One thing to bear in mind with the models' snow fields, which always look more exciting than reality. The reason is they show any chance of snow - from 100% (which would be pure snow) to 1% (which would be the odd flake in the rain). Much of what you see on today's ECM, over England at least, is actually sleet rather than pure snow - similarly with GFS, there's a lot of sleet (or mixed rain and snow, to use the US term) as opposed to "proper" snow.

The WRF model as linked by Rob above shows this well. Switch it to precip type and look at all the rain!

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The WRF model as linked by Rob above shows this well. Switch it to precip type and look at all the rain!

Good point although I suspect the WRF might be erring too much the other way, given that it also shows rain in northern Scotland away from the high ground, even when the -10C isotherm makes landfall!

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Graupal and snow showers are pretty much a given now for Friday I would think except maybe on north facing SW coasts. I’d be surprised if most places didn’t see at least a flurry at some point between Friday am and Sat pm - some places a lot more.
Sunday on the other hand is far from sorted 😉

An interesting southerly track for a low, but the difference of even dozens of miles for that track will make a big difference to people's experience of the event. I don't see lowland snow accumulating to the north of it as a certainty, either, it's not that cold.

Medium and longer term, the models are reluctant to show high pressure to our north and east, so any prolonged cold spell seems unlikely, even if the bookies have cut odds on a white Christmas. Just a rather unconvincing mid to north Atlantic ridge on ECM at T+240, a long way off.

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Living in west Cornwall cold rain is a given 9 times out of 10. I like winters to be wintery and miss the Derbyshire Peak District where I came from at this time of year...
I've read through the threads and my take seems to be that forecast mild weather rarely changes to cold.. Forecast cold weather rarely stays as cold as forecast.

The GFS seem to show a mild outcome from 17th onwards I'd not be surprised if that outcome happened...😬

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Well, looking at the 00Z charts from GFS and ECM this morning, I would punt on the weather being seasonal, rather than stellar  - either too dry or on the wrong side of marginal for lying snow. One of the issues (which others have alluded to) is the lack of a deep cold pool to tap into - so even when the synoptics look perfect, the uppers are not quite cold enough for lowland snow.

The hills and mountains in Scotland, Wales and northern England, should get something though and the Staffordshire moorlands should also be favoured.

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I'm not sure a northerly could or often has delivered below 510dam air in early December?

I do concur though for many it may be not quite cold enough or too dry (and I include my own location in that summary).

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I'm not sure a northerly could or often has delivered below 510dam air in early December?

I do concur though for many it may be not quite cold enough or too dry (and I include my own location in that summary).

On the other hand, it is a pleasant change to just get something seasonal (provided it is not just relentless cold rain, which it does not look like being).

 

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Skipping through the output listening to England’s fightback in Adelaide.
Actually the track of Sunday’s slider is remarkably different between the big three, making a huge difference in the conditions any particular location can expect. Fascinating stuff.

 

I’m not sure what makes more nervous at the moment, waking up and checking the cricket score or waking and checking the models...

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I think the UKMO will be nearer the mark at this timescale, as for the negativity towards the ECM outcome I don’t get it it looks the best of all three for longer term prospects. Still what I do know.

Fascinating output this morning, with the track of Sunday's low making a massive difference in the weather across the UK.

If ECM wins out, we'll see a 60-hour cold spell followed by widespread wind and rain.

GFS, on the other hand, would give a mixture of snow and rain in the south, followed by a repeat a couple of days later.

The MetO run sits squarely in the middle.

I think that the key issue here is whether heights rise to the north of the projected track of the LP predicted for Sunday.  ECM doesn’t show any and it has the Azores high slightly further north: the inevitable effect is the LP doesn’t really slide at all. GFS has so little energy in the first slider that it misses to the west and fizzles.  As you say UKMO is in the middle.

Until the models work out whether there’s any WAA ahead of the potential LP/slider they won’t know the track. Assuming it is a slider then the nothing/snow/rain boundaries won’t be resolved until very much closer to the (any) event.

Beyond that it looks like at least cool to cold but I think this weekend’s developments are key in determining the mid-term prospects for extended cold v something more messy.

Either way it’s fascinating.

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Phew!

I thought it was just me, I like the ECM and would take that 

Yes, a very good ECM op run IMO if it's snow one is wanting to see.

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I suspect warnings will be forthcoming after the 6z runs (Meto and ECM we don't see). Caroline will probably be named later today

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06Z GFS has the low on Sunday much further north, a big shift towards the ECM on this run. Looks potentially very snowy for the Midlands and northwards, on higher ground.

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Slight shift in the LP? or looks like SW of UK/Wales and IRELAND goes back to a having NW wind direction come Saturday!? Cold northerly doesn't reach us until Thursday night - thus one day of a northerly and wintry showers if we get any and that's Friday!? Looks pretty poor for frost as well. Thankfully after this one day event it looks like there could be more to come.

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Huge upgrade for snow up north!!  Marginal for the Chilts but v. interesting times.

This Azores HP is the problem is it not? 

 

Nice to see a proper split PV

 

 

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Slight shift in the LP? or looks like SW of UK/Wales and IRELAND goes back to a having NW wind direction come Saturday!? Cold northerly doesn't reach us until Thursday night - thus one day of a northerly and wintry showers if we get any and that's Friday!? Looks pretty poor for frost as well. Thankfully after this one day event it looks like there could be more to come.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=72&carte=2000

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=84&carte=2000

The latest METO faxes suggest suggest some enhanced shower activity partic for north Scotalnd

Seems to be rather a shortage of cold air around on this GFS run. Looks pretty good for high ground in the north. Also signs of renewed ridging as shown on ECM.

 

Edit: cracking easterly in FI.... for Italy 

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Seems to be rather a shortage of cold air around on this GFS run. Looks pretty good for high ground in the north. Also signs of renewed ridging as shown on ECM.

Agree re shortage cold air-neither the Sunday slider or the Wednesday one 206h seem to have cold enough uppers -the coldest uppers being Friday/Sat this weekend.

Pretty uninspiring run really, although we end up with a UK high and lower heights over the Med/SE Europe which is not a bad pattern really, at least more promising than the Euroslug of yore. With my optimistic hat on I'd say it's setting up for a Scandi high :)

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