That Ecm is a kick in the groin. Hopefully wrong. 

That Ecm is a kick in the groin. Hopefully wrong. 

Shaping up for another Northerly on ECM at 216 

 

No point putting tinsel on that turd. Horror show for coldies. Very much on its own though so hopefully for the bin.

SO anyone - What's a Murr Sausage? please? I know of A Bartlett?

Recall asking the very same thing last year! Still non the wiser. 

www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=336&mode=0&carte=0

This is a kind of Murr sausage, though usually skinnier. A meridonal pattern with the jet going over the top but still delivering cold to the UK

Back OT, ECM is poor, no way to spin it

 

Recall asking the very same thing last year! Still non the wiser. 

A narrow ridging of heights from SW to NE into Scandi that can result in a Scandi High.

 

Northwesterly gales and driving rain. Just a typical summer’s day! 

(Much lower wintry potential than the GFS option so far)

Yes I agree, and quite at odds with the GFS which as Brian says has trended a little colder this evening. Oh the joys of model watching!

Hopefully ECM can beef up the cold for us.

Quite odd just how different GFS and ECM are in terms of 850's from T72 where they're similar to T96 where they're not 

The knock on effect seems to be LPs coming through further North and more developed than on GFS with correspondingly warmer (and rainier) weather on the ground

Always worrying to see the best verifying model finding one of the warmer evolutions at relatively close range, hopefully it's a bit of an outlier and drifts back towards the GFS a bit. It does show I guess that whereas the GFS manages to do things favourably for deeper cold and more snow opportunities if you tweak things slightly it's chilly and wet rather than very chilly with some snow if people get lucky (in terms of slider lows).

 

 

No point putting tinsel on that turd. Horror show for coldies. Very much on its own though so hopefully for the bin.

 

Horror show

Your a laugh , it’s hardly a horror show

long fetch SWlies would fall into that category 

 

Horror show

 

Your a laugh , it’s hardly a horror show

 

long fetch SWlies would fall into that category 

Fairenongh but its cold rain all the way from day 6. Compared to ukmo and gfs its crap. Hopefully it's wrong.

 

A narrow ridging of heights from SW to NE into Scandi that can result in a Scandi High.

Cheers Arcus. Can see the logic behind the label, but it still gives me a laugh when I see it applied in a post. 

ECM at top end of its ensemble run, with a bit of a blip followed by return of downwards trend thereafter.
Martin

Yes clearly the Azores High and therefore the diving Low must be a good deal further SW on a number of the ECM members.

 

Yes clearly the Azores High and therefore the diving Low must be a good deal further SW on a number of the ECM members.

hello what's your thoughts on where this will end up? Scandi high or zonal?? 

When one of the big three sings off a different hymn sheet take note.

The first thing to note is the ensembles.

We are where we always are - looking for cross-model and ensemble support and focussing on the reliable timeframe. 

The ECM op develops that slider low significantly more than the mean of the ensemble suite and I suspect that is what takes the track further to the NE.  We're looking 6 days ahead here and this is too tricky to call with any precision at that range.

 

hello what's your thoughts on where this will end up? Scandi high or zonal?? 

I think a return to conventional zonality is unlikely until at least after mid-month, there is persitent Euro troughing and a disorganised PV/jet. I would not expect to see the possibility of a Scandi High until January. 

 

Recall asking the very same thing last year! Still non the wiser. 

I have asked before and heard it used back then but never got and answer or PM so I've asked again but thanks for your kind explanation Chunky! _(NOT!)