High presure needs to be over greenland and scandi for real cold a set up like last march in january would be perfect

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013112512/run3/cfsnh-2-1074.png?12

JFF JFF JFF

Early in January CFS has us frozen out

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013112512/cfs-8-1-2014.png?12

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

 

JFF JFF JFF

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😂

And the big guys take on the coming Winter is ????????

There is a 96% probability that Winter will fall between Dec 1st and Feb 28th

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(the other 4% is on account I'm not certain if it's a leap year or not

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)

😂 😂 😂

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Interesting Martin.  Clearly you think we're going to see a westerly flow dominate, with high pressure slowly easing back as winter progresses, introducing first the more changeable mild and wet conditions and then progressively bringing colder outbreaks.  That pattern has been missing for several winters now and maybe with the sun more active again it's a decent call.

Obviously in terms of reaction in here you might as well be Mr Scrooge annoucing that Xmas has been cancelled........

Not at all as I'm in the Matty camp for LRF, it's a case of the best guess wins at the end of the day.

My sentiments exactly.

Leave the long rangers to the big guys (MetO). No offence intended to anyone but anything else is just for fun.

And the big guys take on the coming Winter is ????????

Probably incorrect 

 

....on a serious note, they have gone with a higher probability of colder than average. 

Just checking

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I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

I think this forecast could turn out reasonably well. The probability of the AO averaging positive this winter is high [see my post #578], and the QBO may start to change sign around February.

Next Saturday looks interesting ! Would be nice to get some pre-christmas snow to get the coldies grinning!!! Here's hoping it will hold.
Scott
Penicuik. 188m ASL

net weather goes for average winter,what ever that is.

In addition to our esteemed leader Brian Gaze, Gav from gavs weather vids, and the metoffice. The other winter forecast that I would strongly recommend is from the other place . Being serious, though, I thought I would post the link here because the technical forecast is extremely detailed and the quality looks excellent. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-in-depth;sess=

They suggest a slightly colder/drier than average winter, with some blocking but 'not a repeat of 1947'!

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In addition to our esteemed leader Brian Gaze, Gav from gavs weather vids, and the metoffice. The other winter forecast that I would strongly recommend is from the other place . Being serious, though, I thought I would post the link here because the technical forecast is extremely detailed and the quality looks excellent. 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-in-depth;sess=

They suggest a slightly colder/drier than average winter, with some blocking but 'not a repeat of 1947'!

A bit cheeky Q.imo.

The guys here do a great job.

 

Why would anyone recommend any seasonal forecast, let alone strongly recommend? That gives the impression there's an ounce of worth to any of them, which there isn't. All the technical presentation in the world changes nothing.

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Why would anyone recommend any seasonal forecast? That gives the impression there's an ounce of worth to any of them, which there isn't.

Really Matty? Do you not put any faith in LRFs? You would never have guessed! 

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Why would anyone recommend any seasonal forecast, let alone strongly recommend? That gives the impression there's an ounce of worth to any of them, which there isn't. All the technical presentation in the world changes nothing.

When I first visited TWO in the early noughties, the only thing I really read was the long range forecasts . I don't agree that they have no credibility; they just arn't going to be as accurate as short term ones. 

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Why would anyone recommend any seasonal forecast, let alone strongly recommend? That gives the impression there's an ounce of worth to any of them, which there isn't. All the technical presentation in the world changes nothing.

When I first visited TWO in the early noughties, the only thing I really read was the long range forecasts . I don't agree that they have no credibility; they just arn't going to be as accurate as short term ones. 

Well you're wrong I'm afraid.

As I've said before - show me the link to the agency that produces regularly accurate seasonal forecasts and I'll hold my hands up. There isn't one. Even the professionals will tell you seasonal forecasting is currently impossible.

I would go as far as to say they are a complete load of bull and a waste of time if it weren't that nothing has ever been achieved by giving up. Of course it has to be continued to be explored, but to suggest there any one out there is better than another, let alone from an amateur site, is total and utter nonsense, and misleading nonsense at that. I have a real bugbear about this. It annoys the hell out of me when people confidently claim something that is totally wrong.

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When I say bugbear, I should probably say bugber <-------- topical 😝

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Why would anyone recommend any seasonal forecast, let alone strongly recommend? That gives the impression there's an ounce of worth to any of them, which there isn't. All the technical presentation in the world changes nothing.

When I first visited TWO in the early noughties, the only thing I really read was the long range forecasts . I don't agree that they have no credibility; they just arn't going to be as accurate as short term ones. 

Well you're wrong I'm afraid.

As I've said before - show me the link to the agency that produces regularly accurate seasonal forecasts and I'll hold my hands up. There isn't one. Even the professionals will tell you seasonal forecasting is currently impossible.

I would go as far as to say they are a complete load of bull and a waste of time if it weren't that nothing has ever been achieved by giving up. Of course it has to be continued to be explored, but to suggest there any one out there is better than another, let alone from an amateur site, is total and utter nonsense, and misleading nonsense at that. I have a real bugbear about this. It annoys the hell out of me when people confidently claim something that is totally wrong.

I propose an experiment then. You can probably find a web archive of Brians TWO seasonal forecats. He predicts precipatation and temperature CETs each quater in five bands. Get say a few years worth of his forecasts and compare to the actual CETs. Of course all he has to do is show his forecasts are significantly better than what you would expect by chance. I would then assume temperature/precip is distributed normally as an approximation and then take his predictions and compare the standard deviation (although you may have to transform from a binomial which is discrete) with the mean of brians error. If the later is significantly smaller than the former, then that would be evidence in his favour. 

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Forget all this warmist rubbish, it will be a damn cold winter as the very quiet sun confirms .

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I second Matty here. There's way too much guess work going on WRT specifics in these amateur forecasts. It's easy for them to try and gain credibility when a long ranger is released but they're not commonly put in the spotlight at the end of the period when things didn't pan out accordingly.

Why would anyone recommend any seasonal forecast, let alone strongly recommend? That gives the impression there's an ounce of worth to any of them, which there isn't. All the technical presentation in the world changes nothing.

When I first visited TWO in the early noughties, the only thing I really read was the long range forecasts

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

. I don't agree that they have no credibility; they just arn't going to be as accurate as short term ones.

Well you're wrong I'm afraid.

As I've said before - show me the link to the agency that produces regularly accurate seasonal forecasts and I'll hold my hands up. There isn't one. Even the professionals will tell you seasonal forecasting is currently impossible.

I would go as far as to say they are a complete load of bull and a waste of time if it weren't that nothing has ever been achieved by giving up. Of course it has to be continued to be explored, but to suggest there any one out there is better than another, let alone from an amateur site, is total and utter nonsense, and misleading nonsense at that. I have a real bugbear about this. It annoys the hell out of me when people confidently claim something that is totally wrong.

I propose an experiment then. You can probably find a web archive of Brians TWO seasonal forecats. He predicts precipatation and temperature CETs each quater in five bands. Get say a few years worth of his forecasts and compare to the actual CETs. Of course all he has to do is show his forecasts are significantly better than what you would expect by chance. I would then assume temperature/precip is distributed normally as an approximation and then take his predictions and compare the standard deviation (although you may have to transform from a binomial which is discrete) with the mean of brians error. If the later is significantly smaller than the former, then that would be evidence in his favour.

My plan was much easier. Show me a link to the agency that consistently produces accurate seasonal forecasts.

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This will be the first winter forecast for NW by Ed O'Toole with Stewart (GP) having left to take up a position as a weather advisor to a private company.