Winter 2013/14 Prospects and Forecasts· Page 37

NDJF
Guest

08 January 2014 08:25:50

some excitment around this morning regarding model output for next week, see BG has mentinon possibility on home page, when the Met reference it - its time to tell the kids......(5 times bitten...)

Rob K
Advanced Member

09 January 2014 11:09:35

#904

MY WINTER 2013-2014 FORECAST

This is purely based on my own pattern matching method which compares weather pattern types, temperature and rainfall tendencies. A very interesting and fascinating set up for this Winter! , especially Jan-Feb.

December 2013 - first half

Seems to be a signal for rather cool and dry conditions through this period. High Pressure will be never too far away from the UK, with some transient cold NW to Northerly episodes giving some wintry precipitation mainly in the north.

December 2013- second half

Becoming more unsettled and also milder with S to SW winds becoming more dominant. Wet in the west, rainfall closer to normal further east.

January 2014

Some very interesting signals developing for January. Firstly, I think there will be quite a strong zonal influence throughout this month, with frequent depressions tracking towards the UK bringing gales and bands of rain and showers to all parts. But to complicate matters, it looks like cold conditions are slightly more likely to dominate than mild conditions through this period. This leads me to believe we’ll be seeing some form of “Cold Zonality” through January, resulting in a few significant snow events. In this situation, I would expect the most significant snowfalls will occur further north, with more transient lighter snowfalls further south.

February 2014 - first half

Probably the wettest part of the whole Winter, and although it will be less cold, there’s still the risk of a cold outbreak in this period.

February 2014 - second half

A strong cold signal is suggested for this period. However it looks more likely to be drier too, so it could suggest more Anticyclonic conditions developing. However, it looks like there’ll be a fairly strong Continental influence too. So I would say that for many it will be a fairly dry but cold and frosty spell, with some wintry precipitation possible in eastern areas especially.

In Summary:

DECEMBER: Rather dry, near normal temperatures.

JANUARY: Likely to be a rather cold, snowy and wet month in the north of the UK, a closer to average month overall in the south due to more influence from warm sector conditions.

FEBRUARY: Rather cold, near normal rainfall.

WINTER OVERALL: Slightly dry generally, but wet in the north. Rather cold Winter, especially in the north.

Originally Posted by: Andy J

This is looking pretty good so far (although the amount of rain in the second half of December was even greater and more widespread than you thought). Your "summary" makes for less accurate reading than the detailed breakdown of December, though, that's for sure!

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Twister
Advanced Member

09 January 2014 13:01:04

#905

Amazing how little snowcover there currently is across Europe:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.png

I expect this will begin to change somewhat next week though!

Location: Egerton, Kent - 33m ASL

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Winter 2016/7: Snowfalls: 4 (Jan 12-3, Feb 10-11) | Snowcover: 2 (Jan 13, 2cm, Feb 11, 3-5mm) | Air frosts: 57 (2 in Oct, 10 in Nov, 13 in Dec, 19 in Jan, 6 in Feb, 3 in Mar, 4 in Apr)

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Andy J
Advanced Member

09 January 2014 13:31:54

#906

MY WINTER 2013-2014 FORECAST

This is purely based on my own pattern matching method which compares weather pattern types, temperature and rainfall tendencies. A very interesting and fascinating set up for this Winter! , especially Jan-Feb.

December 2013 - first half

Seems to be a signal for rather cool and dry conditions through this period. High Pressure will be never too far away from the UK, with some transient cold NW to Northerly episodes giving some wintry precipitation mainly in the north.

December 2013- second half

Becoming more unsettled and also milder with S to SW winds becoming more dominant. Wet in the west, rainfall closer to normal further east.

January 2014

Some very interesting signals developing for January. Firstly, I think there will be quite a strong zonal influence throughout this month, with frequent depressions tracking towards the UK bringing gales and bands of rain and showers to all parts. But to complicate matters, it looks like cold conditions are slightly more likely to dominate than mild conditions through this period. This leads me to believe we’ll be seeing some form of “Cold Zonality” through January, resulting in a few significant snow events. In this situation, I would expect the most significant snowfalls will occur further north, with more transient lighter snowfalls further south.

