Good morning folks. Here is the morning viewpoint from me on the latest outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday August 9th 2013.
The General Situation. In view that the models all look rather benign in their prospects over the next couple of weeks I will lump this morning's report into Week 1 and Week 2.
Week 1. All models show a basic pattern of Westerly winds across the UK for the whole of the coming week. The winds will veer NW on occasion as weak troughs cross East at times in the flow bringing occasional rain or showers but away from the North amounts will generally be small. There will be some fine and bright weather for all at times but these will be more lengthy over Southern Britain as High pressure lies just to the South for much of the time. Temperatures will never be excitingly high but it will feel quite warm at times in the South under any sustained brightness while the NW will feel rather cooler in the wind and cloud which will feed in from off the Atlantic throughout.
The GFS Ensembles show considerable spread between the members beyond the end of next week with some warm and sunny options shown with an overall mean rising above average in Southern Britain late in the week. The Ensemble synoptic charts indicate that an option favouring High pressure moving across the UK from the SW is most likely in 10 days or so.
The Jet Stream pattern does indeed support this evolution as after the next week of it continuing to bump into the UK from the West it rises further north towards Iceland late next week and more especially beyond.
Week 2. UKMO closes it's run with High pressure just to the SE of the UK with a warm SW flow over the UK. Southern and Eastern areas would stay dry and fine with some warm sunny spells inland while Northern and Western areas would see more cloud and maybe a little rain in the far NW. With a cold front shown out to the West this could spill rain into the north and west more generally in the day that follows the end of the run.
GEM too shows a SW flow but somewhat stronger than UKMO with cloud and light rain and drizzle at times in the North while the South and East maintain the driest and brightest weather though even here a few short cloudier spells could give a shower or the odd spot of rain and drizzle as decaying fronts pass by.
NAVGEM closes it's output with a West or SW flow covering the UK with the South seeing the best of the dry and bright weather between the cloudy damp conditions felt more frequently over Northern regions. Temperatures would be close to the seasonal average but maybe a little above at times in the SE.
ECM as has been the case for many runs now remains the most progressive in it's latter stages with a change to more unsettled weather spreading to all parts by next weekend with rain or showers for all in average temperatures and Westerly breezes.
In Summary there is little excitement in the weather to promote in the next few weeks. It looks like the UK will remain in a broad Westerly pattern with Low pressure to the North and High pressure close to the South at times. As always in these situations the strongest breezes along with the most cloud cover and rain will be in the North and West with very average temperatures here. In the South there is a much greater chance of missing most if not all of the rain with variable cloud cover, some sunny intervals and temperatures for the most part in the low 20's most days. ECM does remain the most progressive longer term model this morning continuing to suggest the South too could have some useful rain by next weekend.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset