I would like to thank Quantum for linking to my first ever winter forecast and for your comments.
The NW winter forecast is the first I have ever attempted and I now know how difficult it is to collect ones thoughts and research and put it all down on paper and realise how much hard work must go into a forecast and commend Brian on producing one every year.
However, I do take issue with those comments that consider attempting a long range forecast is a waste of time. I do not believe this to be the case. We may not be at a position just yet when the verification rates of longer ranges forecasts is particularly high, however, this shouldn't stop us trying to improve the success in this challenging field.
It may have not gone unnoticed to some of the more astute on here that when certain factors are present there is a correlation to the atmospheric conditions and the positioning of long wave troughs and ridges. This is no coincidence and even though the weather patterns may seem chaotic in fact there is indeed some order behind this chaos. A prime example of this can be demonstrated during the active phase of a strong La Nina in the NH winter. The La Nina conditions can be well forecast in advance and so with that can the atmospheric response wrt long wave trough and ridge positioning. These can be demonstrated through reanalysis of H500 anomalies. And this isn't limited to the ENSO state - the same can be shown on other factors such as the QBO, solar flux, SST's October snow cover rate and gain and so on and so forth. We are only at the beginning of the complex job of fitting all these jigsaw pieces together, but by writing this off without even trying we will never progress.
I suspect that those who believe that it is a waste of time to attempt to put the atmospheric jigsaw pieces into some kind of order are being a little short sighted - perhaps they would have been saying that a five day forecast would have been a waste of time 40 years ago, or still believe that the stratosphere has no influence on the underlying tropospheric pattern. Certainly the energy company who now pay my predecessor for his long range forecasts do not believe it to be waste of time....
I welcome those who try and increase the understanding of the world we live in and will not try to belittle their achievements whether they are successful or not.
And on that note I would like to wish Brian the best of luck on his forthcoming winter forecast and would like to acknowledge and appreciate the time and effort that he has put into, even before it is released. I hope that others here will have the good grace to do the same and if they can't then perhaps it is better not to comment at all.
c