Thanks Martin....

 

Perhaps some higher temperatures for after Wednesday next week....

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ECM 32 has apparently picked up on signal for more settled end to August.

@MattHugo81: Definitely some signs/signals for a possible pressure rise around and beyond the 20th/21st onwards. Somewhat unexpected too.

@MattHugo81: Overnight EC32 update has undergone a major shift as well since Tue update, with a signal for higher pressure/settled conditions now.

With all the usual caveats about how much faith to put in that as is always the case with any longer term output (ECM 32 or indeed GFS or ECM beyond seven days).

That's the end of our settled end to August then. Whatever he posts about that model the opposite seems to happen. It's been horrendous.

Still looking very usable for southern areas over the next week. UKMO probably the nicest this morning with much wider decent conditions next week.

That's a bit unfair to be honest. If I remember the EC32 model was suggesting more unsettled weather in the first half of August than we had in July and that seems about right? Wouldn't assume it is going to right, wouldn't ignore it either.

It was suggesting unsettled weather a week out constantly from before the heatwave startered! It was wrong over and over again! Obviously it was going to be right eventually. It was dreadful! 🤣

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ECM 32 has apparently picked up on signal for more settled end to August.

@MattHugo81: Definitely some signs/signals for a possible pressure rise around and beyond the 20th/21st onwards. Somewhat unexpected too.

@MattHugo81: Overnight EC32 update has undergone a major shift as well since Tue update, with a signal for higher pressure/settled conditions now.

With all the usual caveats about how much faith to put in that as is always the case with any longer term output (ECM 32 or indeed GFS or ECM beyond seven days).

That's the end of our settled end to August then. Whatever he posts about that model the opposite seems to happen. It's been horrendous.

Still looking very usable for southern areas over the next week. UKMO probably the nicest this morning with much wider decent conditions next week.

That's a bit unfair to be honest. If I remember the EC32 model was suggesting more unsettled weather in the first half of August than we had in July and that seems about right? Wouldn't assume it is going to right, wouldn't ignore it either.

It was suggesting unsettled weather a week out constantly from before the heatwave startered! It was wrong over and over again! Obviously it was going to be right eventually. It was dreadful!

 

Matty, I  have looked at the EC 32 day consistently since the start of summer. From mid-June it began to show a much increased chance of high pressure across or to the north and east of the UK during July....and by the last week of June this had firmed up to stable, largely fine, dry and anticyclonic spells lasting for most of the month. By mid-July it had successfully picked up the more unsettled last week or so and has consistently been showing a more cyclonic changeable pattern for August.

The change which Matt Hugo referes to on the Thursday update actually shows high pressure elongated west to east to the noth of the British Isles. Taken at face value, (at least what Im looking at) this would suggest the finest, most settled weather to the north and the risk of some cyclonic influcence to the south - perhaps a thundey low across southern UK??  (though this is not actually depicted).

A one off change like we've seen yesterday - is not something we should jump to right away (one of the golden rules of weather forecasting)- but if the theme is maintained then perhaps we can begin to take it more seriously on Monday.  

I would say I find your ascersion that the EC 32 as horrendous a bit harsh - I do find over a long period of monitoring that it can quite often pick up the 'general' circulation patterns around 75% to 80%  of the time.  What people make the mistake of doing is trying to tie a broadscale mean flow forecast into a nailed on synoptic pattern or worse still a weather forecast which of course is at best silly.

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So near, yet so far, this morning. The jet energy wouldn't have to be much less for us to see more of a ridge of high pressure moving through - I'm hoping that the models tone the jet down at least a little, otherwise it will be nearly the end of the month before a ridge through the UK and Europe manages to hold it's ground.

As much as the useable weather will satisfy many of the public, I can't help but yearn for something more interesting, preferably in the form of heat and storms ... despite everything I still haven't seen a proper thunderstorm this year, last one was a brief affair in March 2011 in Portsmouth

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

The ECM looking alittle plummy if briefly.

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20 uppers not far away from the south all in the distance of f1 but something to keep an eye on.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130809/06/312/h850t850eu.png

 

 

 

 

20 uppers not far away from the south all in the distance of f1 but something to keep an eye on.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130809/06/312/h850t850eu.png

 

 

The warmth gets blown east quite rapidly but the run still ends on a settled note for the southern half.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.png

That sort of set-up would do me for the start of my Cornish hols... not hugely warm but fairly dry and bright.

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Hi all,

Here's today video update;

August/September Look-Ahead + Jan 2014 Sneak Peak;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

All speculation of course.

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Hi all,

Here's today video update;

August/September Look-Ahead + Jan 2014 Sneak Peak;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

All speculation of course.

Many thanks Gavin. Could be a cool and wet September if CFS is right!

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Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Friday August 9th 2013.

The General Situation. The Westerly flow of winds across the UK will continue for the foreseeable future. All areas will see spells of dry and bright weather but occasional troughs flowing East in the flow will bring some rain or showers at times, these chiefly but not exclusively in the North. Towards the middle of next week Southern areas could see things warm up a little as winds back towards the SW while the North-westerlies early in the week will feel a little cool in the North.

