http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4birminghamtemp.gif

JFF JFF CFS bringing some extreme temps towards Boxing day

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek3.gif

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

marcus, looking through the various runs of cfs on meteociel, i cant find any runs which would lead to those temps. do you think they are 850's and there is an error on the system ?

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Recent METO efforts had in October a forecast of above  normal winter temperatures, which by the end of November had switched to slightly below normal.Have been away so have not caught up with  the fundamental shift in indicators was that caused this switch.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

i get it now - sort of. its a bit like choosing an ens memeber from the gefs and linking to it. marcus - slap on the wrist !!

Originally Posted by: nickl 

Autumn as a season finished up in the very warm.wet(but not very wet) category which on pattern matching favours a warmer than average winter.This contradicts the strong cold signal from the very cold,dry Spring.The Spring signal has roughly an 80% probability of being followed by a colder than average winter,the Autumn signal around 70% chance of warmer than average!

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Roger, I thought that Autumn 2013 was only "rather" mild, not very mild... approx 0.5C warmer than average?

 I suppose it depends where you draw the line between mild/very mild, but certainly looking at Autumn 1978 which was "very mild", that was about 0.7C warmer than Autumn 2013.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Thanks Andy.The figures I have used for variance to mean are Sept +0.2 c,October +2.5c,November -0.3 which gives an average of +0.8c. for autumn.My dividing line between Warm and very warm is +0.7C so it is close to the border.Rainfall is also very close to the average .So it was nearly mild/ wet which type is more likely than aveage to be followed by a cold winter.But its the old story you have a classification range and some  years are near the top, some in the middle and some at the bottom.

Originally Posted by: roger63 

Hi Roger, great post as always- thanks.

In relation to your question re verification of MetO 3 month forecasts: I do clearly remember a permanent note within their NAO prediction method (from annual May signal) stating a >60% success rate, self certification. This was of course before the 3 month public write-ups were canned circa 2008(ish).
Hope this helps.

Personally I would say this winter will end up dryer than normal overall but average on temps. Very wet spells in jan but Early feb being the exciting time for coldies.

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

Last time the CET area recorded a really cold February was 1991. Since December, January and March have all returned months over 2C below the average recently, I can't see why February can't. It feels like only a matter of time, but when?

Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 

I had previously questioned the effect of a quiet hurricane season on the following winter, and after seeing Gavs video today it got my interest going again.  I have taken the quietest hurricane seasons for each of the last decades and put below (from wikipedia).  A couple had quiet seasons back to back or near each other so have added them in too.  If some one was able to fill in the winter summary it be appreciated.  I also have the CETs for the following Jan and Feb, but cant seem to edit the table without it crashing so will post after to avoid having to start again.

 From what i can find the Average CET for Oct is 10.6, Nov 9, Jan+Feb 3.8 (Im unsure on this so if someone can confirm one way or another.  Based on the above, it is more likely than not, that this Jan Feb will be above average in terms of CET, but there is the outside chance that a small shift in pattern could lead to below average CETs such as 1947 and 1963.  However, you will see that 2010 was also below average.  This makes me lean further to the above average CETs for Jan and Feb.

Other "colder" winters were 1987, 1985, 1979, and 1942.  Their preceding hurricane seasons were as follows 4/0, 5/1, 5/2, 4/3  which were in the "quieter" end of their respective decades activity.

Hope its useful, it helped me pass an hour before the pub 

* Conclusion - This winter depends greatly on the position of HP (most do i suppose) 

Edit - CET data courtesy of Metoffice

Originally Posted by: glenogle 

With the benefit of the hindsight of being halfway through a December that's started mild and with models forecasting zonal pattern for the next two weeks, the odds are clearly stacked on this being a mild winter.  Decembers are a good (though not infallible) predictor of the winter to follow.   Take the 3 mildest Decembers of the past 100 years, 1934, 1974 and 1988 - all followed up with above average Januarys and Februarys (though not as mild as the preceding December), and the picture through the CET record is pretty similar.....

So, is it time for snow-lovers to despair of anything this year?  

Firstly, the past few winters has utterly dispensed with the commonly-held belief pre-2008 that "global warming" had irreversably altered weather patterns meaning that 'snowfall was becoming an increasing rare and unexpected event' over the UK.  As such, any mild winter isn't so much seen a confirmation of this view, but rather any inevitable part of living in the UK, where mild winters occurred even right in the depth on the Little Ice Age (e.g . 1795/6 with its 7.3 January - the very year after the record-breaking of January 1795 with its CET of -3.1!).  So even if this year does turn out mild and snowless, it won't depress me like, say, 2007, did.

Secondly, even in "mild" winters, cold, snowy periods can and do occur.  Take 2011/12 for example.... Definitely mild overall, with a snowless, mild December, but we had a reasonable, if unspectacular, week-long cold spell with spell in February that allowed both a decent sledging event (the main criteria for me as I have young kids), a week of snow-cover, culminating in a snow-on-snow event and a minima (-19 in nearby Chesham) that beat anything here in the post-2007 winter era!

Thirdly, a mild December doesn't necessarily mean a proper cold period won't occur.  For instance, December 1852 was exceptionally mild, coming in at 7.7 (1988 was 7.5)...... the following January was above average at 5.1, but February was properly wintry at 0.6.   Also, December 1837 was a mild (albeit unexceptionally so) 5.3, followed by a bitter -1.5 January - a 6.8 degree drop which I believe is a record within winter!

So, will Winter 2013/14 end up being a classic - highly unlikely though its not impossible.  Will winter be a write-off?  I think that's quite likely frankly - and we shouldn't be surprised if it is - but does that mean we should give up hope?  Certainly not.

Andrew

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Firstly, the past few winters has utterly dispensed with he commonly-held belief pre-2008 that "global warming" had irreversably altered weather patterns meaning that 'snowfall was becoming an increasing rare and unexpected event' over the UK.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

That was absolute twaddle that was peddled by Ian Brown who is a complete charlatan, IMO

Weather patterns had not altered and I have the proof from a text book from 1957 showing the normal winter pressure pattern of the North Atlantic and the Icelandic low is there! I have a weather map showing mean pressure patterns around the world from 1913 and guess what the Icelandic low is there too!

So how can weather patterns have been changed, when they are showing the same pattern as were 100 years ago? The only argument that could be bantered is that pattern has been strengthened. Weather patterns do not become extinct, they are not dodos. And it's impossible to prove because it is only to happened once within 10, 100 or even 1000 years etc and that is proof enough that it's not extinct.

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard 

Originally Posted by: Chiltern Blizzard