You're making the classic error of confusing the quality of the presentation with the quality of the forecast. Some LRFs are extremely well wrote and thought out, but are they more accurate than, say, Moomins? Arguably not, and that's my point and that of many others. It's not confrontational, it's a view. No one has to like it, but you would hope they would accept it rather than belittling it. Also, TWO isn't "Famous for it's long range forecasts" as far as I've been aware in the 10+ years I've been on here. Gavin, Brian and a few others are very well respected amateur forecasters. No one, certainly not I, is attacking them in anyway. Gavin is a good friend of mine, but that doesn't meant the ethos of long range forecasting cannot or should not be questioned. As I've said before, when an agency starts churning out seasonal forecasts with a consistent degree of accuracy then we'll be getting somewhere. Obviously practice makes perfect, so all attempts that are based on a reputable theory are valid, but my personal opinion is that seasonal forecasting may never be possible with any real degree of accuracy due to that countless variables. The professionals currently struggle beyond 10 days, let alone 90. Maybe one day.
Matty...are you suggesting that my forecasts are not thought out?
I can assure you that they are, and I spend a lot of time on them.
I have actually had some very accurate ones in the past, but equally some that were a complete fail - such is the nature of LRF'ing.
Despite what you say, it is not ALL guess work - there really is some method in my LRF as there is in most I would suggest.
As you say, if we just gave up doing them, then we would never get anywhere.
Weather forecasting is very much an inexact science, but that doesn't (or at least shouldn't) prevent people from trying their methodology into producing something.
My methodology is always put at the top of the forecast, and I don't hide the fact that it is predominantly pattern matching, SSTs and sunspot activty.
I don't make any brash statements any more (I know I used to and got up the nose of a lot of Mods, yourself particularly).
I just publish my thoughts on this fantastic forum, and let everyone else read into it what they will.
One thing I don't do is over-sensationalise anything. If I see signals for a mild winter, I will call a mild winter. I won't write what people want to read, because that really would be totally pointless and a waste of my many hours going into producing it.
As mentioned before, nothing and nobody will stop me doing this.
I think this is my 7th winter LRF, and I've had varying degrees of success.
What I will do at some stage - perhaps after my 10th - is have a lot at stats and accuracy and see if I can filter some more methods into what I produce in the future.
By that I mean, a sample of 10 of my own LRFs, using EXACTLY the same methodology each year, will hopefully start to produce a pattern of sorts.
My best call was 2010-11, my worst was arguably last winter, when I did not see the bitter and frigid March (but did anybody?).
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL