Higher probability of more snow than normal due to the negative NAO, but higher probability of drier than normal conditions. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/r/q/A3_plots-precip-DJF.pdf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/c/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf

I'd be happy with that. Sounds like a lot of UK centred anticyclones as mentioned above. Anything is better than wetter and warmer than normal IMO, yet anything can happen as the November forecast/outcome showed.

I've enjpyed the dry, frosty Autumn spell of recent, so I'd welcome a frosty winter.

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Higher probability of more snow than normal due to the negative NAO, but higher probability of drier than normal conditions. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/r/q/A3_plots-precip-DJF.pdf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/c/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf

I'd be happy with that. Sounds like a lot of UK centred anticyclones as mentioned above. Anything is better than wetter and warmer than normal IMO, yet anything can happen as the November forecast/outcome showed.

I've enjpyed the dry, frosty Autumn spell of recent, so I'd welcome a frosty winter.

I wouldn't be too upset either

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112418/cfs-8-12-2013.png?18

December is dry and cold for the most part from CFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112418/cfs-6-12-2013.png?18

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112418/cfs-8-12-2013.png?18

December is dry and cold for the most part from CFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112418/cfs-6-12-2013.png?18

That's not too dry Marcus.

Below average temps and average rainfall on those charts....that would equate to a little bit of  IF it verified of course.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112418/cfs-8-12-2013.png?18

December is dry and cold for the most part from CFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112418/cfs-6-12-2013.png?18

That's not too dry Marcus.

Below average temps and average rainfall on those charts....that would equate to a little bit of  IF it verified of course.

for the W and NW it is well below average being fair , IMBY and YBY would be ok

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for the W and NW it is well below average being fair , IMBY and YBY would be ok

 

Given how wet the W & NW generally are, even below-average PPN is still far from dry!!

 

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for the W and NW it is well below average being fair , IMBY and YBY would be ok

 

Given how wet the W & NW generally are, even below-average PPN is still far from dry!!

 

Valid

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I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

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I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Great work Martin, and pretty much in line with my expectations as well.

Really good effort and good luck with your forecast. Can't see at the moment that you will be very far off the mark to be honest.

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I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Great work Martin, and pretty much in line with my expectations as well.

Really good effort and good luck with your forecast. Can't see at the moment that you will be very far off the mark to be honest.

Lol, it's as much chance of being right as a cold winter forecast as there's plenty of long range models including the MetO going for this. Having said that though the weather will do just what the hell it wants to do and no hopecasting, wild guesses or pattern matching will alter that fact.

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Great work Martin, and pretty much in line with my expectations as well.

Really good effort and good luck with your forecast. Can't see at the moment that you will be very far off the mark to be honest.

Lol, it's as much chance of being right as a cold winter forecast as there's plenty of long range models including the MetO going for this. Having said that though the weather will do just what the hell it wants to do and no hopecasting, wild guesses or pattern matching will alter that fact.

Very true. 

I still think many amatuers are gunning for a mild winter simply on the basis we are 'due' one.. having the last few winters on the colder side (or at least seeing very cold & snowy spells).

It will be interesting to see how many of these mild/ very mild forecasts verify and which ones are drastically reviewed if necessary.  

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Great work Martin, and pretty much in line with my expectations as well.

Really good effort and good luck with your forecast. Can't see at the moment that you will be very far off the mark to be honest.

Lol, it's as much chance of being right as a cold winter forecast as there's plenty of long range models including the MetO going for this. Having said that though the weather will do just what the hell it wants to do and no hopecasting, wild guesses or pattern matching will alter that fact.

Very true. 

I still think many amatuers are gunning for a mild winter simply on the basis we are 'due' one.. having the last few winters on the colder side (or at least seeing very cold & snowy spells).

It will be interesting to see how many of these mild/ very mild forecasts verify and which ones are drastically reviewed if necessary.  

I disagree with that. I never go for anything because we are "due one". I think a lot of amateurs use pattern matching as a major ingredient, and there is no doubt that the pattern we are currently in does not lend itself to a cold winter - certainly not the first half. There is little or no evidence of northern blocking, which has been very notable in recent winters.

Without northern blocking, it's very difficult to get other building blocks in place for a cold winter, and I think that anybody who attempts an LRF (or LRG) or whatever you want to call it, should at least be treated with a little respect.

Clearly Martin is one of the good guys on TWO and I think it's fairly clear that he has put a lot of work into his forecast. Whether it proves to be accurate or not is anybody's guess, and as many people say, there's a lot of guess work involved, but don't poo-poo the idea just because you don't agree with it.

I agree with Martin that the pattern this year (so far) just does not lend itself to a colder than average winter.

Should northern blocking become prevalent later in the winter, then maybe we will get something, but I can't see this happening in the first month of winter at least.

---

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Great work Martin, and pretty much in line with my expectations as well.

Really good effort and good luck with your forecast. Can't see at the moment that you will be very far off the mark to be honest.