GFS then shows little change as we move into next weekend though the North may encounter a more noticeable strong breeze and heavy rain as a deeper Low passes to the North. By the start of week 2 and for the remainder of the run the weather remains benign with slack pressure gradients over the UK resulting in plenty of dry, bright and warm weather but with a tendency towards thundery showers increasing in the South as we close out the run.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show the operational as a warm outlier for almost two thirds of the run unfortunately, with most members going for rather more average August conditions with bright spells and a little rain now and again as always more so in the North where the operational wasn't an outlier.

The Jet Stream shows a West to East flow across the British Isles over the next week before it shows a much lighter and more confused, irregular pattern as we move through week 2.

UKMO tonight continues to show High pressure albeit quite weak down to the SE of the UK with light winds and fair conditions over the UK. It is conceivable for a few showers to break out here and there especially in the north but no major rain events look likely.

GEM tonight becomes much less settled in it's closing stages with Low pressure to the North of Scotland in control of all our weather by then with Westerly winds and rain or showers across all areas in temperatures held at no better than average values.

NAVGEM is much more sedate with High pressure nevere far enough away from the South to allow any meaningful rainfall events to occur down here over the next week. The north in a fresher Westerly breeze at times are more prone to see at least some rainfall with regularity but no excessive amounts look likely here either.

ECM tonight shows a front crossing East next Friday with some showery rain for all before the familiar pattern it has shown all week develops with Westerly winds and showers in places, chiefly in the North while Southern Britain while not entirely excluded from the risk of rain is much more likely to see lengthy dry spells than wet. Temperatures overall will be close to average though it could become quite warm for a time in the South from midweek.

In Summary there is little difference to report from previous output with quiet and benign conditions continuing to dominate the UK weather for the forseeable future.  There will be subtle differences from place to place and day to day but overall most places will see more dry weather than wet, certainly in the South when temperatures could rise to rather warm levels at times. Winds will maintain a westerly bias over the period and nothing overly strong is likely. 

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GFS, ECM and UKMO have all upgraded the ridge for Wed + Thu next week, so that's something to smile about

Longer term, there's a definate signal for areas of HP to keep transferring eastward from the Atlantic and on through Europe. If the Atlantic is too mighty and flattens the ridges quickly, such as ECM shows, then the HP won't be able to move much heat in our direction or indeed any at all.

However, if the Atlantic is toned down at all, then we might get a brief taste of the continental heat. If we don't see that next week, there are indications that a stronger opportunity could come our way for the week after. In other words, it does seem to me that something's stirring, but the shape it takes remains an unknown at the moment.

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Thanks, Martin.

 

I think I'd put in an early watching brief with more emphasis on thundery weather in England  for GFS' prediction around 300 hours - deep in FI, true, and the other models don't seem to be going that way; but GFS has been quite consistent about the (interesting) synoptics at about that time for the last few runs.

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Thanks Martin

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Friday August 9th 2013.

The General Situation. The Westerly flow of winds across the UK will continue for the foreseeable future. All areas will see spells of dry and bright weather but occasional troughs flowing East in the flow will bring some rain or showers at times, these chiefly but not exclusively in the North. Towards the middle of next week Southern areas could see things warm up a little as winds back towards the SW while the North-westerlies early in the week will feel a little cool in the North.

GFS then shows little change as we move into next weekend though the North may encounter a more noticeable strong breeze and heavy rain as a deeper Low passes to the North. By the start of week 2 and for the remainder of the run the weather remains benign with slack pressure gradients over the UK resulting in plenty of dry, bright and warm weather but with a tendency towards thundery showers increasing in the South as we close out the run.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show the operational as a warm outlier for almost two thirds of the run unfortunately, with most members going for rather more average August conditions with bright spells and a little rain now and again as always more so in the North where the operational wasn't an outlier.

The Jet Stream shows a West to East flow across the British Isles over the next week before it shows a much lighter and more confused, irregular pattern as we move through week 2.

UKMO tonight continues to show High pressure albeit quite weak down to the SE of the UK with light winds and fair conditions over the UK. It is conceivable for a few showers to break out here and there especially in the north but no major rain events look likely.

GEM tonight becomes much less settled in it's closing stages with Low pressure to the North of Scotland in control of all our weather by then with Westerly winds and rain or showers across all areas in temperatures held at no better than average values.

NAVGEM is much more sedate with High pressure nevere far enough away from the South to allow any meaningful rainfall events to occur down here over the next week. The north in a fresher Westerly breeze at times are more prone to see at least some rainfall with regularity but no excessive amounts look likely here either.

ECM tonight shows a front crossing East next Friday with some showery rain for all before the familiar pattern it has shown all week develops with Westerly winds and showers in places, chiefly in the North while Southern Britain while not entirely excluded from the risk of rain is much more likely to see lengthy dry spells than wet. Temperatures overall will be close to average though it could become quite warm for a time in the South from midweek.

In Summary there is little difference to report from previous output with quiet and benign conditions continuing to dominate the UK weather for the forseeable future.  There will be subtle differences from place to place and day to day but overall most places will see more dry weather than wet, certainly in the South when temperatures could rise to rather warm levels at times. Winds will maintain a westerly bias over the period and nothing overly strong is likely. 

 lovely 12z gfs mean >t120 best its been for a while...... nice

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html

Funny to think its 'that' anniversary tomorrow. 10 years!! ...almost feels autumnal the last few days.

Will we see another burst of continental heat this year? I for one hope September stays mild. GFS could be hinting at this in the long term.

Good morning. here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday August 10th 2013.

The General Situation. The general theme this morning remains unchanged. The pattern can be split into two weeks this morning with the coming week being characterized by the weather type we've experienced for some days now and that is benign and quiet conditions over all with a mix of broken cloud and sunny spells with scattered showers or outbreaks of rain passing through at times largely in the North but a little too in the South at times. Winds will remain between SW and NW all this week and while temperatures may be quite fresh and cool through the opening days of the week it will feel warmer in the South from midweek as winds back more SW. It's as we get to the weekend the models diverge in how much the Atlantic depressions exert their influence further into the UK than recently.

GFS shows only a a marginal downturn as a cold front crosses East bringing some moderate rain to all areas. It isn't long afterwards though before the pattern resets with the North seeing occasional rain while the South returns to dry and bright weather in association with High pressure to the South. However, later in the run following a few dry and bright days for all Low pressure does manifest itself over the UK with rain at times for all in cyclonic winds and temperatures close to average and maybe a little below by the end of the run as winds turn into the North.

The GFS Ensembles maintain normal conditions at the surface for the coming two weeks. There will no doubt be some warmer days scattered about through the period but no sustained heat pattern is likely. Rainfall remains a rare commodity in the SE as all the action towards this takes place towards the North though even here some drier interludes are likely. Late in the run there are signs that a mid Atlantic High may form breaking down the West flow and bringing a more anticyclonic period though with a cool North feed innitially.

The Jet Stream maintains it's UK transit over the coming week before late in the period it migrates North towards Iceland in Week 2 as the aforementioned mid Atlantic high forms.

UKMO today closes it's run with High pressure moving away from the SE with a SW flow with troughs making slow inroads SE over the UK. The effects of these will still be minimal in the SE with the rain mostly falling over Northern and Western parts in relatively warm conditions.

GEM today shows a much more mobile pattern developing next weekend and into the following week with a couple of depressions moving into the UK from the West delivering rain and fresh winds across all areas with temperatures maintaining a normal stance for mid August.

NAVGEM shows Low pressure crossing to the North next weekend with enough oomph to spread wind and some rain right down into Southern Britain for a time with fresh and cool Westerly winds for all.

ECM this morning also steers Low pressure east close to Northern Britain with troughs swinging East in the fresh Westerly flow delivering some appreciable rain for all and followed by a mix of sunshine and showers in cool NW winds to start the new week.

In Summary today the weather remains benign and largely dry over the South for another week and possibly longer. The word 'possibly' is used deliberately as there is plenty of evidence this morning of rather more unsettled and breezy weather extending right down to Southern Britain next weekend with rain at times as Low pressure moves down closer to Northern Scotland. However, there is also some signs albeit deep in la la land that things may settle down again as the jet shifts North and a mid Atlantic High develops as per GFS. I got the opinion that this was also indicated in yesterdays mid term UKMO outlook for late in the month so we will have to see if that trend develops. Overall though the pattern remains quite benign still with many places seeing a lot of useable weather and while there is little evidence of anything fine and hot like were seeing in July there remains little reason to be pessimistic with just a little summer rain to water the gardens in among plenty of dry and bright weather. 

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Thanks Martin..

 

All seems well with the weather for the time of year.

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Thanks Martin..

 

All seems well with the weather for the time of year.

Yep, certainly been a very useable spell of weather since we lost the proper heat. Not much rain, sunny spells and pleasantly warm. Looks like continuing for a while.

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Happy with the weather so far, week looks for here, me and the boy are out numbered by 5 of the female variety

Decent set of charts

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Really buzzing in here I see

Once again this evening's runs are looking more appealing than the morning runs. It's getting a bit confusing really... but overall this jerky walk does seem to be producing a slight improvement in the outlook, with 22-25°C commonplace across the SE'rn third from Tuesday 13th through to and including Saturday 17th

It's looking less satisfying further NW, but not too bad for the middle third at least.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

Friday currently sees the greatest potential in terms of higher temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.gif

While GFS keeps some energy back to form a shortwave to the SW that swings on through us on Sunday, ECM gives all of the energy to the main trough, resulting in a windy day for most, but still potentially on the warm side in the far south, where frontal systems would probably be rather unimpressive affairs.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

A pleasant Sunday here to contradict GFS' rainy one. This ECM run looks more promising than the 00z, although there's still rather a lot of energy to the north of us.

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