher than average pressure to ther north of the UK and slightly lower pressure towards southern europe.

6.Seasonal Pattern Matching.

The very cold dry spring has a 75% chance of being followed bya colder than average winter.The very dry very warm summer is not astrong indicator either way.

7.Conclusion.

Signals are variable  all rather weakand suggesting  a near average winter.It seems best to llok at the trends in the CFSv2 models and  the METO probability maps before making a conclusion at the end of November!

Some links for the indicator discussion above.

ENSO discussion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

SST,s

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.5.27.2013.gif

QBO

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Solar Activity

 http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6

CFS V2 Forecasts

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

METO probaility maps (nov-Jan)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

So what do you make of the indicators.I,m particularly interested in your views on the SST signal- as i said I find the maps diifucult to interpret.Also I havent had achance to see ice cover data yet although possibly that's a bit early.

Could I ask vis this post for the mods to amke this topic a sticky.Thanks.

As long as the Azores high keeps close to us we wont be seeing much in the way of cold, as seen in previous winters. That said I personally think that the weak activity of the sun will assist in any cold weather that gets to us, being very cold.

Thanks for the work on this and the links. I am not a great believer in trying to predict so far ahead but the data is out there for anyone willing to spend hours trying to determine whether there is a link between the myriad of parameters and the consequent anomilies season by season.
You say that looking again at the end of November for signals would be better. I agree, but it won't stop us discussing the prospects

If a dry or very dry winter results than a drought is likely next year for sure.

Thanks Neil,agree plenty to discuss before November end -just that I dont feel signals are clear enough for me to nail my colours to the mast yet!

Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country. 

We are due one. 

Gut feeling is a rather ordinary winter with no prolonged, widespread, cold or snow.

And using my patent Antipodean method, it's looking like a rather mild winter with probably at least one record warm month    Though this does not preclude some decent snow, especially in upland areas.

We're just as much due a cold, snowy winter.

Good job personal preferences don't affect the weather, isn't it?

You what

Indeed 4 out of the past 5 winters have been coldand i would be suprised if this coming winter

will be cold as well although we are bound to get some cold spells.

We are long overdue a wet winter with well above average rainfall and that is what im hoping for

 Marcus, My job role these days means that snow and bitterly cold weather results in days and days away from home. In the last 4 years I reckon I've only played in the stuff a couple of times.

Having said all that I will probably still get very excited when the beast starts to stir in those FI charts. 

Indeed Darren. It is a good job that preferences don't affect the type of weather we get.  

[sn_appr] [sn_appr] [sn_appr]

Steve, do I detect Physical warfare!

Psychological I would have thought.

Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country. We are due one.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Steve, do I detect Physical warfare!

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 

Psychological I would have thought.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Yeah thats what I meant.

I thought some places had that last winter, at least at the start.

The QBO is trending strongly positive now so it looks like we're looking at a strong polar vortex this winter increasing the likelihood of a mainly westerly flow over the UK.

if only twas that easy justin. part of the jigsaw but not an overriding factor (neutral ENSO may give it a bigger piece though). i can confidently state that the upcoming winter will be colder than the summer just ended .

As I said - "increasing the likelihood". Not guaranteeing. Neutral ENSO conditions (if that is what we end up with) will help but the state of the polar vortex is a major factor when it comes to western European winters. We end up relying upon significant SSWs to displace the PV and divert the Atlantic train.

Scott

Penicuik 188 asl

Winter 2011/12 was a non-event. A totally mind numblingly boring mild winter.

I'd love a nice cold winter, but like has been said, personal preference doesn't make a difference. 

However, a mild winter is not necessarily due, and we are still three months away.

If we look back at the winter of 2011/12 we will remember how there was a lot of hype about a winter like no other for forty years etc. It didn't happen in the end, all the strong signals that apparently showed a cold winter approaching did their business elsewhere, and such a change could happen again in this case.

I agree that easterly/north easterly winds can produce some beasty winters, but is it not also possible that such blasts can come from the north and Greenland? Such blasts are possibly not as liely to have the same strength as a 'beast from the east' but nevertheless we could expect something quite icy from there.

Also, a cold winter simply means colder than average, which I think is often forgotten. An averag winter is certainly capable of producing some icy/snowy spells.

As for mild winters, they are hardly going to be indian summers. If anything, we would probably see a miserable and boring 6 degrees with western wind and rain. 

To be honest I can't remember when there was last a mid and dry winter, but this doesn't mean 'we are due one'. In fact more than anything it proves that they are very unlikely.

I'm 60 but like a big kid I still run around the room and jump up and down when snow has fallen 

I agree apart from a dusting one morning in mid December and about 3-4 inches one evening in February with a week of cold it was a boring Winter, quite disappointing compared to the previous ones. I'm glad last Winter was better.