As a cold weather & snow lover, I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that this winter will probably be quite dissapointing in regard to cold & snow in the UK. It's just a kind of hunch I've had for a while, perhaps influenced by the mild winter in Europe so far and the intense cold in North America. I feel that there might be a decent cold spell in the UK in February, but nothing spectacular. It just feels like with this winter, the spirit of cold Uk weather is absent.

Speaking of hunches, don't know if anyone else thinks this but I feel that there might be an epic UK winter in the next 5 years or so.

Hampshire rarely gets snow anyhow. What is wierd is the lack of frost which makes me think that this is a winter to remember, but not for cold or snow. The last two Years were exceptional with blizzard like conditions. I think a mild winter is likely and with the clock ticking, spring is almost within striking distance would you agree, at least in UK weather terms.

Perhaps a 'winter over' thread is not far now. I just hope that the cold spell does not arrive in March for 3 Months. I'm not sure I can go through another period of damp, cold , cloudy dross.

TOny 

not sure what to make of the strat (post ecm data timescale) nouska. been a little erratic recently.  still seems that the metoffice must be hanging their hat on developments in this direction come the back end of the month (although todays update indicates a delay into feb from the back end of jan)

some excitment around this morning regarding model output for next week, see BG has mentinon possibility on home page, when the Met reference it - its time to tell the kids......(5 times bitten...)

MY WINTER 2013-2014 FORECAST

This is purely based on my own pattern matching method which compares weather pattern types, temperature and rainfall tendencies.  A very interesting and fascinating set up for this Winter! , especially Jan-Feb.

December 2013 - first half

Seems to be a signal for rather cool and dry conditions through this period.  High Pressure will be never too far away from the UK, with some transient cold NW to Northerly episodes giving some wintry precipitation mainly in the north.

December 2013- second half

Becoming more unsettled and also milder with S to SW winds becoming more dominant.  Wet in the west, rainfall closer to normal further east.

January 2014

Some very interesting signals developing for January.   Firstly, I think there will be quite a strong zonal influence throughout this month, with frequent depressions tracking towards the UK bringing gales and bands of rain and showers to all parts.  But to complicate matters, it looks like cold conditions are slightly more likely to dominate than mild conditions through this period.  This leads me to believe we’ll be seeing some form of “Cold Zonality” through January, resulting in a few significant snow events.  In this situation, I would expect the most significant snowfalls will occur further north, with more transient lighter snowfalls further south. 

February 2014 - first half

Probably the wettest part of the whole Winter, and although it will be less cold,  there’s still the risk of a cold outbreak in this period.

February 2014 - second half

A strong cold signal is suggested for this period. However it looks more likely to be drier too, so it could suggest more Anticyclonic conditions developing.  However, it looks like there’ll be a fairly strong Continental influence too.  So I would say that for many it will be a fairly dry but cold and frosty spell, with some wintry precipitation possible in eastern areas especially.

In Summary:

DECEMBER:  Rather dry, near normal temperatures.

JANUARY:   Likely to be a rather cold, snowy and wet month in the north of the UK, a closer to average month overall in the south due to more influence from warm sector conditions.

FEBRUARY:  Rather cold, near normal rainfall.

WINTER OVERALL:  Slightly dry generally, but wet in the north.  Rather cold Winter, especially in the north.

 

This is looking pretty good so far (although the amount of rain in the second half of December was even greater and more widespread than you thought). Your "summary" makes for less accurate reading than the detailed breakdown of December, though, that's for sure!

Amazing how little snowcover there currently is across Europe:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.png

I expect this will begin to change somewhat next week though!

MY WINTER 2013-2014 FORECAST

This is purely based on my own pattern matching method which compares weather pattern types, temperature and rainfall tendencies.  A very interesting and fascinating set up for this Winter! , especially Jan-Feb.

December 2013 - first half

Seems to be a signal for rather cool and dry conditions through this period.  High Pressure will be never too far away from the UK, with some transient cold NW to Northerly episodes giving some wintry precipitation mainly in the north.

December 2013- second half

Becoming more unsettled and also milder with S to SW winds becoming more dominant.  Wet in the west, rainfall closer to normal further east.

