It's looking quite promising if you're hoping for cold weather in the run up to Christmas. Onwards with the discussion...

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Some impressively low 500-1000hPa thicknesses for some northern parts on some of the charts this evening (including the ECM 12z run which is just emerging) http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png 

Likewise with the GFS which keeps the values sub 520dam here for 5 days or so! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EGPD/

Ediit: At a glance the 1z ECM run may not seem that special but it is rather cold indeed http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png 

Likewise with the GFS which keeps the values sub 520dam here for 5 days or so! http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EGPD/

EDit: At a glance the 1z ECM run may not seem that special but it is rather cold indeed http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_168_1.png 

Yes the very cold air aloft results in some very impressive CAPE values. Good potential for some convective snow provided other factors line up.

 

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ECM teases with disrupting trough:

 

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ECM teases with disrupting trough:

 

Yeh that's the holy grail. 

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ECM teases with disrupting trough:

 

My eyes are drawn to that potentially sharp trough developing out in the Atlantic. 

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Yeh that's the holy grail. 

That could be a new film: TWO members and the Holy Grail for cold!

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ECM teases with disrupting trough:

 

Should  help promote heights over Scandinavia as well I would’ve thought. Could be quite a snowy spell IMBY, which is all I’m interested in. 😁

ECM @216 potentially v snowy for some 

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ECM @216 potentially v snowy for some 

That's an extraordinary chart

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I had wondered if the 12z GFS op run was going to head this way...but it didn’t. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the next few runs did though.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2017120212/JN192-21.GIF?02-12

JMA shows the same 

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Think I’d be very happy with the ECM outcome, stunning doesn’t get near to describing it

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That's an extraordinary chart

Chart of the Year incredible

 

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Think I’d be very happy with the ECM outcome, stunning doesn’t get near to describing it

Is Ian Brown about???

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Is Ian Brown about???

I haven’t been on much today but the last post I read from him was saying something along the lines of the ECM is the one which has probably got the best handle of the situation. 

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That's an extraordinary chart

Can't ever recall the ECM producing something like this before in just over 11 years as a member here. This has surely to rival even the best model runs we had in Dec 2009, Jan 2010 and Dec 2010, IMHO.

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Although not drawing in any really cold air, the set-up the ECM achieves toward the end is very interesting. A large low in the Med, cold air established over the UK, arctic high in play to the north, and lows in the Atlantic with nowhere to go but undercut again.

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I haven’t been on much today but the last post I read from him was saying something along the lines of the ECM is the one which has probably got the best handle of the situation. 

As is the way all eyes now on the ECM ensemble charts.  Maybe the op will be well supported.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2017120212/JN192-21.GIF?02-12

JMA shows the same 

 

Stunning run as well from the JMA.  Phenomenal output tonight.  Have to say prefer ecm to even GFS 

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