The Weather Outlook

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roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
21 December 2013 09:57:05

Pity METO doesnt seem to be on the same route -January close to normal seems to be their take.

21 December 2013 18:25:49

Snowing...again in Bishkek Kyrgyzstan http://live.saimanet.kg/ru/cams/2#.UrXdAqg0JeM

glenogle
21 December 2013 23:15:04
No need to go abroad for your snow. Just view some of the cams up here
UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Whether Idle
23 December 2013 06:28:46

23/12 0z Control run gets briefly very interesting around t300 before succumbing to the Atlantic.  Caused by a low heading ESE across the Channel into Europe.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gooner
24 December 2013 14:37:10

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013122306/run2/cfsnh-0-870.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013122306/run2/cfsnh-2-870.png?06

JFF JFF

Be happy with this at the end of January

 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



sriram
24 December 2013 15:38:11

 

nice to see you bring up these chart but they dont materialise


Sriram

Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )

162m ASL

Gooner
24 December 2013 15:51:18

 

nice to see you bring up these chart but they dont materialise

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

They will one day

 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



nouska
26 December 2013 13:43:16

The met office look ahead at the rest of winter, note the mention of stratosphere being the main driver at present. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/i/A3_plots-temp-JFM.pdf

 

The November and December updates were definitely off key, will this one be the same?

Gooner
26 December 2013 14:27:19

SSW mentioned much later in the period , probably too late for any joy


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



nickl
26 December 2013 14:58:19

SSW mentioned much later in the period , probably too late for any joy

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

well timed to destroy the spring (again)

Gooner
27 December 2013 09:23:51

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013122606/run2/cfsnh-0-2016.png?06

JFF

March is looking promising at least

 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



nouska
28 December 2013 12:29:31

The met office look ahead at the rest of winter, note the mention of stratosphere being the main driver at present. 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/i/A3_plots-temp-JFM.pdf

The November and December updates were definitely off key, will this one be the same?

Originally Posted by: nouska 

Excuse me quoting my own post but the latest 30 day update from the Met office for January has relevance to the highlighted sentence.

UK Outlook for Sunday 12 Jan 2014 to Sunday 26 Jan 2014:

Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging suggesting temperatures being less mild in general terms than the last couple of weeks, and perhaps even significantly colder late in the month.

Updated: 1139 on Sat 28 Dec 2013

Saint Snow
29 December 2013 18:59:20

My own punt -winter overall above average  but February below.

 

Saint Snow back on 15/11/13 wrote:

 

My own punt would agree with you - around the 'slightly above average' mark. I think it'll be wet, too - in the region of 115% to 130% of average.

I think this November coldish snap will get excitement & expectation levels up, with the winter itself proving a bit of a disappointment; any cold spells being depressingly brief.

That's my winter forecast based on gut instinct and how I think the global pattern is behaving.

 

Originally Posted by: roger63 

 

Pah, it's easy this LRF'ing


Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

KevBrads1
31 December 2013 08:52:49

I have just released my long term forecast for the Winter 2013-2014 season. It can be found here:

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Winter-Seasonal-Prediction(2922573).htm

Originally Posted by: GIBBY 

I'm afraid your December prediction looks to be out by a margin by the looks of it.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

nouska
31 December 2013 09:18:35
For Gooner - a November chart from CFSV2, created by Recretos on the NW strat thread -

http://i.imgur.com/wPjFl9m.png 

..and the current forecast...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123018/gfsnh-10-384.png?18 

Fluke? or is it possible to model well ahead in a more stable layer of the atmosphere

polarwind
31 December 2013 09:29:38
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123018/gfsnh-10-384.png?18 

Fluke? or is it possible to model well ahead in a more stable layer of the atmosphere

A very interesting question to Gooner, nouska.


