You're making the classic error of confusing the quality of the presentation with the quality of the forecast. Some LRFs are extremely well wrote and thought out, but are they more accurate than, say, Moomins? Arguably not, and that's my point and that of many others.

It's not confrontational, it's a view. No one has to like it, but you would hope they would accept it rather than belittling it.

Also, TWO isn't "Famous for it's long range forecasts" as far as I've been aware in the 10+ years I've been on here.

Gavin, Brian and a few others are very well respected amateur forecasters. No one, certainly not I, is attacking them in anyway. Gavin is a good friend of mine, but that doesn't meant the ethos of long range forecasting cannot or should not be questioned. As I've said before, when an agency starts churning out seasonal forecasts with a consistent degree of accuracy then we'll be getting somewhere. Obviously practice makes perfect, so all attempts that are based on a reputable theory are valid, but my personal opinion is that seasonal forecasting may never be possible with any real degree of accuracy due to that countless variables. The professionals currently struggle beyond 10 days, let alone 90. Maybe one day.

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You're making the classic error of confusing the quality of the presentation with the quality of the forecast. Some LRFs are extremely well wrote and thought out, but are they more accurate than, say, Moomins? Arguably not, and that's my point and that of many others. It's not confrontational, it's a view. No one has to like it, but you would hope they would accept it rather than belittling it. Also, TWO isn't "Famous for it's long range forecasts" as far as I've been aware in the 10+ years I've been on here. Gavin, Brian and a few others are very well respected amateur forecasters. No one, certainly not I, is attacking them in anyway. Gavin is a good friend of mine, but that doesn't meant the ethos of long range forecasting cannot or should not be questioned. As I've said before, when an agency starts churning out seasonal forecasts with a consistent degree of accuracy then we'll be getting somewhere. Obviously practice makes perfect, so all attempts that are based on a reputable theory are valid, but my personal opinion is that seasonal forecasting may never be possible with any real degree of accuracy due to that countless variables. The professionals currently struggle beyond 10 days, let alone 90. Maybe one day.

Matty...are you suggesting that my forecasts are not thought out?

I can assure you that they are, and I spend a lot of time on them.

I have actually had some very accurate ones in the past, but equally some that were a complete fail - such is the nature of LRF'ing.

Despite what you say, it is not ALL guess work - there really is some method in my LRF as there is in most I would suggest.

As you say, if we just gave up doing them, then we would never get anywhere.

Weather forecasting is very much an inexact science, but that doesn't (or at least shouldn't) prevent people from trying their methodology into producing something.

My methodology is always put at the top of the forecast, and I don't hide the fact that it is predominantly pattern matching, SSTs and sunspot activty.

I don't make any brash statements any more (I know I used to and got up the nose of a lot of Mods, yourself particularly).

I just publish my thoughts on this fantastic forum, and let everyone else read into it what they will.

One thing I don't do is over-sensationalise anything. If I see signals for a mild winter, I will call a mild winter. I won't write what people want to read, because that really would be totally pointless and a waste of my many hours going into producing it.

As mentioned before, nothing and nobody will stop me doing this.

I think this is my 7th winter LRF, and I've had varying degrees of success.

What I will do at some stage - perhaps after my 10th - is have a lot at stats and accuracy and see if I can filter some more methods into what I produce in the future.

By that I mean, a sample of 10 of my own LRFs, using EXACTLY the same methodology each year, will hopefully start to produce a pattern of sorts.

My best call was 2010-11, my worst was arguably last winter, when I did not see the bitter and frigid March (but did anybody?).

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Matty...are you suggesting that my forecasts are not thought out?

No. I used your forecast as an example of an amateur LRF as opposed to one from a professional agency and posed the question was the professional one more or less likely to be accurate than the amateur one? Personally I think accuracy may well be rather similar over a spread.

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Matty...are you suggesting that my forecasts are not thought out?

No. I used your forecast as an example of an amateur LRF as opposed to one from a professional agency and posed the question was the professional one more or less likely to be accurate than the amateur one? Personally I think accuracy may well be rather similar over a spread.

Fair enough.  One thing I had learned is not to ram it down everyone's throat all the time like I used to.

It is, I concur, a very inexact science, and truth is, at the moment, there is little or no evidence that any LRF is worth looking it.

But as has been mentioned, giving up on them is certainly not an option.

I am absolutely certain that at some stage in the future, there will be ways to accurately map and forecast world weather patterns, but that could be in the 22nd century or beyond? Who knows? That is what research is all about.

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Well done to Ed to carrying the baton on...

Its a thankless task delivering a winter forecast & you can only ever deliver the broad brush strokes for the NH-

What Winter forecasting should be all about is looking for the longwave pattern & subsequent 50/60N height anomalies ( if any)-

The problem with that is unless you can forecast with confidence a high pressure anomaly over greenland or scandi then thats really the extent you have-

Anything else has so much volatility in relation to the UK you can end up with 1 longwave pattern across the NH that delivers X to the UK with a very similar longwave pattern the next season that delivers almost the inverse-

So what are you left with- 2 main metrics-

 

Probability of it being above or below average-

Rainfall- pointless doing total rainfall- should be rain days V the average in the 90 day period.

 

One issue I have is all the reanalysis & all the loading patterns for example for things like QBO/ MJO etc are based on historics-

However if your in a current period of change like the last 4 years have been then maybe its all fruitless as new measures like the OPI become much more dynamic .......

 

S

I think behind Matty's jackboot humour is a rather valid point in that we are still no nearer in producing an accurate LRF than we were 30 years ago, that's not to say they are a waste of time as if we don't try and improve our understandings of a chaotic climate then we may as put up the shutters now. IMO there is far too much prevalence given to certain background signals such as the QBO though I tend to agree on the importance of the Stratosphere playing ball and I look forward to the day when we can produce an a fairly accurate LRF year in year out.

I think behind Matty's jackboot humour is a rather valid point in that we are still no nearer in producing an accurate LRF than we were 30 years ago, that's not to say they are a waste of time as if we don't try and improve our understandings of a chaotic climate then we may as put up the shutters now. IMO there is far too much prevalence given to certain background signals such as the QBO though I tend to agree on the importance of the Stratosphere playing ball and I look forward to the day when we can produce an a fairly accurate LRF year in year out.

Agreed.

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Fun for those constructing, but LRF's should really be called LRG's - long range guesses. Only read a few but they really aren't worth the time. Can be very misleading if got into the wrong hands when cherry picked with sensationalist headlines written.

Are most people really forecasters? I just see them as model interpreter's?

Thanks to Ed and Netweather for the forecast - Certainly a very interesting and extensive piece of work!

As my name has been brought up in this thread I'll just say that it really doesn't bother me whether people think my longer range efforts are rubbish, a waste of time, etc...

When you make forecasts (be it short, medium or long range) you have to be prepared to take criticism and to let people form their own opinions on your work (be it good or bad)

In a way, without sounding too precious, we forecasters are like artists (some may even be con-artists, but thats another point  ) our forecasts's are our works of art (our painting, our novel, our piece of music, our movie) we create them, we mould them and then we put them out into the public domain. And when we put them out into the public domain we lose ownership of the them and they become public things.

That means, like any work of art, the public will make their own opinion as to their worth or lack of. We can't dictate what people think or what people take away from our work. We can only put our work out there and then let if live or die on it's own merits.

So, my advice to anybody that get's upset when their work is criticised is simply to forget it (It may even be best to do what a lot of artists do and not even read what critics/the public say) and move on with your next forecast. You can't change what people think of your work and you can't do anything about it, so why worry?

As long as your having fun and enjoying the work your creating, the rest will look after itself.

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I think behind Matty's jackboot humour is a rather valid point in that we are still no nearer in producing an accurate LRF than we were 30 years ago, that's not to say they are a waste of time as if we don't try and improve our understandings of a chaotic climate then we may as put up the shutters now. IMO there is far too much prevalence given to certain background signals such as the QBO though I tend to agree on the importance of the Stratosphere playing ball and I look forward to the day when we can produce an a fairly accurate LRF year in year out.

It's interesting that LRF have improved dramamtically across the globe, particularly the tropics  but not for the North Atlantic and Western Europe. I think this is due to the chaotic nature of the Atlantic westerlies, the forcings are relatively weak so a definitive forecast is especially difficult.

Thanks to Ed and Netweather for the forecast - Certainly a very interesting and extensive piece of work!

As my name has been brought up in this thread I'll just say that it really doesn't bother me whether people think my longer range efforts are rubbish, a waste of time, etc...

When you make forecasts (be it short, medium or long range) you have to be prepared to take criticism and to let people form their own opinions on your work (be it good or bad)

In a way, without sounding too precious, we forecasters are like artists (some may even be con-artists, but thats another point  ) our forecasts's are our works of art (our painting, our novel, our piece of music, our movie) we create them, we mould them and then we put them out into the public domain. And when we put them out into the public domain we lose ownership of the them and they become public things.

That means, like any work of art, the public will make their own opinion as to their worth or lack of. We can't dictate what people think or what people take away from our work. We can only put our work out there and then let if live or die on it's own merits.

So, my advice to anybody that get's upset when their work is criticised is simply to forget it (It may even be best to do what a lot of artists do and not even read what critics/the public say) and move on with your next forecast. You can't change what people think of your work and you can't do anything about it, so why worry?

As long as your having fun and enjoying the work your creating, the rest will look after itself.

A top top post Gavin, and you are without a doubt one of the finest in your trade of amateur forecasters....Nobody surely would ever criticise your work, it's brilliant, and your website is awesome.

I visit it every day to see your videos, and they are always clear and concise.

What I like about your forecasts, is there is some technical stuff in there, but you explain it in such a way that even the most moderate layman would understand it.

That, in my view, makes you a top forecaster, and also a top orator.

