It’s not even a hurricane now. 

Really? last time I looked at the NHC it was a category 2 storm with sustained winds of 105mph, sounds an awful lot like a hurricane to me...

It will probably transition to extra tropical later on tomorrow or sunday, but take nothing away from this setup, it is very unusual for the UK and no doubt the warmer then normal SSTs in the eastern Atlantic will provide it with hurricane strength winds for a bit longer.

 

You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

It is still a category 2 hurricane, don't know where you are getting your information from!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

Beautiful.

 

You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

Yet people have already shown you that a system can retain tropical characteristics north of 50 degrees, albeit very very rarely. 

 You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

Quantum knows his stuff Matty. We are lucky to have him here. We can all learn if we are open and accepting of others viewpoints. I for one have learn't a significant amount regarding this subject  Thanks again Q. 

 

You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

What? Yes it is.

Its still a category 2 hurricane. I mean seriously what is your definition of a hurricane because its clearly not a sensible one.

This thing formed in waters of 17C

Just sayin...

I should point this out. It will be categorized as a hurricane even if it isn't fully barotropic. A hybrid system will also be classed as a hurricane. Sandy is a good example of a system that had both barotropic and baroclinic properties. Now clearly the intensification of the storm as it moves north is induced by increased baroclinicity but that doesn't mean it won't also maintain tropical cyclone like properties such as an eye wall and an inner core.

Like Sandy it will still be officially described as a hurricane even if its only 40% tropical. I am interested in chasing that official designation (and an official TS would be just as good). 

Will the hurricane still have an 'eye wall' at this stage ? (11am on 16th October)

I viewed some high res data earlier today showing gusts as high as 117mph towards its SE quadrant on its northward approach to Ireland.

Will the hurricane still have an 'eye wall' at this stage ? (11am on 16th October)

I viewed some high res data earlier today showing gusts as high as 117mph towards its SE quadrant on its northward approach to Ireland.

 

I think the honest answer is we don't know. I've got bogged down on here (and twitter) arguing that such a thing is possible, but I want to make it clear that I do not put forward the position such a thing is probable. Nevertheless I'd still say we have around a 30% of having an official hurricane hit Ireland or any other part of the British Isles. That in itself is amazing imho. 

 I think the honest answer is we don't know. I've got bogged down on here (and twitter) arguing that such a thing is possible, but I want to make it clear that I do not put forward the position such a thing is probable. Nevertheless I'd still say we have around a 30% of having an official hurricane hit Ireland or any other part of the British Isles. That in itself is amazing imho. 

Cheers. A fascinating two or three days. A hurricane and a heatwave. We are being spoilt 

FAX chart showing a tropical Ophelia at the same latitude as France

A good summary here. It also includes the cone of probabilities. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hurricane-ophelia-is-headed-for-an-unlikely-place----ireland-2017-10-13

Crickey NHC showing that as a Hurricane as it heads just S/West Ireland >74 substained

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204751_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

That actually show a post/ex-tropical cyclone with hurricane strength winds (to be pedantic). Quite intense but not a hurricane, despite the ‘H’.

 Not seen that before M cheers for explaining

">http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/refresh/AL172017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204751_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

That actually show a post/ex-tropical cyclone with hurricane strength winds (to be pedantic). Quite intense but not a hurricane, despite the ‘H’.

Arpege has gusts of 90mph in western Ireland. The track on recent model runs has been more consistent than I expected. 

Going to do a discussion of Ophelia here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HbJ73IcpDC4

Live in a few minutes. Going to focus on the extratropical transition.

 

Yet people have already shown you that a system can retain tropical characteristics north of 50 degrees, albeit very very rarely. 

Your suffering from severe Quantumism. 

I’ll reiterate for the hard of reading - HURRICANE!! 

Your tropical scharacteristic guff isn’t what I am talking about. A HURRICANE HITTING THE UK. It won’t. Ever. Unless global warming ever increases the sea temps around our island and for thousands of miles in every direction to a point where a hurricane had any chance of remaining a hurricane. 

Apologies on the current status error. Doesn’t change what I’m saying though