February 2014 - first half

Probably the wettest part of the whole Winter, and although it will be less cold, there’s still the risk of a cold outbreak in this period.

February 2014 - second half

A strong cold signal is suggested for this period. However it looks more likely to be drier too, so it could suggest more Anticyclonic conditions developing. However, it looks like there’ll be a fairly strong Continental influence too. So I would say that for many it will be a fairly dry but cold and frosty spell, with some wintry precipitation possible in eastern areas especially.

In Summary:

DECEMBER: Rather dry, near normal temperatures.

JANUARY: Likely to be a rather cold, snowy and wet month in the north of the UK, a closer to average month overall in the south due to more influence from warm sector conditions.

FEBRUARY: Rather cold, near normal rainfall.

WINTER OVERALL: Slightly dry generally, but wet in the north. Rather cold Winter, especially in the north.

Originally Posted by: Rob K

This is looking pretty good so far (although the amount of rain in the second half of December was even greater and more widespread than you thought). Your "summary" makes for less accurate reading than the detailed breakdown of December, though, that's for sure!

Originally Posted by: Andy J

Thanks Rob. Regarding my December forecast, although it was fairly accurate for my area regarding rainfall, I certainly didn't expect the huge amounts further south though.

Yes, fairly pleased with the Jan forecast so far. What I noticed about the January pattern matches was the strong Zonal signal + a fairly solid Cold/snowy signal too. It was always going to be difficult to predict how this combination would play out. Obviously we're getting hints of that now in the model output.

Gainsborough, Lincolnshire.

Sevendust
Guest

10 January 2014 13:19:49

#907

As a cold weather & snow lover, I've kind of resigned myself to the fact that this winter will probably be quite dissapointing in regard to cold & snow in the UK. It's just a kind of hunch I've had for a while, perhaps influenced by the mild winter in Europe so far and the intense cold in North America. I feel that there might be a decent cold spell in the UK in February, but nothing spectacular. It just feels like with this winter, the spirit of cold Uk weather is absent.

Speaking of hunches, don't know if anyone else thinks this but I feel that there might be an epic UK winter in the next 5 years or so.

Originally Posted by: tony73

Hampshire rarely gets snow anyhow. What is wierd is the lack of frost which makes me think that this is a winter to remember, but not for cold or snow. The last two Years were exceptional with blizzard like conditions. I think a mild winter is likely and with the clock ticking, spring is almost within striking distance would you agree, at least in UK weather terms.

Perhaps a 'winter over' thread is not far now. I just hope that the cold spell does not arrive in March for 3 Months. I'm not sure I can go through another period of damp, cold , cloudy dross.

TOny

Originally Posted by: Brendon Hills Bandit

Maybe down there but up here in The Alps its a different story. We have snowfalls every year at some point with the exception of the dismal 2005/06 winter. I have also recorded several frosts this winter although have yet to breach the -3'C threshold.

As for whats coming, I expect a cold spell in February as is almost routine in zonal winters. Whether it'll be anything more than a week of colder weather who knows!

Anyway - just to lighten the mood, heres my road on 14th January 2010

Edited by user 10 January 2014 13:27:12 | Reason: Not specified

Snow Hoper
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 14:40:20

#908

I reckon we'll be in for a mild, wet and windy winter with limited cold especially across the south

Originally Posted by: Snow Hoper

So far, so good.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Gooner
Advanced Member

10 January 2014 19:07:20

#909

Amazing how little snowcover there currently is across Europe:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.png

I expect this will begin to change somewhat next week though!

Originally Posted by: Twister

Blimey that is a shocker, I have to say that is unexpected

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Sevendust
Guest

11 January 2014 06:06:48

#910

Amazing how little snowcover there currently is across Europe:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.png

I expect this will begin to change somewhat next week though!