Yes, artistry perhaps, but I think it goes a lot further than that.

You are very level-headed, never presumptious, and always clear and easy to follow.

Long may that continue. You are one of the best on here.

 

PS: (You can put that fiver in the post for singing your praises so highly!)

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Get your coat Gavin, I think you've pulled!

And put yours away again Matty, I think you've been dumped

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Get your coat Gavin, I think you've pulled!

And put yours away again Matty, I think you've been dumped

Haha....no not quite...but he is one of the best "experts" on here.

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Get your coat Gavin, I think you've pulled!

And put yours away again Matty, I think you've been dumped

Haha....no not quite...but he is one of the best "experts" on here.

An expert?...an 'ex' is a 'has been', and a 'spert' is a drip under pressure

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Get your coat Gavin, I think you've pulled!

And put yours away again Matty, I think you've been dumped

Haha....no not quite...but he is one of the best "experts" on here.

An expert?...an 'ex' is a 'has been', and a 'spert' is a drip under pressure

LOL.

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Get your coat Gavin, I think you've pulled!

And put yours away again Matty, I think you've been dumped

Thanks to Ed and Netweather for the forecast - Certainly a very interesting and extensive piece of work!

As my name has been brought up in this thread I'll just say that it really doesn't bother me whether people think my longer range efforts are rubbish, a waste of time, etc...

When you make forecasts (be it short, medium or long range) you have to be prepared to take criticism and to let people form their own opinions on your work (be it good or bad)

In a way, without sounding too precious, we forecasters are like artists (some may even be con-artists, but thats another point  ) our forecasts's are our works of art (our painting, our novel, our piece of music, our movie) we create them, we mould them and then we put them out into the public domain. And when we put them out into the public domain we lose ownership of the them and they become public things.

That means, like any work of art, the public will make their own opinion as to their worth or lack of. We can't dictate what people think or what people take away from our work. We can only put our work out there and then let if live or die on it's own merits.

So, my advice to anybody that get's upset when their work is criticised is simply to forget it (It may even be best to do what a lot of artists do and not even read what critics/the public say) and move on with your next forecast. You can't change what people think of your work and you can't do anything about it, so why worry?

As long as your having fun and enjoying the work your creating, the rest will look after itself.

A top top post Gavin, and you are without a doubt one of the finest in your trade of amateur forecasters....Nobody surely would ever criticise your work, it's brilliant, and your website is awesome.

I visit it every day to see your videos, and they are always clear and concise.

What I like about your forecasts, is there is some technical stuff in there, but you explain it in such a way that even the most moderate layman would understand it.

That, in my view, makes you a top forecaster, and also a top orator.

Yes, artistry perhaps, but I think it goes a lot further than that.

You are very level-headed, never presumptious, and always clear and easy to follow.

Long may that continue. You are one of the best on here.

 

PS: (You can put that fiver in the post for singing your praises so highly!)

WOW! Thanks for all of those kind words Moomin, it really does mean a great deal to know my work is being watched and enjoyed.  

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Get your coat Gavin, I think you've pulled!

And put yours away again Matty, I think you've been dumped

Haha....no not quite...but he is one of the best "experts" on here.

An expert?...an 'ex' is a 'has been', and a 'spert' is a drip under pressure

LOL.

---

Fun for those constructing, but LRF's should really be called LRG's - long range guesses. Only read a few but they really aren't worth the time. Can be very misleading if got into the wrong hands when cherry picked with sensationalist headlines written. Are most people really forecasters? I just see them as model interpreter's?

Pretty much agree.

Only have to look in the MO thread for the past 24hrs and it shows how things change in a short space of time with what's going to happen around t144, let alone the last week of Feb 2014. I would expect even for the most senior of forecasters upto a month is chellenging and after that would surely be based on opinion.

I respect those that try but till the day we can move from 3/5 day forecaster with accuracy to say 7/10 then past that shouldn't be taken too seriously and certainly not set in stone because of what someones opinion/view is.

On this very forum people were writing this winter off in early October which is ridiculous imo. We wont know till it starts, we won't know till it finishes. Last Winter was being written off by many till the last minute when we had a sting in the tail.

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Matty...are you suggesting that my forecasts are not thought out?

No. I used your forecast as an example of an amateur LRF as opposed to one from a professional agency and posed the question was the professional one more or less likely to be accurate than the amateur one? Personally I think accuracy may well be rather similar over a spread.

Fair enough.  One thing I had learned is not to ram it down everyone's throat all the time like I used to.

It is, I concur, a very inexact science, and truth is, at the moment, there is little or no evidence that any LRF is worth looking it.

But as has been mentioned, giving up on them is certainly not an option.

I am absolutely certain that at some stage in the future, there will be ways to accurately map and forecast world weather patterns, but that could be in the 22nd century or beyond? Who knows? That is what research is all about.

I'm reliably informed that you are better at cricket than weather forecasting........................thank god after reading yoru mild junk

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