"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Gooner
31 December 2013 09:39:50

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013123018/gfsnh-10-384.png?18 

Fluke? or is it possible to model well ahead in a more stable layer of the atmosphere

Originally Posted by: polarwind 

A very interesting question to Gooner, nouska.

maybe that is where CFS's strength lies.......a fluke I guess


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
31 December 2013 14:49:01

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013123006/run2/cfsnh-0-882.png?06

JFF JFF JFF

CFS gives us a cold start to February

 

March also starts on a cold note

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013123006/run2/cfsnh-0-1470.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013123006/run2/cfsnh-2-1470.png?06

 

April starts on a cold note also

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013123006/run2/cfsnh-0-2208.png?06

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2013123006/run2/cfsnh-2-2208.png?06

 

 

 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



KevBrads1
31 December 2013 17:02:06

A waste of time.

CFS could stand for computerised fantasy scenarios

Complete fiction set-ups

Cannon fodder system


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Gooner
01 January 2014 09:58:28




A waste of time.

CFS could stand for computerised fantasy scenarios
Complete fiction set-ups
Cannon fodder system

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Most charts after 120 -144 are Kev, whats the betting the ECM 240 chart from this morning has changed completely on the 12z ?


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Quantum
01 January 2014 17:30:54

I do a personal yearly forecast every year (at least I have for the last 5 years). I've never published before though, thought I might here anyway see if it holds up.

2014

January

Milder than average especially at first and very unsettled, a chance of cold snowy periods later.

CET above normal

February

Potentially coldest month of the winter, some snow showers likely in S and E. Unlikely to be overly cold or prolonged though.

CET below normal

March

Settled, dry, rather chilly. Some late frosts and even wintry showers. Sunshine prevalent

CET below normal

April

Showery. Slightly below average temperatures. Some settled spells

CET slightly below average

May

 Extremely dry and sunny. Chilly winds at first, although very warm weather possible later. Perhaps an early heatwave.

CET around average

June

Very dry theme continuing. Some rather cool sea breezes making temps chilly at times. Somewhat below average temperatures.

CET slightly below average

July

Another dry month especially in the east. However it will be warmer than june with a few thundery outbreaks possible

CET above average

August

The dry run ends with august. Changeable, sometimes very wet or showery but still often mild.

CET slightly above average

September

Dry, rather warm and perhaps thundery. 'Indian summer'.

CET much above average

October

Probably a little drier than average

CET around average

November

Drier than average theme perhaps continuing. Average temps, becoming chilly.

CET slightly below average

December

Changable. Mix of short cold wintry spells and warmer mild spells.

CET around average.

 

I put quite a lot of work into these every year (despite them looking so short). Although only people I know have got to see them before. Its based on a bit of pattern matching and long range models mostly. I don't expect it to be that accurate; mostly just for fun. 

 

 

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

nouska
04 January 2014 19:18:56
I'll pop this in here as they don't want strat stuff in the model thread.

http://i.imgur.com/eFeJpJP.gif 

http://i.imgur.com/rJWZnIm.gif 

I'm wondering if this is a result of the strong cross polar warming going on next week at the 1mb level -

http://i.imgur.com/ba0rw3r.gif 

..and finally, is the split shown at the end of the run at the 500mb level also part of the of the process - any thoughts?

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/2873/gfsnh-0-384_ild0.png 

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ 

NDJF
05 January 2014 10:20:26

do i sense a higher level of urgency this time around with regards to cold and snowy weather, were we not in the same postion last winter? as many point out first nationwide cold / snow didnt appear until after 20th. whats different this winter? the challenge is the mix opf posts across various forums and not general consistency, some massive cold rampers in the mix of stability and sanity.

only in Britain..

Brendon Hills Bandit
06 January 2014 18:16:14
As a cold weather & snow lover, I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that this winter will probably be quite dissapointing in regard to cold & snow in the UK. It's just a kind of hunch I've had for a while, perhaps influenced by the mild winter in Europe so far and the intense cold in North America. I feel that there might be a decent cold spell in the UK in February, but nothing spectacular. It just feels like with this winter, the spirit of cold Uk weather is absent.

Speaking of hunches, don't know if anyone else thinks this but I feel that there might be an epic UK winter in the next 5 years or so.


220m asl, edge of Brendon Hills

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