From the tools available and reading about weather drivers, the milder, zonal outlook in the models is understandable - it is what known physics suggests. It might give a rough idea for the large continental land masses - for the UK, pretty hopeless as the skill level masks on some of the output shows.
Add in the the possible circulatory effects of Arctic ice loss and low solar cycle; all bets are off with regard to what is in store this winter.
In the words of Gooner and JFF - I think winter '95/'96 might be something to look at as an analogue.