Thanks to Ed and Netweather for the forecast - Certainly a very interesting and extensive piece of work!

As my name has been brought up in this thread I'll just say that it really doesn't bother me whether people think my longer range efforts are rubbish, a waste of time, etc...

When you make forecasts (be it short, medium or long range) you have to be prepared to take criticism and to let people form their own opinions on your work (be it good or bad)

In a way, without sounding too precious, we forecasters are like artists (some may even be con-artists, but thats another point  ) our forecasts's are our works of art (our painting, our novel, our piece of music, our movie) we create them, we mould them and then we put them out into the public domain. And when we put them out into the public domain we lose ownership of the them and they become public things.

That means, like any work of art, the public will make their own opinion as to their worth or lack of. We can't dictate what people think or what people take away from our work. We can only put our work out there and then let if live or die on it's own merits.

So, my advice to anybody that get's upset when their work is criticised is simply to forget it (It may even be best to do what a lot of artists do and not even read what critics/the public say) and move on with your next forecast. You can't change what people think of your work and you can't do anything about it, so why worry?

As long as your having fun and enjoying the work your creating, the rest will look after itself.

A top top post Gavin, and you are without a doubt one of the finest in your trade of amateur forecasters....Nobody surely would ever criticise your work, it's brilliant, and your website is awesome.

I visit it every day to see your videos, and they are always clear and concise.

What I like about your forecasts, is there is some technical stuff in there, but you explain it in such a way that even the most moderate layman would understand it.

That, in my view, makes you a top forecaster, and also a top orator.

Yes, artistry perhaps, but I think it goes a lot further than that.

You are very level-headed, never presumptious, and always clear and easy to follow.

Long may that continue. You are one of the best on here.

 

PS: (You can put that fiver in the post for singing your praises so highly!)

WOW! Thanks for all of those kind words Moomin, it really does mean a great deal to know my work is being watched and enjoyed.  

Gav it isn't your work that Moomin is watching .......................it is you

---

I've always said that if I can - or anyone for that matter - can actually forecast the weather for up to four months ahead with a good degree of accuracy such as is the chaotic nature of our mid-latitude climate, then we might as well try and predict the winning Lotto jackpot numbers for the next three weekends while we are at it - and have better luck with that

And here's my lighthearted take on it all as this thread reminded me of a cartoon I did a couple of years ago:

---

I've always said that if I can - or anyone for that matter - can actually forecast the weather for up to four months ahead with a good degree of accurracy, then we might as well try and predict the winning Lotto jackpot numbers for the next three weekends while we are at it - and have better luck with that.

And here's my lighthearted take on it all as this thread reminded me of a cartoon I did a couple of years ago:

There are good LRF's out there and one that comes to mind you use to get in Old Moore's Almanac where every year? it would make the following seasonal forecasts.

Winter: A slight tendency towards temperatures cooler than summer.

Summer: A slight tendency for temperatures higher than winter.

 

---

Thanks to Ed and Netweather for the forecast - Certainly a very interesting and extensive piece of work!

As my name has been brought up in this thread I'll just say that it really doesn't bother me whether people think my longer range efforts are rubbish, a waste of time, etc...

When you make forecasts (be it short, medium or long range) you have to be prepared to take criticism and to let people form their own opinions on your work (be it good or bad)

In a way, without sounding too precious, we forecasters are like artists (some may even be con-artists, but thats another point  ) our forecasts's are our works of art (our painting, our novel, our piece of music, our movie) we create them, we mould them and then we put them out into the public domain. And when we put them out into the public domain we lose ownership of the them and they become public things.

That means, like any work of art, the public will make their own opinion as to their worth or lack of. We can't dictate what people think or what people take away from our work. We can only put our work out there and then let if live or die on it's own merits.

So, my advice to anybody that get's upset when their work is criticised is simply to forget it (It may even be best to do what a lot of artists do and not even read what critics/the public say) and move on with your next forecast. You can't change what people think of your work and you can't do anything about it, so why worry?

As long as your having fun and enjoying the work your creating, the rest will look after itself.

A top top post Gavin, and you are without a doubt one of the finest in your trade of amateur forecasters....Nobody surely would ever criticise your work, it's brilliant, and your website is awesome.

I visit it every day to see your videos, and they are always clear and concise.

What I like about your forecasts, is there is some technical stuff in there, but you explain it in such a way that even the most moderate layman would understand it.

That, in my view, makes you a top forecaster, and also a top orator.

Yes, artistry perhaps, but I think it goes a lot further than that.

You are very level-headed, never presumptious, and always clear and easy to follow.

Long may that continue. You are one of the best on here.

 

PS: (You can put that fiver in the post for singing your praises so highly!)

WOW! Thanks for all of those kind words Moomin, it really does mean a great deal to know my work is being watched and enjoyed.  

Even though I'm critical of LRF yours is one I enjoy viewing Gav and like I said earlier if we stop producing them then how are we supposed advance our learning of metrology. Keep up the good work.

I should have named the thread: "debate on the validity of long range forecats + a rare opportunity to ask gavin P out. "

---

I should have named the thread: "debate on the validity of long range forecats + a rare opportunity to ask gavin P out. "

We'll in my opinion it shouldn't of had it's own thread, it should of gone into the Winter 2013/14 Prospects and Forecasts thread.

---

I should have named the thread: "debate on the validity of long range forecats + a rare opportunity to ask gavin P out. "

We'll in my opinion it shouldn't of had it's own thread, it should of gone into the Winter 2013/14 Prospects and Forecasts thread.

That's where it's heading 😄

---

Thanks to Ed and Netweather for the forecast - Certainly a very interesting and extensive piece of work!

As my name has been brought up in this thread I'll just say that it really doesn't bother me whether people think my longer range efforts are rubbish, a waste of time, etc...

When you make forecasts (be it short, medium or long range) you have to be prepared to take criticism and to let people form their own opinions on your work (be it good or bad)

In a way, without sounding too precious, we forecasters are like artists (some may even be con-artists, but thats another point  ) our forecasts's are our works of art (our painting, our novel, our piece of music, our movie) we create them, we mould them and then we put them out into the public domain. And when we put them out into the public domain we lose ownership of the them and they become public things.

That means, like any work of art, the public will make their own opinion as to their worth or lack of. We can't dictate what people think or what people take away from our work. We can only put our work out there and then let if live or die on it's own merits.

So, my advice to anybody that get's upset when their work is criticised is simply to forget it (It may even be best to do what a lot of artists do and not even read what critics/the public say) and move on with your next forecast. You can't change what people think of your work and you can't do anything about it, so why worry?

As long as your having fun and enjoying the work your creating, the rest will look after itself.

A top top post Gavin, and you are without a doubt one of the finest in your trade of amateur forecasters....Nobody surely would ever criticise your work, it's brilliant, and your website is awesome.

I visit it every day to see your videos, and they are always clear and concise.

What I like about your forecasts, is there is some technical stuff in there, but you explain it in such a way that even the most moderate layman would understand it.

That, in my view, makes you a top forecaster, and also a top orator.

Yes, artistry perhaps, but I think it goes a lot further than that.

You are very level-headed, never presumptious, and always clear and easy to follow.

Long may that continue. You are one of the best on here.

 

PS: (You can put that fiver in the post for singing your praises so highly!)

WOW! Thanks for all of those kind words Moomin, it really does mean a great deal to know my work is being watched and enjoyed.  

Gav it isn't your work that Moomin is watching .......................it is you

Haha...sorry Marcus, I'm spoken for! LOL....And whoever told you I was better at cricket must be blind. I'm the worst cricketer the world has ever seen! (Marginally worse than a weather forecaster)!

---

Is the TWO winter forecast out yet and where can i find it please?

Cheers Gavin I need it to read it a very good advice for us forecasters that do what they enjoy an try to connect the puzzle in our point of view of what could happen in the caotic scenario above our heads a long term.
Thanks for your post.

My life now was a mess in this past couple of years (my Dad past away, my mother had a stroke, lost my job and the crisis, so I'm not posting as I'd like, but I'm trying to do my best of it for beeing a professional forecaster so help me God.

my Winter forecast is for a 2nd half that could be memorable in some parts even Portugal and Spain. If we get something you could see also the consequences of a good blocking...a piece of art.
But December will also deliverd something special for you guys futher north...
January is the 8/80 month witth a good variability of weather types or more a pressure rise swift shift futher N for a good February..

Cheers

---

MY WINTER 2013-2014 FORECAST

This is purely based on my own pattern matching method which compares weather pattern types, temperature and rainfall tendencies.  A very interesting and fascinating set up for this Winter! , especially Jan-Feb.

December 2013 - first half

Seems to be a signal for rather cool and dry conditions through this period.  High Pressure will be never too far away from the UK, with some transient cold NW to Northerly episodes giving some wintry precipitation mainly in the north.

December 2013- second half

Becoming more unsettled and also milder with S to SW winds becoming more dominant.  Wet in the west, rainfall closer to normal further east.

January 2014

Some very interesting signals developing for January.   Firstly, I think there will be quite a strong zonal influence throughout this month, with frequent depressions tracking towards the UK bringing gales and bands of rain and showers to all parts.  But to complicate matters, it looks like cold conditions are slightly more likely to dominate than mild conditions through this period.  This leads me to believe we’ll be seeing some form of “Cold Zonality” through January, resulting in a few significant snow events.  In this situation, I would expect the most significant snowfalls will occur further north, with more transient lighter snowfalls further south. 

February 2014 - first half

Probably the wettest part of the whole Winter, and although it will be less cold,  there’s still the risk of a cold outbreak in this period.

February 2014 - second half

A strong cold signal is suggested for this period. However it looks more likely to be drier too, so it could suggest more Anticyclonic conditions developing.  However, it looks like there’ll be a fairly strong Continental influence too.  So I would say that for many it will be a fairly dry but cold and frosty spell, with some wintry precipitation possible in eastern areas especially.

In Summary:

DECEMBER:  Rather dry, near normal temperatures.

JANUARY:   Likely to be a rather cold, snowy and wet month in the north of the UK, a closer to average month overall in the south due to more influence from warm sector conditions.

FEBRUARY:  Rather cold, near normal rainfall.

WINTER OVERALL:  Slightly dry generally, but wet in the north.  Rather cold Winter, especially in the north.

 

---

Here's my Winter 13-14 seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Overall looking at a slightly cooler than average and very dry winter. Think January could provide the most interest in terms of cold and snow in an otherwise pretty dull winter, to be honest.

---

Here's my Winter 13-14 seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Overall looking at a slightly cooler than average and very dry winter. Think January could provide the most interest in terms of cold and snow in an otherwise pretty dull winter, to be honest.

Shades of 2007 perhaps in these parts which was a largely cloudy cooler than average borefest. Even though I'm not the biggest believer in LRF, all the signals I look out for point to an average winter at best. Spring could prove to be another cold one though  as I expect HLB to start showing it's hand again by then.

 

Edit; Good stuff anyway Gav, highly informative and easy to digets for newocomers and old hands alike.

Here's my Winter 13-14 seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Overall looking at a slightly cooler than average and very dry winter. Think January could provide the most interest in terms of cold and snow in an otherwise pretty dull winter, to be honest.

Cheers Gav

---

Thanks guys!

---

BBC video going for some serious cold towards the end of the week. Good start to december certainly! Having problems pasting the link though.

I really really want it to snow here during December. Somewhat unlikely, January and February usually better for snow of course, but I miss the festive feel we had in 2009 and 2010. In January and February it seems generally peoples' moods are lower.

---

I really really want it to snow here during December. Somewhat unlikely, January and February usually better for snow of course, but I miss the festive feel we had in 2009 and 2010. In January and February it seems generally peoples' moods are lower.

I think also that when we have snow only in Feb many people have the " light at end of tunnel " feel because spring is only around the corner and the nights start drawing out, where as pre-christmas 2009 ans 2010 I for one was thinking WOW this is only the start of Winter, how much more and how bad could this get etc.

---

Something that may be of interest.... 

Based on seven different Winter 2014 forecasts that I'm aware of, both on and off this site:

70% are going for a slightly cold Winter

30% are going for an average to slightly mild Winter

Interesting that no-one seems to be going for a significantly cold or mild Winter. Perhaps because the indicators are so mixed at the moment.

 

 

---

I think it is just that the indicators are not giving a signal for anything other than a normal British winter.

---