Hi guys.
As some of you know, I'm off to sunny Oz in a few days to take in some of the Ashes, and so (with permission Mods), I am in a position to post my annual winter LRF. (LRG as Matty H would say)! 
Above all, I have enjoyed producing this, and hope you all enjoy reading it (although a health warning, it's not brilliant reading for those expecting a Daily Express-style winter armageddon).
Hope this is all OK and any comments (nice or otherwise) would be great.
Cheers all.
Moomin.
WINTER FORECAST 2013-14
OK well I've had a crack at winter forecasting for the last seven winters, with a reasonable degree of success. I appreciate that many don’t rate LRF’s in any way, but that won’t stop me attempting them.
I will not blow my own trumpet (whether right or wrong), and please remember this is compiled purely as a hobby of mine and should not be taken in anything other than it being a “FORECAST”.
I will begin (as always) with a basic summary of how I expect each of the three winter months to pan out, followed by a more dedicated month-by-month forecast.
** Please note that the forecast is based on my own methods, and is predominantly based on pattern matching from previous years and also a study of solar activity, which appears to be increasing dramatically. I've also taken into account the rather warm state of the seas around our islands, particularly in the mid-Atlantic, and also a growing signal of a weak El Nino perhaps occurring in the early part of the northern hemisphere winter.
Feel free to comment on my forecast, but please don't rip me to shreds, because this is just something I do as a hobby, and I have enjoyed compiling this forecast as always***
OK, so starting with a basic summary of how I expect the winter to pan out.
While I believe there is a reasonable chance of some colder periods this winter, I believe the signals for a cold winter are very weak this year.
Consequently, I believe the signals are suggesting something a good deal milder than we have experienced in recent winters, with, perhaps a 60% chance of a milder than average winter overall.
I do not believe that winter overall will be anywhere near as cold as last year, which in itself got cooler as we headed out towards March.
I will add that I believe there will be some cold shots early in the new year, as opposed to December or February, with the winter overall being a disappointing affair for those wanting a significantly colder than average season.
Having said that, I do believe there will be some cold outbreaks, but with much of the coldest weather affecting primarily the north and east of the UK in January.
Conversely, areas in the south and west will experience closer to or even above average temperature-wise at many times.
DECEMBER 2013
I believe December will commence on a mild note with a large area of high pressure over the near continent having a major impact on conditions in the UK.
This will lead to plenty of dry weather, but with fog and possibly very slight frost early and late, particularly the further north you go.
The first week of the month will see the area of high pressure situated to the south and east of the UK, bring in relatively mild south-westerly winds across all areas.
This will bring copious amounts of cloud to the south, keeping the temperatures comparatively high night and day, a typical anti-cyclonic gloom.
As the first week continues, the area of High pressure will remain in situ, continuing to block weather systems attempting to come in from the south and west of the UK.
Further north, weather systems will encroach, bring more in the way of showery rain (possibly wintry on the highest ground), but temperatures remaining mild, ranging from 5 or 6 degrees in the north to perhaps as high as 12 degrees in the south, with overnight frost at a premium due to the cloud cover.
During the second week, I believe the jet stream will strengthen and will track across the British Isles, allowing deep areas of low pressure in the south west to attempt to push north and east, diminishing the blocked pattern, bringing more unsettled conditions.
This has the potential to bring heavy rain and strong winds at times, particularly in southern and western areas.
In the north, more settled conditions may develop with an area of high pressure to the north east having an impact here.
Temperatures in the north will drop to around or just below average, but further south, with the wind and rain, they will stay in the mild or very mild category.
The third week will, I believe, see a continuation of the mild weather as more areas of low pressure attack much of the UK.
Even to the north, there will be more evidence of wind and rain as the block to the north east gets shunted away eastwards.
The extreme north and east of the UK will never really escape the chillier than average conditions, although there may be spells of sleet and wet snow on the highest ground as the fronts make inroads.
Temperatures will be in the range of 5-7 degrees in the far north, to perhaps 10-12 degrees in the south and west, so at least it will be mild here.
In the week running up to Christmas (20-24th) I believe we will see a gradual settling down of the weather as an area of high pressure builds across France and the Low Countries.
This will bring cooler, drier and more settled weather, though with a fair amount of fog and frost.
