We'll in my opinion it shouldn't of had it's own thread, it should of gone into the Winter 2013/14 Prospects and Forecasts thread.

That's where it's heading 😄

Is the TWO winter forecast out yet and where can i find it please?

Thanks for your post.

My life now was a mess in this past couple of years (my Dad past away, my mother had a stroke, lost my job and the crisis, so I'm not posting as I'd like, but I'm trying to do my best of it for beeing a professional forecaster so help me God.

my Winter forecast is for a 2nd half that could be memorable in some parts even Portugal and Spain. If we get something you could see also the consequences of a good blocking...a piece of art.

But December will also deliverd something special for you guys futher north...

January is the 8/80 month witth a good variability of weather types or more a pressure rise swift shift futher N for a good February..

Cheers

MY WINTER 2013-2014 FORECAST

This is purely based on my own pattern matching method which compares weather pattern types, temperature and rainfall tendencies.  A very interesting and fascinating set up for this Winter! , especially Jan-Feb.

December 2013 - first half

Seems to be a signal for rather cool and dry conditions through this period.  High Pressure will be never too far away from the UK, with some transient cold NW to Northerly episodes giving some wintry precipitation mainly in the north.

December 2013- second half

Becoming more unsettled and also milder with S to SW winds becoming more dominant.  Wet in the west, rainfall closer to normal further east.

January 2014

Some very interesting signals developing for January.   Firstly, I think there will be quite a strong zonal influence throughout this month, with frequent depressions tracking towards the UK bringing gales and bands of rain and showers to all parts.  But to complicate matters, it looks like cold conditions are slightly more likely to dominate than mild conditions through this period.  This leads me to believe we’ll be seeing some form of “Cold Zonality” through January, resulting in a few significant snow events.  In this situation, I would expect the most significant snowfalls will occur further north, with more transient lighter snowfalls further south. 

February 2014 - first half

Probably the wettest part of the whole Winter, and although it will be less cold,  there’s still the risk of a cold outbreak in this period.

February 2014 - second half

A strong cold signal is suggested for this period. However it looks more likely to be drier too, so it could suggest more Anticyclonic conditions developing.  However, it looks like there’ll be a fairly strong Continental influence too.  So I would say that for many it will be a fairly dry but cold and frosty spell, with some wintry precipitation possible in eastern areas especially.

In Summary:

DECEMBER:  Rather dry, near normal temperatures.

JANUARY:   Likely to be a rather cold, snowy and wet month in the north of the UK, a closer to average month overall in the south due to more influence from warm sector conditions.

FEBRUARY:  Rather cold, near normal rainfall.

WINTER OVERALL:  Slightly dry generally, but wet in the north.  Rather cold Winter, especially in the north.

Here's my Winter 13-14 seasonal forecast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Overall looking at a slightly cooler than average and very dry winter. Think January could provide the most interest in terms of cold and snow in an otherwise pretty dull winter, to be honest.

Edit; Good stuff anyway Gav, highly informative and easy to digets for newocomers and old hands alike.

Cheers Gav

Thanks guys!

BBC video going for some serious cold towards the end of the week. Good start to december certainly! Having problems pasting the link though.

I really really want it to snow here during December. Somewhat unlikely, January and February usually better for snow of course, but I miss the festive feel we had in 2009 and 2010. In January and February it seems generally peoples' moods are lower.

I think also that when we have snow only in Feb many people have the " light at end of tunnel " feel because spring is only around the corner and the nights start drawing out, where as pre-christmas 2009 ans 2010 I for one was thinking WOW this is only the start of Winter, how much more and how bad could this get etc.

Something that may be of interest.... 

Based on seven different Winter 2014 forecasts that I'm aware of, both on and off this site:

70% are going for a slightly cold Winter

30% are going for an average to slightly mild Winter

Interesting that no-one seems to be going for a significantly cold or mild Winter. Perhaps because the indicators are so mixed at the moment.

I think it is just that the indicators are not giving a signal for anything other than a normal British winter.

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif

cold in the week before Xmas from CFS

JFF JFF JFF

Thanks Gavin

That is what I am thinking, something like 1933-34, 1963-64 and 1991-92. Below average precipitation and anticyclonicity dominating.

I notice you have Roger J. Smith giving his analysis.

I'm not a fan to be honest, I'm very sceptical about using astronomical bodies outside the Sun, to use to predict weather on Earth. I know the Moon was used as far back as Victorian times but Mercury retrograding, the Moon near Spica, Jupiter j waves? Not convinced.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

The CFS output has become very zonal lately, with anomalously high heights in the mid-Pacific being teleconnected to an anomalously strong Azores High, bringing lots of westerly winds with spells of rain and some drier spells too.

...thing is, CFS has had to up the amplification for the month we're now on, so I can see some reason to be hopeful that the January and February charts will show more amplification nearer to the time, which would change things substantially, as when the mid-Pacific ridge builds into the Arctic, it favours blocking on the other side of the pole to our N and/or NW.

How likely do I think this is? Well I'd love to say 80% or something but at the moment I can only say toss of a coin, 50%.

To be honest I've not given up on the strong ridge near to the UK managing to gain some latitude for a time and give us something of some note late this month. The slamming of the door on opportunities in the near future has reduced my confidence in this idea though, from around 40% to barely 20% (very rough guide!).

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013120606/run2/cfsnh-0-756.png?06

JFF JFF not many cold charts to post

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013120606/run2/cfsnh-0-1554.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013120606/run2/cfsnh-0-1638.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013120606/run2/cfsnh-2-1794.png?06

Have read witn interest the recent postings on the lack of sucess of long range forecasting. I agree that to expect a three month winter forecast in any detail at all to be correct is doomed to failure.

However I still think it is possible to forecast a more simple outcome such as "is winter temperature likely to be above or below normal? "

Recent METO efforts had in October a forecast of above  normal winter temperatures, which by the end of November had switched to slightly below normal.Have been away so have not caught up with  the fundamental shift in indicators was that caused this switch.Anyhow Brian Gaze has often cautioned against making any predictions until the end of November.It would be interesting to see how successful the METO 3 month contingency planning forecasts in late November have been on winter temperature types over say the last ten years.Does anyone know? Also would be good to find out what the METO NAO forecast is for 2013/14 and  how successful this forecast has been in the last ten years 

My own view is that winter 2013 /14 has been difficult to nail because of weak and or conflicting indicators.ENSO forecast has remained  unchanged at neutral ie no strong indication.SST's in spring favoured cold winter conditions but by October the Atlantic warmth seemed to favour a warmer outcome.QBO has remained strongly  positive throughout favouring a zonal circulation.Sunspot activity was on the down but recently there was a second peak.(Really the only link to winter temperature seems to be around  sunspot minima).The CFS and METO probability charts have moved around.CFS is now favouring pretty neutral temperature conditions.Meto is now going for dryer than normal with temps close or a little below average partic in SE.The pressure anomalies do not show any sign of northern blocking but indicate higher than average pressure to the south east of the UK.

Autumn as a season finished up in the very warm.wet(but not very wet) category which on pattern matching favours a warmer than average winter.This contradicts the strong cold signal from the very cold,dry Spring.The Spring signal has roughly an 80% probability of being followed by a colder than average winter,the Autumn signal around 70% chance of warmer than average!

My own conclusion is to go with the recent METO update ie for a (slightly) colder than average winter 2013/4.If this happens then 5 out of the last 6 winters will have had below normal temperatures.

Good summary, roger, and a very fair conclusion: that if several indicatrors suggest the same winter pattern, then we're justified in offering a very broad "forecast" of overall conditions compared to the average.

But when the signals are mostly weak and/or contradictory, as in 2013, then it's best just to wait and see what happens and perhaps look for some lessons for the future once the season's over.

In relation to your question re verification of MetO 3 month forecasts: I do clearly remember a permanent note within their NAO prediction method (from annual May signal) stating a >60% success rate, self certification. This was of course before the 3 month public write-ups were canned circa 2008(ish).

Hope this helps.

Personally I would say this winter will end up dryer than normal overall but average on temps. Very wet spells in jan but Early feb being the exciting time for coldies.

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4birminghamtemp.gif

JFF JFF CFS bringing some extreme temps towards Boxing day

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif