I like our U.K. Winters for the simple fact that we never really know what we are gonna get till we get it. When we do get something out of the ordinary we appreciate it and perhaps also be a touch greedy the following year, that's what makes places like this so great throughout all seasons.

It would be fairly boring if we knew what the outcome was going to be for Winter.

I love the fact that we may have an idea what the weather may be like at the end of this Month for example but we can never be certain, our weather can change at the drop of a hat, we have seen this before and we will see it again.

...Anyone that rules out Winter or a whole Month before it's even started is a very brave forecaster, or an even money gambler

You're biased on account of the fact that yo uget more than your fair share of snow when there's any about LOL
(IMBYS - In My Back Yard Shed: In the same vein as IMBY but more specific )

May be, I do like to be ruled out of stuff only to hear whispers from Gusty about Kent's microclimate throwing up something that most forecasters fail to spot

To be fair I do miss out on most the storms during Summer, that doesn't mean I don't enjoy our U.K Summers  

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You see this is the problem with November. Everyone gets all het up about Halloween and Bonfire night, then there nothing to occupy us until December... Its a boredom problem. LRF as basically unsound beyond at best 2-3 weeks. We know this. We can get indications of pattern changes that firm up the closer we get to the event, but February weather predicted in November? Really? How many saw Dec 2010 coming in August?

 

Statistically with a west based QBO and Solar Max, the chances of a strat warming event in late Jan/Feb are quite high. That doesn't mean it will happen - but it's perfectly valid to discuss it as a possible scenario. What's the point of this thread if you can't discuss things like that?!

So what are the chances (i.e. the actual stats)? I'm a scientist and I like to deal in numbers, too any comments in the thread are just guesses, wishes, hopecasting etc. Its a valid question to ask what is the point of the thread if you can't discuss genuine parameters, I just feel that most posts aren't doing that. Not for me to stop others fun though! 

That's a fair point. I came across the following the other day relating to the stratospheric warmings and the QBO phases: 

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/

"Looking back at years since 1953, with a +QBO state and a monthly mean JAN SSN over 95 we notice that 6 out of 12 cases have a major SSW event in feb. Another 4 years have an SSW in JAN with only 2 in december. Whats important to note is that all the years with major december warmings had +PDO states and half the jan warming's had +PDO states as well. Also important is that no +QBO/smax years have ever not seen a major SSW event, which is pretty striking.

Looking back at all years since '53 with a +QBO and low to moderate solar(JAN SSN below 95)

We learn that 14 out of 25 cases have no major SSW events all winter.... with just 3 out of 25 years having a SSW in DEC or Jan. These 3 years all had +PDO's. Another 6 out of 25 years in the data set had SSW in March or April, with no real PDO trends. There were also 2 years that had major Feb warmings."

 

Below is another good paper to read - which has some data relating to the Arctic Oscillation and how it typically varies in relation to the QBO phase and solar activity. We really need the sun to be as active as possible given the QBO phase we're in this winter (for a better chance of cold that is). We are seeing a spike upwards in solar acitvity again right now suggesting another peak in the current solar max (see solarham.net) 

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/looknorthyorkslincs/ahlbeck_solar_activity.pdf

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You see this is the problem with November. Everyone gets all het up about Halloween and Bonfire night, then there nothing to occupy us until December... Its a boredom problem. LRF as basically unsound beyond at best 2-3 weeks. We know this. We can get indications of pattern changes that firm up the closer we get to the event, but February weather predicted in November? Really? How many saw Dec 2010 coming in August?

 

Statistically with a west based QBO and Solar Max, the chances of a strat warming event in late Jan/Feb are quite high. That doesn't mean it will happen - but it's perfectly valid to discuss it as a possible scenario. What's the point of this thread if you can't discuss things like that?!

So what are the chances (i.e. the actual stats)? I'm a scientist and I like to deal in numbers, too any comments in the thread are just guesses, wishes, hopecasting etc. Its a valid question to ask what is the point of the thread if you can't discuss genuine parameters, I just feel that most posts aren't doing that. Not for me to stop others fun though! 

IRI carries forecasts with probabilities.

Temperature

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ 

Odds on milder than usual for much of Europe. 50% chance of mild conditions, 85% mild to average over Greenland/Iceland - which seems to imply some northern blocking on offer?