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Blimey that is a shocker, I have to say that is unexpected

Originally Posted by: Twister

Stroll on!

I guess the fact that we have been repeatedly battered with LP to the NW has meant that vast swathes of Europe have endured Atlantic warmth or simply Euro HP conditions further SE

Gooner
Advanced Member

11 January 2014 10:21:07

#911

Latest offer from CFS for Feb....................is Winter proper ................I am running out of straws, but someone has to keep grabbing then

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Matty H
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 07:56:04

#912

This mornings CFS 9month has a very cold and snowy January. Obviously its early days but the signs look good for another cold winter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2874&mode=2&carte=0&run=1

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman

[sn_bsmil]

Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Retron
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 09:00:04

#913

Amazing how little snowcover there currently is across Europe:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.001.png

I expect this will begin to change somewhat next week though!

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Blimey that is a shocker, I have to say that is unexpected

Originally Posted by: Twister

This is a real eye-opener, I can't remember seeing it so iceless in January:

http://www.itameriportaali.fi/en/itamerinyt/en_GB/jaatilanne/

Leysdown, north Kent

Snowjoke
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 09:10:57

#914

I have a feeling that winter 2013/14 in the UK will go down as one of the mildest and least snowy in the modern era. I am a cold lover but it seems like the majority of cold lovers on here are clutching at straws hoping for a decent cold snap. Here in the south east, we have not seen a single flake of snow and frosts have been limited. Heaven knows how mild it must be in the West Country.

I guess we have been spoiled a bit with the last few winters!

Essan
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 09:19:47

#915

Gut feeling is a rather ordinary winter with no prolonged, widespread, cold or snow.

And using my patent Antipodean method, it's looking like a rather mild winter with probably at least one record warm month Though this does not preclude some decent snow, especially in upland areas.

Originally Posted by: Essan

Er, looking rather good so far, especially given that this was back in September ......

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

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Gooner
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 10:12:05

#916

I have a feeling that winter 2013/14 in the UK will go down as one of the mildest and least snowy in the modern era. I am a cold lover but it seems like the majority of cold lovers on here are clutching at straws hoping for a decent cold snap. Here in the south east, we have not seen a single flake of snow and frosts have been limited. Heaven knows how mild it must be in the West Country.

I guess we have been spoiled a bit with the last few winters!

Originally Posted by: Snowjoke

It depends when you start the 'modern era' from, I have been in my current job for 17 years it was only only the last 4 that caused us to close the doors or leave early, we had many 'snowless winters during that time.

IMBY comment of course

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

roger63
Advanced Member Topic Starter

12 January 2014 13:23:08

#917

The one indicator that suggested a mild winter was the positive QBO.METO have mentioned it in their contingency forecast but eventually there contingency forecast was for near to slightly below average.

I've has a look at the QBO data.The amplitude of QBO positive cycles is less tha QBO negative.Strong +ve Qbo's have values over +10 but usuall dont last long at that levelLooking through the data the longest lasting over 10 period were 8months in 1985 and 1990.Both were follwed by cold Februaries.The current strong + QBO 2013 has already lasted 8months!

Gooner
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 13:44:19

#918

The one indicator that suggested a mild winter was the positive QBO.METO have mentioned it in their contingency forecast but eventually there contingency forecast was for near to slightly below average.

I've has a look at the QBO data.The amplitude of QBO positive cycles is less tha QBO negative.Strong +ve Qbo's have values over +10 but usuall dont last long at that levelLooking through the data the longest lasting over 10 period were 8months in 1985 and 1990.Both were follwed by cold Februaries.The current strong + QBO 2013 has already lasted 8months!

Originally Posted by: roger63

should expect an end fairly soon then

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Saint Snow
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 15:26:42

#919

The one indicator that suggested a mild winter was the positive QBO.METO have mentioned it in their contingency forecast but eventually there contingency forecast was for near to slightly below average.