January 2014

Some very interesting signals developing for January.   Firstly, I think there will be quite a strong zonal influence throughout this month, with frequent depressions tracking towards the UK bringing gales and bands of rain and showers to all parts.  But to complicate matters, it looks like cold conditions are slightly more likely to dominate than mild conditions through this period.  This leads me to believe we’ll be seeing some form of “Cold Zonality” through January, resulting in a few significant snow events.  In this situation, I would expect the most significant snowfalls will occur further north, with more transient lighter snowfalls further south. 

February 2014 - first half

Probably the wettest part of the whole Winter, and although it will be less cold,  there’s still the risk of a cold outbreak in this period.

February 2014 - second half

A strong cold signal is suggested for this period. However it looks more likely to be drier too, so it could suggest more Anticyclonic conditions developing.  However, it looks like there’ll be a fairly strong Continental influence too.  So I would say that for many it will be a fairly dry but cold and frosty spell, with some wintry precipitation possible in eastern areas especially.

In Summary:

DECEMBER:  Rather dry, near normal temperatures.

JANUARY:   Likely to be a rather cold, snowy and wet month in the north of the UK, a closer to average month overall in the south due to more influence from warm sector conditions.

FEBRUARY:  Rather cold, near normal rainfall.

WINTER OVERALL:  Slightly dry generally, but wet in the north.  Rather cold Winter, especially in the north.

 

This is looking pretty good so far (although the amount of rain in the second half of December was even greater and more widespread than you thought). Your "summary" makes for less accurate reading than the detailed breakdown of December, though, that's for sure!

Thanks Rob. Regarding my December forecast, although it was fairly accurate for my area regarding rainfall, I certainly didn't expect the huge amounts further south though.  

Yes, fairly pleased with the Jan forecast so far.  What I noticed about the January pattern matches was the strong Zonal signal + a fairly solid Cold/snowy signal too.  It was always going to be difficult to predict how this combination would play out.   Obviously we're getting hints of that now in the model output.

As a cold weather & snow lover, I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that this winter will probably be quite dissapointing in regard to cold & snow in the UK. It's just a kind of hunch I've had for a while, perhaps influenced by the mild winter in Europe so far and the intense cold in North America. I feel that there might be a decent cold spell in the UK in February, but nothing spectacular. It just feels like with this winter, the spirit of cold Uk weather is absent.

Speaking of hunches, don't know if anyone else thinks this but I feel that there might be an epic UK winter in the next 5 years or so.

Hampshire rarely gets snow anyhow. What is wierd is the lack of frost which makes me think that this is a winter to remember, but not for cold or snow. The last two Years were exceptional with blizzard like conditions. I think a mild winter is likely and with the clock ticking, spring is almost within striking distance would you agree, at least in UK weather terms.

Perhaps a 'winter over' thread is not far now. I just hope that the cold spell does not arrive in March for 3 Months. I'm not sure I can go through another period of damp, cold , cloudy dross.

TOny 

 

Maybe down there but up here in The Alps its a different story. We have snowfalls every year at some point with the exception of the dismal 2005/06 winter. I have also recorded several frosts this winter although have yet to breach the -3'C threshold.

As for whats coming, I expect a cold spell in February as is almost routine in zonal winters. Whether it'll be anything more than a week of colder weather who knows!

Anyway - just to lighten the mood, heres my road on 14th January 2010

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

So far, so good.

Amazing how little snowcover there currently is across Europe:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.png

 

I expect this will begin to change somewhat next week though!

Blimey that is a shocker, I have to say that is unexpected

Amazing how little snowcover there currently is across Europe:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.png

 

I expect this will begin to change somewhat next week though!

Blimey that is a shocker, I have to say that is unexpected

Stroll on!

I guess the fact that we have been repeatedly battered with LP to the NW has meant that vast swathes of Europe have endured Atlantic warmth or simply Euro HP conditions further SE

Latest offer from CFS for Feb....................is Winter proper ................I am running out of straws, but someone has to keep grabbing then

This mornings CFS 9month has a very cold and snowy January.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Obviously its early days but the signs look good for another cold winter.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2874&mode=2&carte=0&run=1 

Amazing how little snowcover there currently is across Europe:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.png

 

I expect this will begin to change somewhat next week though!