Precipitation

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/ 

Average

Quick question about these probabilities - do you know where they come from? For instance are they a pure result of modelling, or are they influenced by human input?

The process is explained here, if you've got the time and interest.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/tutorial2/index.html#process 

I found it quite interesting, although I only skimmed over some of it.

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You see this is the problem with November. Everyone gets all het up about Halloween and Bonfire night, then there nothing to occupy us until December... Its a boredom problem. LRF as basically unsound beyond at best 2-3 weeks. We know this. We can get indications of pattern changes that firm up the closer we get to the event, but February weather predicted in November? Really? How many saw Dec 2010 coming in August?

 

Statistically with a west based QBO and Solar Max, the chances of a strat warming event in late Jan/Feb are quite high. That doesn't mean it will happen - but it's perfectly valid to discuss it as a possible scenario. What's the point of this thread if you can't discuss things like that?!

So what are the chances (i.e. the actual stats)? I'm a scientist and I like to deal in numbers, too any comments in the thread are just guesses, wishes, hopecasting etc. Its a valid question to ask what is the point of the thread if you can't discuss genuine parameters, I just feel that most posts aren't doing that. Not for me to stop others fun though! 

That's a fair point. I came across the following the other day relating to the stratospheric warmings and the QBO phases: 

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.co.uk/

"Looking back at years since 1953, with a +QBO state and a monthly mean JAN SSN over 95 we notice that 6 out of 12 cases have a major SSW event in feb. Another 4 years have an SSW in JAN with only 2 in december. Whats important to note is that all the years with major december warmings had +PDO states and half the jan warming's had +PDO states as well. Also important is that no +QBO/smax years have ever not seen a major SSW event, which is pretty striking.

Looking back at all years since '53 with a +QBO and low to moderate solar(JAN SSN below 95)

We learn that 14 out of 25 cases have no major SSW events all winter.... with just 3 out of 25 years having a SSW in DEC or Jan. These 3 years all had +PDO's. Another 6 out of 25 years in the data set had SSW in March or April, with no real PDO trends. There were also 2 years that had major Feb warmings."

 

Below is another good paper to read - which has some data relating to the Arctic Oscillation and how it typically varies in relation to the QBO phase and solar activity. We really need the sun to be as active as possible given the QBO phase we're in this winter (for a better chance of cold that is). We are seeing a spike upwards in solar acitvity again right now suggesting another peak in the current solar max (see solarham.net) 

http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/looknorthyorkslincs/ahlbeck_solar_activity.pdf

That sounds interesting.  I'll try to find the time to read through it.

One thing puzzles me and that is that there is evidence that a quiet sun promotes northern blocking and yet you are describing here a solar max being a good indicator of a SSW, which in turn promotes northern blocking.

I wonder how these two fit together - or am I missing something?

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http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html  -I have some issues with the statements given on the Canadian blog.

The one year I noted was 1985/1986 - wQBO very weak solar ie. SSN averaged for January of 3. The monthly classification of C denotes a cold strat, yet the UK had a very cold February.

http://imgur.com/n37jLa2 

Cheers to Beng and Gandalf - this is the kind of stuff we should look to - evidence. It is interesting as I have heard it said that a sluggish sun in recent times has been a possible reason for colder UK winters with the jet displaced south. Does that happen more with a -QBO? What is for certain is that its incredibly complex. Someone else said on the model thread - it's reassuringly November weather at the moment, milder in the south with cyclones passing oevr with some regularity and colder to the north with occasional snow to higher ground. All good stuff.

.

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That sounds interesting.  I'll try to find the time to read through it.

One thing puzzles me and that is that there is evidence that a quiet sun promotes northern blocking and yet you are describing here a solar max being a good indicator of a SSW, which in turn promotes northern blocking.

I wonder how these two fit together - or am I missing something?

My thinking is that according to the research, it's down to the QBO phase as much as anything. In the East phase - low solar strongly promotes a negative AO.  In the West phase QBO, high solar promotes a weak negative AO (possibly down to the SSW events that sometimes occur - i.e. the stats only show it promoting a weak negative AO as the SSW can't be guaranteed).

 

 

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That sounds interesting.  I'll try to find the time to read through it.

One thing puzzles me and that is that there is evidence that a quiet sun promotes northern blocking and yet you are describing here a solar max being a good indicator of a SSW, which in turn promotes northern blocking.

I wonder how these two fit together - or am I missing something?

My thinking is that according to the research, it's down to the QBO phase as much as anything. In the East phase - low solar strongly promotes a negative AO.  In the West phase QBO, high solar promotes a weak negative AO (possibly down to the SSW events that sometimes occur - i.e. the stats only show it promoting a weak negative AO as the SSW can't be guaranteed).

 

 

But in between those years you can still get cold and mild winters regardless of the state of the QBO.

But in between those years you can still get cold and mild winters regardless of the state of the QBO.

Yep agreed.

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There have been a variety of posts saying that it is impoosible to forecast what winters will be like.

The truth of this statement depends on what level of detail is being sought.I'm happy enough to have some idea of whether winter is likely  to be  either  cold or warm.

Went last year to a symposium run by Met Soc on winter forecasting.Met Office (Adam Scaiffe I think) went through their latest models and reckoned that they could forecast winter temperature anomaly sign to just below 70% accuracy.That's good enough for me!

As far as this coming winter is concerned one of the inputs I look at is pattern matching,seeking the types of season which produce frequency of warm/cold winters that are outsid the normal 50:50 split.

So far this year our very cold,dry spring type has a 75% chance of being followed by a cold winter.The very warm,very dry summer  does not produce a strong signal either way.

Just looked at October rainfall for Central England which in October was 104.4 mm 41.3mm above average.However as September had  a rainfall that was 14.6 below average this gives a total anomaly so far for autumn of 26.7mm which puts it in the wet ,but not very wet category.on th edtepertaure side the mean anomaly for sSept an dOctober is around 1.3c which puts it in the very warm category.

So the autumn  season todate is very warm wet.Such aurtumns have been followed by warmer than average winter in 100% of cases.Ofcourse if November tuns out to be extremely wet and cold then the categorisation for autunm could still change.

but currently we have cold signal (75%) from spring and a warm signal (100% ) from Autumn to date.in this situation one would choose the strongest signal which is the warm winter.But I stress this is only one of the inputs......

 

Toss a coin then Roger ?

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There have been a variety of posts saying that it is impoosible to forecast what winters will be like.

The truth of this statement depends on what level of detail is being sought.I'm happy enough to have some idea of whether winter is likely  to be  either  cold or warm.

Went last year to a symposium run by Met Soc on winter forecasting.Met Office (Adam Scaiffe I think) went through their latest models and reckoned that they could forecast winter temperature anomaly sign to just below 70% accuracy.That's good enough for me!

As far as this coming winter is concerned one of the inputs I look at is pattern matching,seeking the types of season which produce frequency of warm/cold winters that are outsid the normal 50:50 split.

So far this year our very cold,dry spring type has a 75% chance of being followed by a cold winter.The very warm,very dry summer  does not produce a strong signal either way.

Just looked at October rainfall for Central England which in October was 104.4 mm 41.3mm above average.However as September had  a rainfall that was 14.6 below average this gives a total anomaly so far for autumn of 26.7mm which puts it in the wet ,but not very wet category.on th edtepertaure side the mean anomaly for sSept an dOctober is around 1.3c which puts it in the very warm category.

So the autumn  season todate is very warm wet.Such aurtumns have been followed by warmer than average winter in 100% of cases.Ofcourse if November tuns out to be extremely wet and cold then the categorisation for autunm could still change.

but currently we have cold signal (75%) from spring and a warm signal (100% ) from Autumn to date.in this situation one would choose the strongest signal which is the warm winter.But I stress this is only one of the inputs......

 

So an average winter it is then. 

There have been a variety of posts saying that it is impoosible to forecast what winters will be like.

The truth of this statement depends on what level of detail is being sought.I'm happy enough to have some idea of whether winter is likely  to be  either  cold or warm.

Went last year to a symposium run by Met Soc on winter forecasting.Met Office (Adam Scaiffe I think) went through their latest models and reckoned that they could forecast winter temperature anomaly sign to just below 70% accuracy.That's good enough for me!

As far as this coming winter is concerned one of the inputs I look at is pattern matching,seeking the types of season which produce frequency of warm/cold winters that are outsid the normal 50:50 split.

So far this year our very cold,dry spring type has a 75% chance of being followed by a cold winter.The very warm,very dry summer  does not produce a strong signal either way.

Just looked at October rainfall for Central England which in October was 104.4 mm 41.3mm above average.However as September had  a rainfall that was 14.6 below average this gives a total anomaly so far for autumn of 26.7mm which puts it in the wet ,but not very wet category.on th edtepertaure side the mean anomaly for sSept an dOctober is around 1.3c which puts it in the very warm category.

So the autumn  season todate is very warm wet.Such aurtumns have been followed by warmer than average winter in 100% of cases.Ofcourse if November tuns out to be extremely wet and cold then the categorisation for autunm could still change.

but currently we have cold signal (75%) from spring and a warm signal (100% ) from Autumn to date.in this situation one would choose the strongest signal which is the warm winter.But I stress this is only one of the inputs......

 

So an average winter it is then. 

I dont know if it would be average.  If you take what Roger has said above and mix it with the hurricane info, it is possible that it will be more likely to lean to warm OR cold, other than something in between?

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I dont know if it would be average.  If you take what Roger has said above and mix it with the hurricane info, it is possible that it will be more likely to lean to warm OR cold, other than something in between?

An honest question, but what deviation from the mean who constitute a warm or cold tag?

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I dont know if it would be average.  If you take what Roger has said above and mix it with the hurricane info, it is possible that it will be more likely to lean to warm OR cold, other than something in between?

An honest question, but what deviation from the mean who constitute a warm or cold tag?

Neil answer to your question.In the classification I am using  for sprimg summer amd autumn seasons anything above mean is warm,above 0.7C variation is very warm  below mean is cold,greater than - 0.7c variation is very cold.For winter season split between warm and very warm is + 1.1C ,for cold /very cold split -1.1c.

There have been a variety of posts saying that it is impoosible to forecast what winters will be like.

The truth of this statement depends on what level of detail is being sought.I'm happy enough to have some idea of whether winter is likely  to be  either  cold or warm.

Went last year to a symposium run by Met Soc on winter forecasting.Met Office (Adam Scaiffe I think) went through their latest models and reckoned that they could forecast winter temperature anomaly sign to just below 70% accuracy.That's good enough for me!

As far as this coming winter is concerned one of the inputs I look at is pattern matching,seeking the types of season which produce frequency of warm/cold winters that are outsid the normal 50:50 split.

So far this year our very cold,dry spring type has a 75% chance of being followed by a cold winter.The very warm,very dry summer  does not produce a strong signal either way.

Just looked at October rainfall for Central England which in October was 104.4 mm 41.3mm above average.However as September had  a rainfall that was 14.6 below average this gives a total anomaly so far for autumn of 26.7mm which puts it in the wet ,but not very wet category.on th edtepertaure side the mean anomaly for sSept an dOctober is around 1.3c which puts it in the very warm category.

So the autumn  season todate is very warm wet.Such aurtumns have been followed by warmer than average winter in 100% of cases.Ofcourse if November tuns out to be extremely wet and cold then the categorisation for autunm could still change.

but currently we have cold signal (75%) from spring and a warm signal (100% ) from Autumn to date.in this situation one would choose the strongest signal which is the warm winter.But I stress this is only one of the inputs......

 

So an average winter it is then. 

I dont know if it would be average.  If you take what Roger has said above and mix it with the hurricane info, it is possible that it will be more likely to lean to warm OR cold, other than something in between?

I was being mischievous glenogle and highlighting how difficult this winter is to call with so many long range models going for different scenairos, even Matty's flip of a coin stratergy is as good a call as any. IMO which means diddly squat, I think we'll have a mixed December with any prolonged cold spell coming from mid January onwards.

CFS throws up the cold January ......................again

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110606/cfs-8-1-2014.png?06

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Is the first wintry spell of the season coming into view ? (whoops - should be in the autumn thread!)

 

Hi all,

Here's my latest seasonal update looking at NASA's experimental model;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Seems to be going for quite a cold late winter period, though the Dec-Feb anomaly comes out slightly colder than average as well.

I didn't know NASA had a seasonal forecasting model TBH.

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