For what it's worth, the ECM 12z op doesn't look an overly mild run to me at least. I guess that some of the concern expressed above is a lot to do with the chances of snowfall to lower levels in parts of the south.

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For what it's worth, the ECM 12z op doesn't look an overly mild run to me at least. I guess that some of the concern expressed above is a lot to do with the chances of snowfall to lower levels in parts of the south.

Not just the south David, but you’re right it is not a mild run, it’s just a comparative thing. My mind will be more at rest if the pub run maintains the cold to the level of 12s GFS op in the shortish to medium term.

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A narrow ridging of heights from SW to NE into Scandi that can result in a Scandi High.

Thanks Arcus - so it's a way of describing the HP but in TWO language, same as the Bartlett High!? Ok thanks.

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I think a return to conventional zonality is unlikely until at least after mid-month, there is persitent Euro troughing and a disorganised PV/jet. I would not expect to see the possibility of a Scandi High until January. 

We can’t say for sure but conventional zonality looks a nonstarter for the rest of this month to be honest, things can and do change quickly but looking at the NH profile it’s hard to see a raging PV anchored over Greenland anytime soon.

For what it's worth, the ECM 12z op doesn't look an overly mild run to me at least. I guess that some of the concern expressed above is a lot to do with the chances of snowfall to lower levels in parts of the south.

The snow cover chart for the 12z ECM shows snow from that slider on Sunday down as far as London and across most of East Anglia before it turns to rain somewhere before 6am.  Nothing south of the M4 corridor.

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When it comes to cold, if things can go wrong they often do for this part of the world.
ECM could well be the leader of the pack from this point.
I’m not expecting anything from this point other than wet snow north of the M4, maybe something more on high ground up north.

When it comes to cold, if things can go wrong they often do for this part of the world.
ECM could well be the leader of the pack from this point.
I’m not expecting anything from this point other than wet snow north of the M4, maybe something more on high ground up north.

I think lower levels up north are at risk, too. Even with the latest ECM run.

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When it comes to cold, if things can go wrong they often do for this part of the world.
ECM could well be the leader of the pack from this point.
I’m not expecting anything from this point other than wet snow north of the M4, maybe something more on high ground up north.

At first glance, the ECM mean charts would be more encouraging for cold weather fans than the op. 

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At first glance, the ECM mean charts would be more encouraging for cold weather fans than the op. 

Yes, I would agree with that. There are definitely colder opinions in the ensemble suite than the op run. If the GFS 18z is okay in terms of cold I would reserve judgement about the ECM until after tomorrow’s 00z runs.

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UKMO 168 has a nice slider across the SW

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I've just seen Nick Miller on tonight's Week Ahead forecast on the BBC Weather website mention storm force winds associated with that low pressure system which is forecast to bring in that next Arctic blast towards the end of next week. Could that be Storm Caroline on the way as well then during this week?

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Thanks Arcus - so it's a way of describing the HP but in TWO language, same as the Bartlett High!? Ok thanks.

Bartlett High is a "semi-official" (or at least long established) terminology. Murr sausage is just TWO silliness AFAIK.

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I've just seen Nick Miller on tonight's Week Ahead forecast on the BBC Weather website mention storm force winds associated with that low pressure system which is forecast to bring in that next Arctic blast towards the end of next week. Could that be Storm Caroline on the way as well then during this week?

Not if it's only affecting Scotland... If it might get windy in Englandshire, then a named storm is likely

FWIW I'm still hopeful of the Russian/Scandi high making an appearance.  Hints have been modeled in FI and if we continue see lower heights in to Europe I believe this is a possibility.

Once again even at an early stage the GFS op run seems colder than the ECM 12z was http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_75_1.png 

A spot of low “feels like/wind chill” there.

Edit - very consistent with once again 514dam air here -same as it was on the 12z but much lower than the 12z ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_84_1.png 

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Bartlett High is a "semi-official" (or at least long established) terminology. Murr sausage is just TWO silliness AFAIK.

Didn’t it used to be coined as a Kettley sausage (for those younger folk this is John Kettley) tha famous bbc snow loving weather forecaster from the 80’s

Then Steve Murr had taken the throne after referencing the sausage like high pressure scenario year after year?

Sadly you have to back ECM over GFS in these situations

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Once again even at an early stage the GFS op run seems colder than the ECM 12z was http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_75_1.png 

A spot of low “feels like/wind chill” there.

Edit - very consistent with once again 514dam air here -same as it was on the 12z but much lower than the 12z ECM http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_84_1.png 

ECM perhaps siding near to, but not quite as chilly as the GFS for the 00z set?

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The pub run settles on a Cheshire Gap streamer for Friday. Similar set up to the first dump of Jan 2013 down here, a wetish snow affair which was followed 48 hrs later by a bizarre system that tracked north from France and delivered a more serious dump on the Sunday. Would have been very disruptive had it not fallen on a weekend. Great weekend that - snow on lying snow in London.

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Sadly you have to back ECM over GFS in these situations

Which run? The GFS has been consistent yet you would back one individual operational run of the ECM? Why? Just because it is mild? If the 00z run is colder than the GFS I’m guessing you will still back it or will you shift your Eeyore’s gloomy place analysis to the next mildest option?

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18z has shifted the first slider west, as is always possible, and it misses almost completely.

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