I've has a look at the QBO data.The amplitude of QBO positive cycles is less tha QBO negative.Strong +ve Qbo's have values over +10 but usuall dont last long at that levelLooking through the data the longest lasting over 10 period were 8months in 1985 and 1990.Both were follwed by cold Februaries.The current strong + QBO 2013 has already lasted 8months!

Originally Posted by: Gooner

should expect an end fairly soon then

Originally Posted by: roger63

Whilst last March's cold & snow was interesting, I'm not sure I'd want a repeat. For one, the snow didn't stay around for that long each fall - and the roads especially cleared quickly (). Secondly, by March I'm looking for some spells of sunny & warmish weather to set the scene for hopefully a sweltering & drought-filled summer.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

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Gooner
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 15:46:16

#920

The one indicator that suggested a mild winter was the positive QBO.METO have mentioned it in their contingency forecast but eventually there contingency forecast was for near to slightly below average.

I've has a look at the QBO data.The amplitude of QBO positive cycles is less tha QBO negative.Strong +ve Qbo's have values over +10 but usuall dont last long at that levelLooking through the data the longest lasting over 10 period were 8months in 1985 and 1990.Both were follwed by cold Februaries.The current strong + QBO 2013 has already lasted 8months!

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

should expect an end fairly soon then

Originally Posted by: Gooner

Whilst last March's cold & snow was interesting, I'm not sure I'd want a repeat. For one, the snow didn't stay around for that long each fall - and the roads especially cleared quickly (). Secondly, by March I'm looking for some spells of sunny & warmish weather to set the scene for hopefully a sweltering & drought-filled summer.

Originally Posted by: roger63

Thats rare in Summer let alone Saint..........................did you forget this is the UK

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

bruced
Advanced Member

12 January 2014 18:25:21

#921

Well, so far this winter has been one of the most unsettled and mildest for a long time (is it any coincidence that the solar cycle is very active?). Some are saying this winter is a throwback to the winters of the 1990s - IMO, there is one subtle difference. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the jetstream (extremely strong as it is) has been further south than it was in those mobile winters of yesteryear. Instead of roaring away to the North of the UK near Iceland and allowing higher pressure over the near continent, this winter has seen it flow across, or just to the south, of the UK...bombarding the whole of the UK with wind and rain. The jetstream has also dug a comparatively long way south in the mid-Atlantic.

Now that a large Scandi high has/is forming and is projected to linger, would that lead to increased wave activity, as we saw last winter (IIRC), which would then lead to warming pressures in the stratosphere??

David, Northallerton

David

Stormchaser
Advanced Member

13 January 2014 23:44:36

#922

After a serious fail in predicting December 2013, I gave CFS a wide berth for a while.

I couldn't resist glancing at it tonight though, in light of the models trending towards a stronger and stronger block to our east. I kind of expected to see raging zonality from CFS, and yet...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

That has Euro troughing and easterlies written all over it, there's even scope for some regression towards Greenland...!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

March resembles 2013's ordeal, but maybe less blocked to our NW with more of an Atlantic influence.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd3.gif

Blocking is signalled to peak in April and give a soggy month.

Make of it what you will - and don't take it too seriously. The February chart does make a lot of sense based on current trop/strat projections, though...

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Essan
Advanced Member

14 January 2014 12:35:46

#923

Whilst last March's cold & snow was interesting, I'm not sure I'd want a repeat. For one, the snow didn't stay around for that long each fall - and the roads especially cleared quickly (). Secondly, by March I'm looking for some spells of sunny & warmish weather to set the scene for hopefully a sweltering & drought-filled summer.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow

Aye, whilst I observed snow falling on 7 days in March last year, there was 50% snow cover at 09z on exactly zero days. Hardly wintry! I preferred the previous March - spring is the best time of year for warm sunny weather, IMO, cos it's not too hot and humid to be able to enjoy, and nights continue to be reasonably cool

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more