Hopefully we wont make the same mistake in 7 months time .......me included

Gooner remember even the mighty METO got the winter wrong.In late October they went for above average temps and on the dry side.In late November they switched to slightly below average temperatures.

Dont think any of models got the very wet bit right.

It wa s adifficult winter to cal with few clear indciators and the couple of indicators SST's/ QBO contradictory.

Just seen an item re pattern persistence.American scinetist saying that  the jet is  meandering more and the increasing amplitude of the meanadering jet is contributing to the persistence of weather patterns sucha sthe one we are.in at present 

Expectation is that the frequency of such events will increase.Possible cause warming in the arctic shifting jet pattern.

Its certainly true that most of our very mild winters rae charcterised by a very straight jet which is not the case this winter

The good news for coldies is that a persistent menadering jet in the right place could give us persistent cold.

I guess it's only a matter of time before madden is vindicated by another 'dec '10'. I assume these persistent patterns she talks about are also applicable to other times in the year? Over the past 10/15 years we have seen hot summers (w Europe and Russia come to mind, very warm and dry springs/autumns, late winters blah blah blah ........

To me, that says its just climate and we just need to be adaptable and get on with it.

I think most will just want a dry spell now, and one that lasts for as long as possible, whether it is of the mild or cold type.

I agree but I am probably in the minority in the fact that a wintry spell is wanted

Yes Matty

Can we replace this thread with 2014 Spring Prospects please?

No point, Spring will be Winter just like Winter was Autumn 😃 then Summer will be spring...Confusing I agree :-D

Anyone remember seeing Sarajevo Bosnia on the news in 2012? mind boggling how much epic snow they got, imagine the chaos here if all this below happened?! 

http://landofmysojourn.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/sarajevo-snow1.jpg

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/02/12/article-2100136-11B2CF42000005DC-21_964x543.jpg

http://diplopundit.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/us-emb_snowy-streets-of-sarajevo.jpg

http://unofficialnetworks.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Screen-Shot-2012-04-03-at-3.04.17-PM.png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GkTbYcesYZ0/Ty7TtjRfkMI/AAAAAAAAFgQ/XucK16od_bg/s1600/DSC_4543.JPG

Now where's my car?! lol

http://media.twnmm.com/storage/5585934/1085

http://mojaslikasarajeva.net/assets/pic/photo/640x480/7f8b90ef3fbb1dd1993fc5f55e477975_065.JPG

http://media.emirates247.com/images/2012/02/harbor17.jpg

As winter draws to a close, a remarkable illustration of our horrible winter in this sea level presure composite anomaly of the last two months.

If only, they are quite superb pictures

Now Winter is over who got it right.?

CFS I think called it right showing postive anomalies over Europe pretty consistently.

Was there any forecasting organisation that got it right?

It was a trickyone to forecast.No really strong indicator and conflicting signals.I initailly went for milder than average and then Like METO switched to beow average at the end of November

I don't think anyone could have reasonably been expected to forecast the winter to have been as bad as it turned out.

Months with the lowest mean pressure in Aberdeen since 1866:

Feb 2014: 986.0mb
Feb 1990: 990.1mb
Nov 2000: 992.2mb
Dec 1929: 993.2mb
Jan 1948: 993.3mb
Dec 1868: 993.6mb
Mar 1876: 993.6mb
Jan 2014: 994.3mb
Jan 1936: 994.4mb
Feb 1910: 994.6mb
Nov 1877: 994.9mb

Seasons with the lowest mean pressure since 1866:

Winter 2013/14: 993.9mb
Winter 1914/15: 997.5mb
Winter 1909/10: 999.3mb
Winter 1989/90: 999.8mb
Autumn 2000 : 1000.4mb
Winter 1935/36: 1000.6mb
Winter 1876/77: 1001.0mb
Winter 1994/95: 1001.3mb
Winter 1950/51: 1001.7mb
Autumn 1923 : 1001.9mb

Really puts this hateful season in context. To break records by that margin after 150 years is incredible, especially given that high pressure dominated in the first half of December. Just 989mb average for 18th Dec to 28th Feb. It didn't reach 1020mb after 11th December and didn't even reach 1010mb after 12th January.

If I recall the CMA (Chinese meteorological administration) were going for a much wetter than normal Winter for western Europe.

Winter 2013-14.........Surely the worst winter ever, if not the worst winter during the lifetime of TWO!!

OK 2nd review! 

"I do a personal yearly forecast every year (at least I have for the last 5 years). I've never published before though, thought I might here anyway see if it holds up.

2014

January

Milder than average especially at first and very unsettled, a chance of cold snowy periods later.

CET above normal

February

Potentially coldest month of the winter, some snow showers likely in S and E. Unlikely to be overly cold or prolonged though.

CET below normal

March

Settled, dry, rather chilly. Some late frosts and even wintry showers. Sunshine prevalent

CET below normal

April

Showery. Slightly below average temperatures. Some settled spells

CET slightly below average

May

 Extremely dry and sunny. Chilly winds at first, although very warm weather possible later. Perhaps an early heatwave.

CET around average

June

Very dry theme continuing. Some rather cool sea breezes making temps chilly at times. Somewhat below average temperatures.

CET slightly below average

July

Another dry month especially in the east. However it will be warmer than june with a few thundery outbreaks possible

CET above average

August

The dry run ends with august. Changeable, sometimes very wet or showery but still often mild.

CET slightly above average

September

Dry, rather warm and perhaps thundery. 'Indian summer'.

CET much above average

October

Probably a little drier than average

CET around average

November

Drier than average theme perhaps continuing. Average temps, becoming chilly.

CET slightly below average

December

Changable. Mix of short cold wintry spells and warmer mild spells.

CET around average.

I put quite a lot of work into these every year (despite them looking so short). Although only people I know have got to see them before. Its based on a bit of pattern matching and long range models mostly. I don't expect it to be that accurate; mostly just for fun. "

While I think I did well for January, February has been a bit of a failure (though I would note that it was substantially better than some long range forecasts!*) It was not the coldest month of the winter (not the warmest either but hardly a consolation), there were some snow showers in the S and E; at least more than January (80% of the snow I have seen since November fell in february but again really not saying much). And given that I predicted a below average CET the only part that was right was the admission that any cold spell would be unlikely to be severe or long lasting! So a complete failure of a month, but then you can't get them all. I hope to do better for march.  

*To be clear I am not talking about the metoffice (or TWO) . I think their LRF were actually pretty good especially the one issued end of December.