The Weather Outlook

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Gusty
09 November 2013 22:02:19

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek8.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek9.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek10.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek11.gif

http://www.weatherweb.net/cfs/cfses4avmaxukweek12.gif

JFF JFF JFF JFF JFF

A cold January from CFS

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Hi Marcus. 

I personally dont buy into all the long range crappy forecasting and feel that they are a complete waste of time and energy..however, and this is a genuine question.

Are these cold charts being consistently progged or are there occasional mild ones being progged that you don't post here on the forum ? 

If they are continually being progged cold then perhaps there may (just may) be some signal emerging in the far far reaches.

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

50/50 Steve

The one benefit from posting them on a regular basis would be to see if a trend had been spotted.

Lets be fair they are no more less accurate than the 384 charts

 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Nice one..Cheers Marcus 

Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Saint Snow
09 November 2013 22:43:09


One thing we can accurately predict - if we are all buried under 18" of snow by mid January, everyone will be happy Big smile

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

 

Nah. You just know some people will be forever gloomily posting that GFS t+240 shows a breakdown of the cold as the Atlantic 'cranks into action'. Whilst others (eg,  me!) will be whinging that they don't have as much snow as some other members, etc, etc

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Snowfan
09 November 2013 22:44:04

I wouldn't be surprised if we see more mild-weather fans on this and other weather sites this year, purely because they may have been drawn by the summer heatwave, hoping to see if it would last any longer, and maybe some of the newer people are those who are wanting a mild winter...? 

"Let It Snow, Let It Snow, Let It Snow! "

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Saint Snow
09 November 2013 22:45:07

I wouldn't be surprised if we see more mild-weather fans on this and other weather sites this year, purely because they may have been drawn by the summer heatwave, hoping to see if it would last any longer, and maybe some of the newer people are those who are wanting a mild winter...? 

Originally Posted by: Snowfan 

 

We have pitchforks and flaming torches for such heretics.

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Darren S
09 November 2013 22:48:54

I wouldn't be surprised if we see more mild-weather fans on this and other weather sites this year

Originally Posted by: Snowfan 

I would be very surprised, because genuine winter mild weather fans are very few and far between. I'm not counting those who are obviously trolling for a reaction, but I think Matty banned all those types.

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Brendon Hills Bandit
09 November 2013 23:18:29

I wouldn't be surprised if we see more mild-weather fans on this and other weather sites this year

Originally Posted by: Darren S 

I would be very surprised, because genuine winter mild weather fans are very few and far between. I'm not counting those who are obviously trolling for a reaction, but I think Matty banned all those types.

Originally Posted by: Snowfan 

Hi Darren, just interested generally, do you really think that is true, that mild winter fans are very rare? I suppose pretty much everyone that I've talked to about cold winter weather snow etc., seems to like it.

I wonder why then a lot of people like cold winters? Probably a multitude of reasons, romantic notions, fluffy blanket, a break from wet and windy, etc. 

 

 

 

 

 

220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
Matty H
09 November 2013 23:31:00
I'm definitively a mild weather fan. I absolutely despise cold weather with a passion. Trouble is, I love snow, and the two go hand in hand. 99.9% of winter is a miserable, stinking affair, but there's always a glimmer of hope that amongst the endless days of 7c and drizzle there will be the odd fall of snow.
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Brendon Hills Bandit
10 November 2013 00:01:03

I'm definitively a mild weather fan. I absolutely despise cold weather with a passion. Trouble is, I love snow, and the two go hand in hand. 99.9% of winter is a miserable, stinking affair, but there's always a glimmer of hope that amongst the endless days of 7c and drizzle there will be the odd fall of snow.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Hi Matty H,

The main thing I dislike about winter is the lack of sun, it's bad for the soul. But I find that the excitement of ice & snow can compensate for the lack of sun. Ideally I like it when it is cold, snowy, and fairly sunny, but it ain't often like that. I quite like mild & sunny though. 