Lol, it's as much chance of being right as a cold winter forecast as there's plenty of long range models including the MetO going for this. Having said that though the weather will do just what the hell it wants to do and no hopecasting, wild guesses or pattern matching will alter that fact.

Very true. 

I still think many amatuers are gunning for a mild winter simply on the basis we are 'due' one.. having the last few winters on the colder side (or at least seeing very cold & snowy spells).

It will be interesting to see how many of these mild/ very mild forecasts verify and which ones are drastically reviewed if necessary.  

I disagree with that. I never go for anything because we are "due one". I think a lot of amateurs use pattern matching as a major ingredient, and there is no doubt that the pattern we are currently in does not lend itself to a cold winter - certainly not the first half. There is little or no evidence of northern blocking, which has been very notable in recent winters.

Without northern blocking, it's very difficult to get other building blocks in place for a cold winter, and I think that anybody who attempts an LRF (or LRG) or whatever you want to call it, should at least be treated with a little respect.

Clearly Martin is one of the good guys on TWO and I think it's fairly clear that he has put a lot of work into his forecast. Whether it proves to be accurate or not is anybody's guess, and as many people say, there's a lot of guess work involved, but don't poo-poo the idea just because you don't agree with it.

I agree with Martin that the pattern this year (so far) just does not lend itself to a colder than average winter.

Should northern blocking become prevalent later in the winter, then maybe we will get something, but I can't see this happening in the first month of winter at least.

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I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Interesting Martin.  Clearly you think we're going to see a westerly flow dominate, with high pressure slowly easing back as winter progresses, introducing first the more changeable mild and wet conditions and then progressively bringing colder outbreaks.  That pattern has been missing for several winters now and maybe with the sun more active again it's a decent call.

Obviously in terms of reaction in here you might as well be Mr Scrooge annoucing that Xmas has been cancelled........

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Ive been reading this thread and it seems to be a hard call as what sort of winter we are likely to get,wether its a mild one as some suggest or a cold one as is also suggested. If you read online at some of the forecasts it seems they are pointing to really cold and snow,i guess we will have to wait and see what develops. Still an interesting read though and i think i believe this site as oposed to others.

I personally would love a cold winter with snow,proper snow but will that happen,time will tell,keep up the wofk chaps.

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Interesting Martin.  Clearly you think we're going to see a westerly flow dominate, with high pressure slowly easing back as winter progresses, introducing first the more changeable mild and wet conditions and then progressively bringing colder outbreaks.  That pattern has been missing for several winters now and maybe with the sun more active again it's a decent call.

Obviously in terms of reaction in here you might as well be Mr Scrooge annoucing that Xmas has been cancelled........

Not at all as I'm in the Matty camp for LRF, it's a case of the best guess wins at the end of the day.

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Interesting Martin.  Clearly you think we're going to see a westerly flow dominate, with high pressure slowly easing back as winter progresses, introducing first the more changeable mild and wet conditions and then progressively bringing colder outbreaks.  That pattern has been missing for several winters now and maybe with the sun more active again it's a decent call.

Obviously in terms of reaction in here you might as well be Mr Scrooge annoucing that Xmas has been cancelled........

Not at all as I'm in the Matty camp for LRF, it's a case of the best guess wins at the end of the day.

My sentiments exactly.

Leave the long rangers to the big guys (MetO). No offence intended to anyone but anything else is just for fun.

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Interesting Martin.  Clearly you think we're going to see a westerly flow dominate, with high pressure slowly easing back as winter progresses, introducing first the more changeable mild and wet conditions and then progressively bringing colder outbreaks.  That pattern has been missing for several winters now and maybe with the sun more active again it's a decent call.

Obviously in terms of reaction in here you might as well be Mr Scrooge annoucing that Xmas has been cancelled........

Not at all as I'm in the Matty camp for LRF, it's a case of the best guess wins at the end of the day.

My sentiments exactly.

Leave the long rangers to the big guys (MetO). No offence intended to anyone but anything else is just for fun.

And the big guys take on the coming Winter is ????????

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And the big guys take on the coming Winter is ????????

There is a 96% probability that Winter will fall between Dec 1st and Feb 28th


(the other 4% is on account I'm not certain if it's a leap year or not )

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I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Interesting Martin.  Clearly you think we're going to see a westerly flow dominate, with high pressure slowly easing back as winter progresses, introducing first the more changeable mild and wet conditions and then progressively bringing colder outbreaks.  That pattern has been missing for several winters now and maybe with the sun more active again it's a decent call.

Obviously in terms of reaction in here you might as well be Mr Scrooge annoucing that Xmas has been cancelled........

Not at all as I'm in the Matty camp for LRF, it's a case of the best guess wins at the end of the day.

My sentiments exactly.

Leave the long rangers to the big guys (MetO). No offence intended to anyone but anything else is just for fun.

And the big guys take on the coming Winter is ????????

Probably incorrect 

 

....on a serious note, they have gone with a higher probability of colder than average.