Blimey that is a shocker, I have to say that is unexpected

This is a real eye-opener, I can't remember seeing it so iceless in January:

http://www.itameriportaali.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/

I have a feeling that winter 2013/14 in the UK will go down as one of the mildest and least snowy in the modern era. I am a cold lover but it seems like the majority of cold lovers on here are clutching at straws hoping for a decent cold snap. Here in the south east, we have not seen a single flake of snow and frosts have been limited. Heaven knows how mild it must be in the West Country.

I guess we have been spoiled a bit with the last few winters!

Gut feeling is a rather ordinary winter with no prolonged, widespread, cold or snow.

And using my patent Antipodean method, it's looking like a rather mild winter with probably at least one record warm month    Though this does not preclude some decent snow, especially in upland areas.

I have a feeling that winter 2013/14 in the UK will go down as one of the mildest and least snowy in the modern era. I am a cold lover but it seems like the majority of cold lovers on here are clutching at straws hoping for a decent cold snap. Here in the south east, we have not seen a single flake of snow and frosts have been limited. Heaven knows how mild it must be in the West Country.

I guess we have been spoiled a bit with the last few winters!

 

It depends when you start the 'modern era' from, I have been in my current job for 17 years it was only only the last 4 that caused us to close the doors or leave early, we had many 'snowless winters during that time.

IMBY comment of course

The one indicator that suggested a mild winter was the positive QBO.METO have mentioned it in their contingency forecast but eventually there contingency forecast was for  near to slightly below average.

I've has a look at the QBO data.The amplitude of QBO positive cycles is less tha QBO negative.Strong +ve Qbo's have values over +10 but usuall dont last long at that levelLooking through the data the longest lasting over 10 period were 8months in 1985 and 1990.Both were follwed by cold Februaries.The current strong + QBO 2013 has already lasted 8months!

The one indicator that suggested a mild winter was the positive QBO.METO have mentioned it in their contingency forecast but eventually there contingency forecast was for  near to slightly below average.

I've has a look at the QBO data.The amplitude of QBO positive cycles is less tha QBO negative.Strong +ve Qbo's have values over +10 but usuall dont last long at that levelLooking through the data the longest lasting over 10 period were 8months in 1985 and 1990.Both were follwed by cold Februaries.The current strong + QBO 2013 has already lasted 8months!

should expect an end fairly soon then

The one indicator that suggested a mild winter was the positive QBO.METO have mentioned it in their contingency forecast but eventually there contingency forecast was for  near to slightly below average.

I've has a look at the QBO data.The amplitude of QBO positive cycles is less tha QBO negative.Strong +ve Qbo's have values over +10 but usuall dont last long at that levelLooking through the data the longest lasting over 10 period were 8months in 1985 and 1990.Both were follwed by cold Februaries.The current strong + QBO 2013 has already lasted 8months!

should expect an end fairly soon then

Whilst last March's cold & snow was interesting, I'm not sure I'd want a repeat. For one, the snow didn't stay around for that long each fall - and the roads especially cleared quickly (). Secondly, by March I'm looking for some spells of sunny & warmish weather to set the scene for hopefully a sweltering & drought-filled summer.

The one indicator that suggested a mild winter was the positive QBO.METO have mentioned it in their contingency forecast but eventually there contingency forecast was for  near to slightly below average.

I've has a look at the QBO data.The amplitude of QBO positive cycles is less tha QBO negative.Strong +ve Qbo's have values over +10 but usuall dont last long at that levelLooking through the data the longest lasting over 10 period were 8months in 1985 and 1990.Both were follwed by cold Februaries.The current strong + QBO 2013 has already lasted 8months!

should expect an end fairly soon then

 

Whilst last March's cold & snow was interesting, I'm not sure I'd want a repeat. For one, the snow didn't stay around for that long each fall - and the roads especially cleared quickly (). Secondly, by March I'm looking for some spells of sunny & warmish weather to set the scene for hopefully a sweltering & drought-filled summer.

Thats rare in Summer let alone Saint..........................did you forget this is the UK