http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif

cold in the week before Xmas from CFS

JFF JFF JFF

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I think it is just that the indicators are not giving a signal for anything other than a normal British winter.

Except, I thought the real, proper, big forecasters (as opposed to us amateurs etc) were going for the coldest winter on record with heavy snow every day until May?

At least, that's what it said in the papers.  So it must be true ....
 

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Here's my Winter 13-14 seasonal forecast;
http://www.gavsweathervids.com 
Overall looking at a slightly cooler than average and very dry winter. Think January could provide the most interest in terms of cold and snow in an otherwise pretty dull winter, to be honest.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Thanks Gavin

That is what I am thinking, something like 1933-34, 1963-64 and 1991-92. Below average precipitation and anticyclonicity dominating.

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Here's my Winter 13-14 seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Overall looking at a slightly cooler than average and very dry winter. Think January could provide the most interest in terms of cold and snow in an otherwise pretty dull winter, to be honest.

I notice you have Roger J. Smith giving his analysis.

I'm not a fan to be honest, I'm very sceptical about using astronomical bodies outside the Sun, to use to predict weather on Earth. I know the Moon was used as far back as Victorian times but Mercury retrograding, the Moon near Spica, Jupiter j waves? Not convinced.

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

The CFS output has become very zonal lately, with anomalously high heights in the mid-Pacific being teleconnected to an anomalously strong Azores High, bringing lots of westerly winds with spells of rain and some drier spells too.

...thing is, CFS has had to up the amplification for the month we're now on, so I can see some reason to be hopeful that the January and February charts will show more amplification nearer to the time, which would change things substantially, as when the mid-Pacific ridge builds into the Arctic, it favours blocking on the other side of the pole to our N and/or NW.

How likely do I think this is? Well I'd love to say 80% or something but at the moment I can only say toss of a coin, 50%.

To be honest I've not given up on the strong ridge near to the UK managing to gain some latitude for a time and give us something of some note late this month. The slamming of the door on opportunities in the near future has reduced my confidence in this idea though, from around 40% to barely 20% (very rough guide!).

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013120606/run2/cfsnh-0-756.png?06

JFF JFF not many cold charts to post

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013120606/run2/cfsnh-0-1554.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013120606/run2/cfsnh-0-1638.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013120606/run2/cfsnh-2-1794.png?06

 

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Have read witn interest the recent postings on the lack of sucess of long range forecasting. I agree that to expect a three month winter forecast in any detail at all to be correct is doomed to failure.

However I still think it is possible to forecast a more simple outcome such as "is winter temperature likely to be above or below normal? "

Recent METO efforts had in October a forecast of above  normal winter temperatures, which by the end of November had switched to slightly below normal.Have been away so have not caught up with  the fundamental shift in indicators was that caused this switch.Anyhow Brian Gaze has often cautioned against making any predictions until the end of November.It would be interesting to see how successful the METO 3 month contingency planning forecasts in late November have been on winter temperature types over say the last ten years.Does anyone know? Also would be good to find out what the METO NAO forecast is for 2013/14 and  how successful this forecast has been in the last ten years 

My own view is that winter 2013 /14 has been difficult to nail because of weak and or conflicting indicators.ENSO forecast has remained  unchanged at neutral ie no strong indication.SST's in spring favoured cold winter conditions but by October the Atlantic warmth seemed to favour a warmer outcome.QBO has remained strongly  positive throughout favouring a zonal circulation.Sunspot activity was on the down but recently there was a second peak.(Really the only link to winter temperature seems to be around  sunspot minima).The CFS and METO probability charts have moved around.CFS is now favouring pretty neutral temperature conditions.Meto is now going for dryer than normal with temps close or a little below average partic in SE.The pressure anomalies do not show any sign of northern blocking but indicate higher than average pressure to the south east of the UK.

Autumn as a season finished up in the very warm.wet(but not very wet) category which on pattern matching favours a warmer than average winter.This contradicts the strong cold signal from the very cold,dry Spring.The Spring signal has roughly an 80% probability of being followed by a colder than average winter,the Autumn signal around 70% chance of warmer than average!

My own conclusion is to go with the recent METO update ie for a (slightly) colder than average winter 2013/4.If this happens then 5 out of the last 6 winters will have had below normal temperatures.

 

Good summary, roger, and a very fair conclusion: that if several indicatrors suggest the same winter pattern, then we're justified in offering a very broad "forecast" of overall conditions compared to the average.

But when the signals are mostly weak and/or contradictory, as in 2013, then it's best just to wait and see what happens and perhaps look for some lessons for the future once the season's over.

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Hi Roger, great post as always- thanks.

In relation to your question re verification of MetO 3 month forecasts: I do clearly remember a permanent note within their NAO prediction method (from annual May signal) stating a >60% success rate, self certification. This was of course before the 3 month public write-ups were canned circa 2008(ish).
Hope this helps.

Personally I would say this winter will end up dryer than normal overall but average on temps. Very wet spells in jan but Early feb being the exciting time for coldies.

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4birminghamtemp.gif

JFF JFF CFS bringing some extreme temps towards Boxing day

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif

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http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4birminghamtemp.gif

JFF JFF CFS bringing some extreme temps towards Boxing day

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif

marcus, looking through the various runs of cfs on meteociel, i cant find any runs which would lead to those temps. do you think they are 850's and there is an error on the system ?

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4birminghamtemp.gif

JFF JFF CFS bringing some extreme temps towards Boxing day

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif

marcus, looking through the various runs of cfs on meteociel, i cant find any runs which would lead to those temps. do you think they are 850's and there is an error on the system ?

LOL, you did what I did, I was scratching my head , they look good though. Although the run does say ensemble member 4

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I think what we see on Meteociel is the control run - weather web is showing all the past runs from the ensembles as well as the control. That EPS Marcus showed is from the most recent ten day block m4.

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartscfshowtouse.php 

i get it now - sort of. its a bit like choosing an ens memeber from the gefs and linking to it. marcus - slap on the wrist !!

Recent METO efforts had in October a forecast of above  normal winter temperatures, which by the end of November had switched to slightly below normal.Have been away so have not caught up with  the fundamental shift in indicators was that caused this switch.

That could suggest a cold Feb then (the Oct forecast was Nov-Dec-Jan).

Though of course this is probability and not a forecast per se.  Whatever the media might try and say!

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i get it now - sort of. its a bit like choosing an ens memeber from the gefs and linking to it. marcus - slap on the wrist !!

Just one possible outcome, I see nothing wrong with that

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Autumn as a season finished up in the very warm.wet(but not very wet) category which on pattern matching favours a warmer than average winter.This contradicts the strong cold signal from the very cold,dry Spring.The Spring signal has roughly an 80% probability of being followed by a colder than average winter,the Autumn signal around 70% chance of warmer than average!

Roger, I thought that Autumn 2013 was only "rather" mild, not very mild... approx 0.5C warmer than average?

 I suppose it depends where you draw the line between mild/very mild, but certainly looking at Autumn 1978 which was "very mild", that was about 0.7C warmer than Autumn 2013.

 

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Autumn as a season finished up in the very warm.wet(but not very wet) category which on pattern matching favours a warmer than average winter.This contradicts the strong cold signal from the very cold,dry Spring.The Spring signal has roughly an 80% probability of being followed by a colder than average winter,the Autumn signal around 70% chance of warmer than average!

Roger, I thought that Autumn 2013 was only "rather" mild, not very mild... approx 0.5C warmer than average?

 I suppose it depends where you draw the line between mild/very mild, but certainly looking at Autumn 1978 which was "very mild", that was about 0.7C warmer than Autumn 2013.

 

Thanks Andy.The figures I have used for variance to mean are Sept +0.2 c,October +2.5c,November -0.3 which gives an average of +0.8c. for autumn.My dividing line between Warm and very warm is +0.7C so it is close to the border.Rainfall is also very close to the average .So it was nearly mild/ wet which type is more likely than aveage to be followed by a cold winter.But its the old story you have a classification range and some  years are near the top, some in the middle and some at the bottom.

Autumn as a season finished up in the very warm.wet(but not very wet) category which on pattern matching favours a warmer than average winter.This contradicts the strong cold signal from the very cold,dry Spring.The Spring signal has roughly an 80% probability of being followed by a colder than average winter,the Autumn signal around 70% chance of warmer than average!

Roger, I thought that Autumn 2013 was only "rather" mild, not very mild... approx 0.5C warmer than average?

 I suppose it depends where you draw the line between mild/very mild, but certainly looking at Autumn 1978 which was "very mild", that was about 0.7C warmer than Autumn 2013.

 

Thanks Andy.The figures I have used for variance to mean are Sept +0.2 c,October +2.5c,November -0.3 which gives an average of +0.8c. for autumn.My dividing line between Warm and very warm is +0.7C so it is close to the border.Rainfall is also very close to the average .So it was nearly mild/ wet which type is more likely than aveage to be followed by a cold winter.But its the old story you have a classification range and some  years are near the top, some in the middle and some at the bottom.

Thanks for that Roger.  So, a borderline mild/very mild Autumn - which I suppose would suggest that it's right on a knife-edge between cold and mild for Winter 2014, especially considering your Cold Dry Spring-Cold Winter connection.  Well, it's going to be fascinating to see how the weather patterns evolve through this Winter.

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Well looking at the GFS runs/models etc and Met office updates based on the GFS - Looks like we will all be in for a big disappointment this December. BBC spotlight shows temperatures of 14c in the SW on Friday!? Oh well...we never really get any decent or prolonged cold spell in December. Obviously, December 2010 was an exception but once again it's the high pressure which is in the wrong place (Stretching from just off the Bay of Biscay, through Portugal, Spain and into France and Germany etc) allowing the low pressure systems to take a northerly track)....isn't this called a Bartlett high?! Maybe it could become more unsettled by Xmas but no real cold weather...all quite benign to be frank!

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