CFS scores update following the 18z run.

DECEMBER 2013

Pressure

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland High)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 2

Temperature

Well below average - 1   Slightly below average - 0   Average - 0   Slightly above average - 2   Well above average - 0

JANUARY 2014

Pressure

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 3 (2 x Greenland to Scandinavia, 1 x Greenland)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0

Temperature

Well below average - 3   Slightly below average - 0   Average - 0   Slightly above average - 0   Well above average - 0

FEBRUARY 2014

Pressure

 Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 3 (1 x Greenland to Scandinavia, 2 x Greenland)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0

Temperature

Well below average - 1   Slightly below average - 2   Average - 0   Slightly above average - 0   Well above average - 0

CHRISTMAS 2013

Pressure

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 2

Temperature

Well below average - 1   Slightly below average - 0   Average - 0   Slightly above average - 2   Well above average - 0

Anyway. My post was a question/other factor to consider. What bearing did the number of huricanes/timing of in the season, have on the following winter. Ie this season quiet so far. Are there similar years to compare against

 LLTNP 105m asl 

Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

November and December both look quite cold, IMO.

I'd take a repeat of Nov/Dec 2010!!

Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

November and December both look quite cold, IMO.

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

I wish I could understand that model

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

It's fairly straight forward. Each box represents a different element. Main boxes to focus on are;

1. TS (Temperature)

2. Rain

3. Z500 (500mbr heights)

4. PSEA (Sea Level Pressure)

Just move the charts on one month at a time - Three monthly period is curently covering Oct-Dec.

Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

November and December both look quite cold, IMO.

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

I wish I could understand that model

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

It's fairly straight forward. Each box represents a different element. Main boxes to focus on are;

1. TS (Temperature)

2. Rain

3. Z500 (500mbr heights)

4. PSEA (Sea Level Pressure)

Just move the charts on one month at a time - Three monthly period is curently covering Oct-Dec.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Thanks Gavin. I didn't understand all the abbreviations.

Look forward to your next few videos.

I see what you mean about Northern Blocking starting to show up already from looking at the latest GFS and ECM charts.

Cheers Gav

I don't believe in the odds that we're due a mild winter because malarky.

Why not look at this another way and say that we're due a crippling 2 months with feet of snow in most parts of the country starting on December 25th?

Statistcal twaddle!

Either the winter pattern is random, in which case last year is no guide to this year (in the same way that if a coin was heads last time that 'proves' it will be tails this time); or else there is a pattern established, in which case next winter is more likely to be like last winter than not.

Are you kidding me?! Last winter was insane, it came very late (march instead of december) but the snow was 50ft+ deep in the pennine drifts in Early april!!! I think that march was the cloest I have ever seen the -15C 850 isotherm come. For March it certainly rivalled Dec 2010 in extremity. What we really all secretly want, is for us to have another Dec 2010 or March 2012, but in JANUARY!

For what it's worth last Winter was cold here and we had a good fall of snow in January

This is, and always be, the problem, its rarer than rocking horse s**t that we get countrywide snowfall events so people's opinions of a particular winter or event will always be skewed

FWIW i think last sprngs cold spell was unusual and interesting meteorologically plus it snowed a fair few times here albeit it never really settled

Don`t you mean March 2013?? Anyway last winter was about the best you`re gonna get if you`re a fan of cold.Just because there isnt 6ft of snow every week doesnt mean a winter can`t be v cold,Feb `86 is a classic example of this!!

March 2013 was about as cold as it is possible to be in the uk,for march and to say most of the uk didn`t have snow is laughable.Agreed nothing in the south but above the midlands,wales,NI were buried in it i seem to recall.Also i can`t remember a winter as long as 2012/13,it seem to start as soon as bst ended and didn`t relent until second half of April,spring was a month late coming even down here!

All we can be sure of for the coming winter is it will be darker and the temperature will be lower than it is now,just how much lower is anyones guess. Guess being the key word!

Anyone who is aware of the epic slow-moving frontal snow events that have occured across Britain in the past will be left wanting for countless years... but in theory it should eventually happen.

What I'm talking about is an event like the blizzard of '78, in which the frontal system is not a feeble affair or half-rain or some other failing like that - instead the energy piles in from the west, slams into a deep cold airmass across the UK, and just keeps on giving for hours on end. In fact, multiple events occured in sucession that year, as several low pressure systems became stuck against the massive block of cold continental air.

That's the sort of thing that leads to people complaining even just a few years after a month like December 2012 - sure, that was amazingly cold, record breakingly so in places, but the snow amounts, while noteworthy, were still far short of what can potentially be witnessed in the UK.

It's a funny game really, as such events are very disruptive and do far more harm than good - but as an extreme weather enthusiast it's all about recognising that if an event happens, it does so regardless of what you think about it, so you might as well enjoy what aspects of it you can

The silly season is here! - https://www.facebook.com/WeatherWatchUK/posts/234804403340214

Might be right for once

I hope so

I assume you were talking about the newspaper report and not my page

Indeed. We had great snow in March with deep drifts lasting until April, as deep as my knees. I recall going to my local park on the day after and seeing snow blowing off the fields and onto the road that runs through it, with snow slowly accumulating on the road and cars slowing down and stopping due to reduced visiblity. This was in late March with sunny skies and temps of only 1C! Exceptional. The day before, during hte actual snowfall, we had an ice day. And we had another ice day on the 11th with frequent powdery snow showers. I'll remember that month for a long time.

However, I know that just a few miles east in the Vale of York and they got hardly anything at all compared to here. Elevation was crucial last winter as most events were marginal, so here, at 86m, we got lots of snow, but places in the Vale of York would often get wet snow that didn't settle or only settled a little bit.

of course

I was sort of hoping your page is always right

Considering the frequency of easterlies last winter, this part of Kent as a whole escaped relatively lightly indeed, compaed to how it has been completely buried with a less prolonged easterly influence in years gone by.

So I wouldn't mind seeing a severe snow event this time around, although with a very early Spring to follow too!

FWIW, this morning's CFS model continues to output cold signals for this winter. Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar are all forecast to be below average, with March perhaps the coolest of them all.