squish
04 December 2017 22:09:21
18z has the weekend slider missing the UK to the SW.....stays cold, but largely dry.
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
glenogle
04 December 2017 22:11:59

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


18z has shifted the first slider west, as is always possible, and it misses almost completely.



Presumably that's good from a longevity of cold point of view?


UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
SEMerc
04 December 2017 22:12:41

We shall see but I think the second (and likely more potent) slider will hit the UK.

Gandalf The White
04 December 2017 22:13:34

The second slider appears to be at a slightly more favourable angle to produce something wintry.



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Gandalf The White
04 December 2017 22:15:56

There we go, an upgrade on the 12



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Rob K
04 December 2017 22:16:07

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


18z has shifted the first slider west, as is always possible, and it misses almost completely.



the second looks ok though. 


 


Maybe the "halfway house" between ECM and GFS would hit the jackpot!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Joe Bloggs
04 December 2017 22:22:25

Evening all 😊


My favourite chart of the day. And it’s only at T+78! 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_78_43.png


 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gooner
04 December 2017 22:25:57

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Sadly you have to back ECM over GFS in these situations


Why


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


johncs2016
04 December 2017 22:28:50

Originally Posted by: pdiddy 


 


Not if it's only affecting Scotland... If it might get windy in Englandshire, then a named storm is likely


FWIW I'm still hopeful of the Russian/Scandi high making an appearance.  Hints have been modeled in FI and if we continue see lower heights in to Europe I believe this is a possibility.



Technically speaking though, a weather system will be classed as a named storm if there is at least an amber warning issued for that by the Met Office in the UK, or at least an orange warning issued for that in the Irish Republic issued by Met Eirann with that name being officially designated by whichever of those two bodies was the first to give out such warnings.


If the Met Office are doing their job properly, they are supposed to cover the whole of the UK and not just England. This means that if they are the ones who issue those warnings (and thus give such a system its name), this should therefore by rights, result in that system then being classed as a named storm even if these warnings only affect a small part of Scotland and nowhere else in the UK due to the fact that Scotland is itself, part of the UK and therefore, part of the area which is covered by the UK Met Office.


That is why if there is a forecast of possible storm force northerlies in parts of Scotland towards the end of this week from this particular weather system which could therefore potentially result in an amber warning there, that has to then lead to the possibility of that system then being officially named as Storm Caroline which is the next name on that list after all.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
roger63
04 December 2017 22:29:56

Originally Posted by: squish 

18z has the weekend slider missing the UK to the SW.....stays cold, but largely dry.


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=96&carte=2000


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=120&carte=2000


Faxes out to 120h look pretty dry for most.

Rob K
04 December 2017 22:30:58
GFS 18Z is impressively consistent with the 12Z out to 192hrs. Only minor changes but the broad pattern is near identical. The third low might be a bit more progressive as there are lower heights coming out of Canada.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
04 December 2017 22:36:49

Originally Posted by: squish 

18z has the weekend slider missing the UK to the SW.....stays cold, but largely dry.


Very early days yet. The weekend "slider" is just starting to come into view on the high res models.


Here it is on the ICON 18z T120 chart



Here is GFS 18z at the same time - completely different - much further south. As ever lots more runs needed. The track of this won't be clear until we get inside T48.


fairweather
04 December 2017 22:44:07

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Why



Because it is currently the milder? I would back the GFS if it was the milder. Just because historically the milder solution has been more common in the last few years. No reason to say it will be this time and all the solutions are cold but that's just the way it's been so many times before. But frankly and based on the facts, either solution is possible and different people's speculation won't make one more likely than the other.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
White Meadows
04 December 2017 22:44:56
A true wintry slider slips up the English Channel.
With many corrections and incorrections to be made in the next 144 hours, history teaches us the whole thing will adjust north over time to be a wet affair for most away from northern hills. Hope I’m wrong.
Gooner
04 December 2017 22:50:53

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 

A true wintry slider slips up the English Channel.
With many corrections and incorrections to be made in the next 144 hours, history teaches us the whole thing will adjust north over time to be a wet affair for most away from northern hills. Hope I’m wrong.


Not how the Beeb see it


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


nsrobins
04 December 2017 22:53:05
I wonder where the later stages of the 18Z will sit in the ensembles? 😂😉
I also wonder why Ian hasn’t commented on it yet?
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
White Meadows
04 December 2017 22:59:28

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I wonder where the later stages of the 18Z will sit in the ensembles? 😂😉
I also wonder why Ian hasn’t commented on it yet?

Someone said he’s eating omelette tonight.

tallyho_83
04 December 2017 23:05:52

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I wonder where the later stages of the 18Z will sit in the ensembles? 😂😉
I also wonder why Ian hasn’t commented on it yet?


 


I see a return to zonal end of 18z GFS. After that start of an easterly on the 12z run. Will see!


Plenty of wintry/snowy etc weather between now and then which is good. - So not too concerned yet.


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
04 December 2017 23:07:22


 


Quite a flip in the space of a few days!


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Rob K
04 December 2017 23:07:34
The latter stages of the 18Z GFS shows what can happen if that big chunk of PV in Canada heads too far out way. Hello jet, goodbye any hope of a seasonal Christmas! There have been plenty of mild options in the latter stages of the ensembles so I suppose it's no surprise one came out as the op run this evening.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
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