Some of this fog could linger all day in prone areas (such as the Vale of York), leading to quite depressed temperatures in these areas.
However, there will also be some spells of winter sunshine, making for a crisp and seasonal feeling in the run-up to Christmas.
Temperatures will range between 5 degrees in the north to 8 in the far south, though maybe struggling to rise much above freezing where fog lingers, particularly in the north of the UK.
At present, I think that Christmas will remain relatively settled, although the area of high pressure may begin to retrogress into the north Atlantic.
This will result in winds turning more northerly, particularly across the north.
Instability in this pattern could lead to the outbreak of wintry showers across northern areas, possibly with some snow on the highest ground of Scotland and Northern England.
But generally, I expect Christmas Day to be bright and dry, if rather on the cold side. Temperatures ranging from 3 degrees in the extreme north to perhaps 7-8 in the south.
Night-time temperatures will drop below freezing nationwide, ranging from -4 to -2 degrees.
The final week of December sees the high continue to retrogress out into the Atlantic, leading to a northerly interlude.
Showers will become more widespread, with the continued possibility of sleet or snow in some areas, particularly on northern and eastern facing coasts.
Much of the south will remain dry, with showers few and far between here.
Temperatures will be in the range of 3-8 degrees nationwide.
Overall, I expect December to come out with an above CET, perhaps significantly so in the south, and average rainfall.
JANUARY 2014
I expect the New Year to dawn on a fairly settled note in the south, though with further showers of rain, sleet or snow across northern most areas, particularly over the hills.
However, the area of high pressure in the Atlantic will topple back into the UK, leading to a run of westerly winds and a more unsettled and mild regime briefly.
But it is now that I expect a strong build of higher pressure over Scandinavia, which will start showing its influence in the second week, which will bring, I believe, bring the chance of a UK-wide colder event in the second and third weeks.
So the first week of January will see north or north westerly winds continuing, feeding showers into the northwest. These showers will continue to have a somewhat wintry flavour over higher ground.
As the area of high pressure in the Atlantic topples back over the UK, this will cut off the showers briefly during the second half of the first week and temperatures will recover.
I believe temperatures will range between 4 degrees in the north to 8 in the south, possibly rising to above-average values again of 10-12 during the latter part of the first week.
At this point, I anticipate a large anticyclone over Scandinavia to really begin to exert an influence, as areas of lower pressure skirt along the south of the country with a southerly-tracking jet.
Initially these areas of low pressure will deliver more wind and rain, particularly from the midlands southwards.
Winds will be south westerly to westerly at first with temperatures around or just above average.
Further north under more of a high pressure influence, conditions will settle down and become quite cold as the Scandinavian High takes control.
Temperatures during the second week will range from around 1-3 degrees in the north to above-average 9-12 in the south.
I believe the Scandinavian block will start to really exert its influence in the third week as areas of low pressure begin to undercut the blocking high.
Winds will therefore come from a more easterly quarter and temperatures will head below average to perhaps well below average in some areas.
As areas of low pressure bump into the colder air, precipitation will turn more wintry in nature, particularly over higher ground, even in the south, such as the South Downs and the Moors.
Cold easterly winds will see maximum temperatures range from around freezing point in the north, to perhaps 4-5 degrees in the south, the feel accentuated by a biting wind.
With the active jet being diverted south of the UK, there is the chance of formation of channel low pressures, which will has the potential of delivery quite a snow event from the midlands southwards.
During the fourth week of January, I expect the Scandi High to continue to block the Atlantic to a certain extent, although I feel it will sink slightly towards the Balkans area, leading to a change of wind direction into the south east, become more of a mid-latitude block.
This will, in turn, lead to drier conditions across the south, though still rather on the cold side.
With the air being drier though, significant spells of sunshine will make it feel quite pleasant out of the wind at times.
Across the north, there will be showers of sleet or snow at times, interspersed by spells of sunshine, but staying cold.
Maximum temperatures during the last week of January will range from around 2 degrees in the north to around 6 or 7 in the south.
Overall, I expect January to come out with an average CET and average rainfall.
FEBRUARY 2014
I believe the last month of winter 2013-14 will start as January finished, with showers of rain/sleet or snow across the north and drier/brighter weather from the midlands southwards.
A deep area of low pressure will zip across northern-most areas during the end of the first week, leading to a brief, but potent northerly spell in its wake.
This northerly spell will not last too long as heights rise again to the south, bringing a spell of more zonal and mild weather towards the middle and end of the month and possibly an early end to winter here.
So the first week of February will begin quite unsettled across Scotland and northern England. Showers of rain or sleet (snow on the hills) will make it feel quite miserable here, although in the south with sunnier skies, it will be rather pleasant in lighter winds from the south or south east as a mid-latitude high continues to block weather systems coming in from the west.
But it will be all change as a potent Atlantic storm does its best to smash the block.
A deep area of low pressure will zip across northern most areas.
Bumping into our cold air, this will bring heavy spells of snow in Scotland and high ground in northern England. Coupled with gale-force winds, there will be blizzard-like conditions at times, especially on exposed northern and eastern facing coasts and hills, but this precipitation will likely fall as rain from the Midlands southwards.
It will also be very windy in the rest of England and Wales, with gale force north to north-westerlies and spells of rain or snow from frontal systems.
Temperatures will range from between 2 or 3 degrees in the north to 7-10 degrees in the extreme south during this period.
With a strong jet more directly affecting the UK, this area of low pressure will move fairly swiftly, and in its wake, we will see this brief northerly outbreak.
Strong northerly winds will penetrate nationwide, and it will feel very cold at times.
Showers of sleet or snow, initially affecting northern areas, will also begin to penetrate further south on increasing northerly winds.
Most of these showers will affect northern and eastern coastal areas, although it is likely that some will reach as far south as the Midlands, blown along on strong northerlies.
As is always possible in an unstable airstream, this may lead to the formation of small polar low pressure areas, which could serve to pep up the wintry precipitation, leading to perhaps a further spell of snow in places.
Temperatures will range from around freezing in the north to 5 or 6 degrees in the south, but feeling much colder than this with the addition of the strong.
Overnight we will see sharp and at times penetrating frosts with temperatures ranging from -5 to -2 degrees.
Sharp height rises to the south will begin to cut off the northerly outbreak during the third week of February as winds turn more westerly again.
This will, I believe, lead to a much milder and settled third week, with some areas in the south beginning to feel particularly mild for the time of year.
In the north, however, you will still be influenced by north-westerly’s, so colder and more unsettled here.
Areas from the north of England southwards will become quite settled, though rather cloudy, but temperatures will rise markedly, perhaps getting back into the very mild category at times.
I believe these will range from around 4 or 5 degrees in the extreme north, to perhaps as high as 13 or 14 in the south west if the sun pokes through the clouds.
The final week of February will see a continuation of milder weather across the south; though will spells of rain likely at times.
The height rises to the south will continue, with an area of high pressure from the Azores bringing much milder weather in across the whole country.
There will be frontal systems crossing the country at times, bringing showers or longer spells of rain, but also some drier and brighter interludes.
I believe we will see an early start to spring-like conditions in the south of the UK as winds from the south west push temperatures into the mild to warm category towards the end of the month.
In any sunnier spells, temperatures in the south could reach 12 to 14 degrees quite easily, possibly higher in places.
Even in the north, the weather turns much milder, heralding a taste of spring across northern England and southern Scotland.
Showers or longer spells of rain here at times also, but daytime temperatures ranging from 6-10 degrees.
Overall I expect February to come out with a slightly above average CET and average rainfall.
That's all folks. I hope you enjoyed reading this. I've taken many, many weeks compiling this forecast. It may be right, it may be wrong (or it may be something in between).
My overall summary is a winter that will prove frustrating for cold lovers in many areas away from the north and the hillier areas, but they will perhaps get some reward in January.
There will be one or two fairly potent cold spells, but generally, a cold or very cold winter is unlikely this season in my view.
Overall, CET for the three months will be around or perhaps slightly average across most areas, with rainfall being around average.
I expect to see a warmer March than last year (very obviously), and perhaps an early start to spring, with March being warmer and drier than average overall.
Hope you enjoyed reading this as much as I enjoyed compiling it.
Cheers guys.
Moomin.
Edited by user
21 November 2013 19:17:56
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Reason: Not specified
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL