In other words boring.

No late heatwaves or storms!

not sure about that duane. if the week 2 anolmoly to our east does establish itself, then there are plenty of options for temps to rise with possible southerly thundery drift ensuing thereafter.

last third of august currently looks like being very decent indeed.

 

I hope so as I have a couple of days off work either side of the Bank Holiday.

And the Bournemouth Air Festival at the end of the month too, don't want that getting wrecked by persistent low cloud again!

Good evening folks. Here is how I see the noon runs from today's outputs from the big 5 for today Sunday August 11th 2013.

The General Situation. There is little change on the coming week's output from this morning with the NW flow with showers in the North continuing for another couple of days before a ridge crossing from the West backs winds off towards the SW with a warm front hard on it's heels bringing a little rain along with warmer and more humid air around midweek. The South and East then see 24-48hrs of fine and warm weather with high humidity and sunny spells, especially in the SE in a gentle SW wind. The North would more likely stay more cloudy and cooler with occasional rain. On Friday a cold front crosses East and brings clearer, fresher and cooler air across all parts by the end of the day. Saturday then sees a more vigorous Atlantic Low develop up to the NW with increasing SW winds and rain spilling East across all areas at some point through the day followed by a fresh and breezy Sunday with sunshine and showers especially in the North and West following the cold front East across the UK.

GFS then moves into Week 2 with High pressure building from the SW which then in one shape or another dominates the weather over the UK for the rest of the run. It would become dry for all away from the far NW with increasing amounts of sunshine day by day. Temperatures would be on the rise too , becoming very warm late in the run with a SW to NE axis of High pressure across Britain giving rise to the potential for a sustained period of fine and settled weather again, especially towards the South.

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a trend towards rising temperatures through the second half of the run as High pressure looks like taking a more dominant role in the UK later in the output. Rainfall amounts are shown to be minimal in the South and decreasing in quantity in the North too later.

The Jet Stream continues to be shown blowing across the Atlantic and the UK in the next week before it trends more towards the North as High pressure continues to be projected closer to the UK.

UKMO tonight at the close of it's run has a deep Low to the South of Iceland at noon next Saturday with a fresh and blustery SW flow over the UK. Rain would most likely be clearing the East with squally showers following with hail and thunder possible. The South and West Coasts would probably miss most of the showers again during the daytime with inland convergence zones likely to be affected the most.

GEM tonight too has a deep Low scooting East to the North of Scotland with a spell of wind and rain followed by showers for all before pressure builds strongly from the SW at the start of the new week with fine and settled weather gradually developing NE across the UK with sunny spells and much lighter winds and warmer temperatures.

NAVGEM shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK next weekend as the transit East  of a Low to the North of the UK takes place. There would be sunshine and showers with a slow moderation of wind and showers to start the new week.

ECM tonight shows some appreciable rain and showers next weekend for many before a rise in pressure from the SW early in the new week settles the UK into a spell of warmer and sunnier weather, first in the SW then on to other Southern areas by midweek.

In Summary tonight we have some uniformity between the models on the most likely course of events for the next few weeks. After this weeks changeable weather well documented already the weekend looks likely to become unsettled and windy for a time with rain and showers for all as a deep Low moves East across the North of Scotland. Following behind there is good support for a strong build of High pressure from the SW taking control of the weather with a more than reasonable chance of fine, settled and warm weather returning to many areas by the middle of next week. ECM does not develop the High as much as I would of liked tonight but the idea is still there and as shown would be OK for the South.

This evenings models have shifted about again... figuring out how far north or south next weekend's trough will track is more bother than it's worth

ECM seems to be having the most violent swings, from a track right through the UK to a track closer to Iceland.

Reasurringly, a ridge of high pressure still builds in behind on the ECM run. Even GEM, which is very strong with the jet energy, brings one in.

Before all that, this coming week remains fairly similar in appearance to what it did this morning - best in the SE (22-25°C widely), worst in the far NW (mid teens, high teens in drier spells - with the far NE tending to fare better, seeing low 20's on some days and less rain generally).

hmmm ecm 12z looks maybe a more unsettled outliner if u are quick u can c that from the 0z mean

depends on location and amount of energy

also quite clear at 500 between big 2 with energy and model difference.

 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

looks very dry in the south

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

lovely run on the mean later on

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

what a difference a few weeks makes

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif

looks stormy for the north if gm came off hope not

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

looks stormy for the north if gm came off hope not

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

Still a nice end to the month showing there though.

if u run that mean thats lovely http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html

 

And the Bournemouth Air Festival at the end of the month too, don't want that getting wrecked by persistent low cloud again!

And a Mega car boot sales on BH, there none today but next one next Sunday and looking good from the latest GFS runs.  A decent week ahead with temps vary from low 20's early to mid 20's before returning to low 20's by the weekend but all dry and average weather wise.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from the big 5 for today Monday August 12th 2013.

All models continue to programme a changeable week of weather to come with the cool NW flow of winds currently covering all areas around High pressure to the SW lasting a few more days. Over tomorrow and Wednesday a couple of warm fronts will trundle across the UK from the SW raising temperatures and humidity levels for all as well as delivering some outbreaks of rain and drizzle as they pass. Following on behind Southern and Eastern areas will see things warm up with humidity levels making things feel very warm as the sun breaks through. Some thundery showers ill break out late in the week as a cold front moves erratically SE across the UK introducing fresher air in time for the weekend.

GFS then sweeps another front East over the weekend with a spell of wind and rain and fresher air to all followed by Westerly winds, sun snd showers for a time. High pressure then builds across the UK over the following week with some fine and warm weather developing everywhere for a time. Towards the end of the run the top and tail of the nation may be affected by somewhat less settled weather with some thundery showers possible in the South. At the very end of the run a strong Atlantic anticyclone sets up shop West of the UK with fine and settled weather in a cool Northerly wind likely.

The GFS Ensembles show changeable if often rather warm conditions over the UK over the next two weeks. There will be some cooler spells too with rainfall rather small in quantity overall. The operational was a warm outlier for a time through it's warmer phase in the South while there remains quite a spread in the pack in Week 2.

The Jet stream is shown to continue to blow across the UK for the next week or so before a much more confused and diffuse pattern develops thereafter.

UKMO today closes it's run with a depression to the north of the UK with Westerly winds for all sweeping a trough East on Sunday with a spell of rain followed by showers for all.

GEM shows the trough much further North next Sunday still with some rain for the North and West before High pressure builds strongly over Southern Britain early next week with fine, warm and humid weather developing for much of Southern Britain at least.

NAVGEM is much the same as GEM with a NW flow following the exiting depression early next week as high pressure builds in from the SW.

ECM shows a similar evolution though it shows a spoiler Low from the Atlantic halt the rising pressure and bring a spell of showery rain across the UK midweek which looks like lasting later into the week 2 as a cool pool lies just to the West transferring East from midweek.

In Summary the weather still looks set to improve next week behind a spell of breezy and probably wet conditions at some point over the weekend. It will be warm at times too, notably in the SE later this week and possibly more generally next week. There is as always complications though and some models hold High pressure too far South to influence the North much while ECM throws a spanner in the works which develops a spoiler Low from off the Atlantic to maintain a changeable theme going well into the middle and possibly the end of next week.

Thank you Martin..

A pretty mixed outlook really with a bit of everything apart from something hot that is.

A long way off but scorchio

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013081206/gfs-0-276.png?6?6

Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

An Early Polar Vortex Is Forming

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Weekend looking quite unsettled, may get some high pressure next week.

Hi all,

Here's todays video update;

An Early Polar Vortex Is Forming

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Weekend looking quite unsettled, may get some high pressure next week.

To be destroyed come winter

Some peachy charts around for later this month 👍

Doesn't look to bad in the meantime either bar the coming weekend.

The 12z ECM shows some particularly low heights canada & greenland for this time of the year, with the jet alligning NW SE & sometimes W E along the atlantic, where as the GFS is hoping to reallign the flow SW NE-

I did put the summer is over flag up the other day, maybe a bit premature for some, & of course that doesnt preclude a chance of some hot sunny weather, however it will interesting to see what actually happens in the next 4-6 weeks as the lights begin to go out on another summer....

S