220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills
Matty H
10 November 2013 00:14:01

I'm definitively a mild weather fan. I absolutely despise cold weather with a passion. Trouble is, I love snow, and the two go hand in hand. 99.9% of winter is a miserable, stinking affair, but there's always a glimmer of hope that amongst the endless days of 7c and drizzle there will be the odd fall of snow.

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit 

Hi Matty H,

The main thing I dislike about winter is the lack of sun, it's bad for the soul. But I find that the excitement of ice & snow can compensate for the lack of sun. Ideally I like it when it is cold, snowy, and fairly sunny, but it ain't often like that. I quite like mild & sunny though. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Evening. I have a similar view. Certainly the lack of light is dreadful. As mammals I genuinely don't understand how anyone can "like" being cold; makes no sense at all to me.

I've been extremely lucky here the last few winters. We've had more than our fair share of snow. If this winter means little or no snow for here, then I'm hoping it's as mild as possible, even if that does mean it'll probably be wet.

Only 6 weeks to go until the nights start to draw out again and we start the passage to spring.

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Stormchaser
10 November 2013 01:15:20

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Trends in CFS are pretty much covered by this.

Currently it's for a very zonal November and December before marked changes in January towards a more blocked regime which becomes pronounced in February.

I'm watching February now, as it's consistently being shown to feature a lot of high latitude blocking and troughing across Europe. The signal really does resemble the one for March 2013. About 2 months ago, January was seeing such anomalies predicted, so it has been set back since then, but it seems to have settled on February now  *cue sudden changes over the next 10 days*

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

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2025's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 32.0°C 12th Aug | T-Min: -5.4°C 4th Jan | Wettest Day: 31.8 mm 18th Dec | Ice Days: None

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Gooner
10 November 2013 01:35:13

I'm definitively a mild weather fan. I absolutely despise cold weather with a passion. Trouble is, I love snow, and the two go hand in hand. 99.9% of winter is a miserable, stinking affair, but there's always a glimmer of hope that amongst the endless days of 7c and drizzle there will be the odd fall of snow.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Hi Matty H,

The main thing I dislike about winter is the lack of sun, it's bad for the soul. But I find that the excitement of ice & snow can compensate for the lack of sun. Ideally I like it when it is cold, snowy, and fairly sunny, but it ain't often like that. I quite like mild & sunny though. 

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit 



Evening. I have a similar view. Certainly the lack of light is dreadful. As mammals I genuinely don't understand how anyone can "like" being cold; makes no sense at all to me.

I've been extremely lucky here the last few winters. We've had more than our fair share of snow. If this winter means little or no snow for here, then I'm hoping it's as mild as possible, even if that does mean it'll probably be wet.

Only 6 weeks to go until the nights start to draw out again and we start the passage to spring.

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Yes just like March 2013

 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



polarwind
10 November 2013 08:46:44

I'm definitively a mild weather fan. I absolutely despise cold weather with a passion. Trouble is, I love snow, and the two go hand in hand. 99.9% of winter is a miserable, stinking affair, but there's always a glimmer of hope that amongst the endless days of 7c and drizzle there will be the odd fall of snow.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Hi Matty H,

The main thing I dislike about winter is the lack of sun, it's bad for the soul. But I find that the excitement of ice & snow can compensate for the lack of sun. Ideally I like it when it is cold, snowy, and fairly sunny, but it ain't often like that. I quite like mild & sunny though. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 



Evening. I have a similar view. Certainly the lack of light is dreadful. As mammals I genuinely don't understand how anyone can "like" being cold; makes no sense at all to me.

I've been extremely lucky here the last few winters. We've had more than our fair share of snow. If this winter means little or no snow for here, then I'm hoping it's as mild as possible, even if that does mean it'll probably be wet.

Only 6 weeks to go until the nights start to draw out again and we start the passage to spring.

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit 

Yes just like March 2013

 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

And April.

