Control looks better than the Op for an Easterly 

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The whole easterly scenario in the latter stages of the GFS 12z and on a few ensemble members is interesting, as its the first time its appeared. Its no surprise the 18z is different, as at this range there are so many different possible solutions. If the scenario keeps popping up and gets closer to the +240 range, then it might be one to watch for the Christmas period... otherwise forget it for now. My sense is the 18z GEFS is cranking up the Atlantic more in the latter stages...but still with a southerly je. So the next 10-15 days are going to be very interesting and possibly disruptive, but not necessarily all wintry. Wind and rain are the usual as we approach the equinox, but this year does look to have a colder flavour than usual in the mix...

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Control very close to an Easterly at 276 . 

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I don't have the link but the ECM ensembles and clusters were posted on Netweather and look pretty promising! At Day 12 66% show blocking to the NW.

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x2 Snow events? 12th and 15th?

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GFS 18z ensembles for London hold very cold for weekend but then trend milder with op run being about the coldest on offer. Lot of uncertainty still after Sunday.

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The milder longer term trend is evident on the GFS 00z again but so much happening in the interim that its not worth contemplating at this stage.
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017120500/gfs-0-312.png?0 

Strange also how upper temps contrast between GFS and GEM, the latter of which barely has -6 across much of the UK during the upcoming northerly whereas GFS has -8 to -10!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2017120500/gem-1-96.png?00 
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017120500/gfs-1-96.png?0 

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Fascinating output this morning, with the track of Sunday's low making a massive difference in the weather across the UK.

If ECM wins out, we'll see a 60-hour cold spell followed by widespread wind and rain.

GFS, on the other hand, would give a mixture of snow and rain in the south, followed by a repeat a couple of days later.

The MetO run sits squarely in the middle.

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Fascinating output this morning, with the track of Sunday's low making a massive difference in the weather across the UK.

If ECM wins out, we'll see a 60-hour cold spell followed by widespread wind and rain.

GFS, on the other hand, would give a mixture of snow and rain in the south, followed by a repeat a couple of days later.

The MetO run sits squarely in the middle.

Indeed.  ECM 144 shows a milder  wet and windy picture: Place your bets!

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Indeed.  ECM 144 shows a milder  wet and windy picture: Place your bets!

Given that GFS has backtracked on Thursday's low being due east of us (it's now going to end up over Scandinavia, just as the other models had it), you can probably guess where my money's going.

For whatever reason, it really seems hard to get the jet aligned so as to propel lows to be east (or heaven forbid southeast) of us. More often than not, they "correct" further north.

 

 

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Skipping through the output listening to England’s fightback in Adelaide.
Actually the track of Sunday’s slider is remarkably different between the big three, making a huge difference in the conditions any particular location can expect. Fascinating stuff.

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As they say in golf "never up, never in". Personally I think ECM 00z is an excellent run for much of the UK and I'd take my chances with it through the next 10 days rather than seeing precipitation scurrying off to the south.

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As they say in golf "never up, never in". Personally I think ECM 00z is an excellent run for much of the UK and I'd take my chances with it through the next 10 days rather than seeing precipitation scurrying off to the south.

It's excellent if you're a fan of rain, that's for sure! As for anything white, forget it unless you're in Scotland, Wales or halfway up a mountain...

Here's the ECM's "total snowfall" chart. Note that this shows how much snow there would be if none of it melted.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120500/great-britain/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20171213-1800z.html

(As ever, there's more exciting stuff towards the end of the run. Trouble is, it's always a week or more away!)

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Given that GFS has backtracked on Thursday's low being due east of us (it's now going to end up over Scandinavia, just as the other models had it), you can probably guess where my money's going.

For whatever reason, it really seems hard to get the jet aligned so as to propel lows to be east (or heaven forbid southeast) of us. More often than not, they "correct" further north.

 

 

JFF I will go against that & say based on history with lows that slide south East across the UK - the ECM will be far to progressive & the track will be a blend of UKMO & GFS...

UKMO tends to have the best track record here & its already backtracking west..

Day 9 on ECM looks very interesting... the wrong side of marginal perhaps. Also, it’s Day 9, not Day 3.

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As they say in golf "never up, never in". Personally I think ECM 00z is an excellent run for much of the UK and I'd take my chances with it through the next 10 days rather than seeing precipitation scurrying off to the south.

Phew!

I thought it was just me, I like the ECM and would take that 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png 

Before then the GFS has Friday’s 500-1000hPa thickness at 512dam here (was 514 on yesterday’s12z) and the ECM is now 518dam, for the same time point yesterday it was 524dam, interesting.

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Graupal and snow showers are pretty much a given now for Friday I would think except maybe on north facing SW coasts. I’d be surprised if most places didn’t see at least a flurry at some point between Friday am and Sat pm - some places a lot more.
Sunday on the other hand is far from sorted 😉

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I must say I'm a bit puzzled by the negative remarks about the ECM run this morning. It seems a lot better than the last two or three and has definitely moved towards a less progressive picture. Still not *quite* good enough down here but if we end up with the much-vaunted "halfway house", given that GFS is still showing the attacking low on Sunday miss us to the south, we could well get lucky.

In the longer term ECM also looks better than GFS, which seems to have given up on the Scandi high idea for now.

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The "slider" (or not) is starting to come into range of the high-res models. Here's the WRF-NMM and it looks pretty decent to me?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=120&mode=16&map=20

 

ICON has very different ideas. 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon-eu.php?ech=120&mode=2&map=510

 

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