The MetO very confident prediction of a warm November issued on its website just 8 days ago is going horribly wrong with temps during the first 8 days below average especially in the north where its been particularly chilly with night frosts and hill snow.
Now the MetO have dropped the warm November forecast all together with an updated MRF indicating a cool month, all this with such high Atlantic SST's
Confidence significantly decreases regarding which weather type is most likely to dominate through this forecast period. There are currently no strong signals indicating significantly above or below average temperatures or rainfall. However, the projections suggest that precipitation amounts are more likely to be just above the seasonal average than below. This would suggest that the weather remains changeable with spells of showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the north and west, interspersed with drier and clearer periods, giving a greater threat of overnight frost and fog. Temperatures are also more likely to be just below average than above, and this would give a greater threat of wintry precipitation, particularly over hills.
Updated: 1201 on Fri 8 Nov 2013
Model output continues to show cool zonality which again is surprising given the high SST's, where is the cold air coming from?
Its back to the drawing board with any winter forecast IMO.
Andy
Originally Posted by: TomC