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Gooner
10 November 2013 09:51:50

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110906/cfs-8-1-2014.png?06

JFF JFF JFF JFF

Yes it is for fun 

CFS showing a bitter January

 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110906/cfs-8-2-2014.png?06

February aint that warm

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110906/cfs-8-3-2014.png?06

And moving into Spring

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Solar Cycles
10 November 2013 14:15:27

CFS really cranking up the cold for this coming winter which to be fair it's been pretty consistent at doing, whether or not it's right remains to be seen. Interestingly my  earlier thoughts from October could be pretty much right, which was for a mid Atlantic high setting up shop during this month and this migrating over towards Greenland with time. One area which was a concern for me during the last few weeks was the persistent +anomaly sitting over Europe, pressure finally looks like lowering there towards the latter part of this month. If I was a betting man which I'm not, then I would go for a cold but mostly dry December with any precipitation coming during the second half of December as heights link up from Greenland towards Scandinavia.

glenogle
10 November 2013 15:17:48

CFS really cranking up the cold for this coming winter which to be fair it's been pretty consistent at doing, whether or not it's right remains to be seen. Interestingly my  earlier thoughts from October could be pretty much right, which was for a mid Atlantic high setting up shop during this month and this migrating over towards Greenland with time. One area which was a concern for me during the last few weeks was the persistent +anomaly sitting over Europe, pressure finally looks like lowering there towards the latter part of this month. If I was a betting man which I'm not, then I would go for a cold but mostly dry December with any precipitation coming during the second half of December as heights link up from Greenland towards Scandinavia.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

 

Much like the quote of a blocked cold december that was attributed to the Meto, and the quote subsequently disappeared.  Makes you wonder if that was their actual thoughts, but did not want publically quoted as such due to the susceptability to change at such long range.

UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
nsrobins
10 November 2013 20:50:53

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110912/cfs-8-12-2013.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110912/cfs-8-1-2014.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110912/cfs-8-2-2014.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110912/cfs-8-3-2014.png?12

JFF JFF JFF JFF

CFS continues the idea of cold

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

February looks a tad chilly. 

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Those links are the 12Z Sat run. I can see the 18Z run and it's all looking normal again LOL (not that I look at them you understand)

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Solar Cycles
10 November 2013 20:52:09

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110912/cfs-8-12-2013.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110912/cfs-8-1-2014.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110912/cfs-8-2-2014.png?12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110912/cfs-8-3-2014.png?12

JFF JFF JFF JFF

CFS continues the idea of cold

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

February looks a tad chilly. 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Those links are the 12Z Sat run. I can see the 18Z run and it's all looking normal again LOL (not that I look at them you understand)

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Ignore the 18z as it relies on incomplete data. 

nsrobins
10 November 2013 21:37:45

Ignore the 18z as it relies on incomplete data. 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

moomin75
10 November 2013 21:40:32

Ignore the 18z as it relies on incomplete data. 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

Ignore any chart that shows normal as they will be wrong due to bad data!

Only accept charts that show a wintry armageddon - as they will be right with correct data.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Gooner
10 November 2013 23:20:05

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110918/cfs-8-1-2014.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

January looks below average for most .................wrap up Moomin

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



moomin75
10 November 2013 23:28:35

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110918/cfs-8-1-2014.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

January looks below average for most .................wrap up Moomin

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

You cherry-picking so-and-so!.

Love the way you didn't show December or February this time because December is toasty and February is average or just above.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Gooner
10 November 2013 23:31:10

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110918/cfs-8-1-2014.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

January looks below average for most .................wrap up Moomin

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

You cherry-picking so-and-so!.

Love the way you didn't show December or February this time because December is toasty and February is average or just above.

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110918/cfs-8-12-2013.png?18

December avg for some just above for others

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110918/cfs-8-2-2014.png?18

Feb average, on the brink of some raw weather

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



moomin75
10 November 2013 23:35:54

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110918/cfs-8-1-2014.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

January looks below average for most .................wrap up Moomin

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

You cherry-picking so-and-so!.

Love the way you didn't show December or February this time because December is toasty and February is average or just above.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110918/cfs-8-12-2013.png?18

December avg for some just above for others

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/runs/2013110918/cfs-8-2-2014.png?18

Feb average, on the brink of some raw weather

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

LOL...I know what I'm getting you for Christmas mate.

A nice pair of rose-tinted spectacles.

(Just kidding mate)!

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

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