The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
12 October 2017 20:32:07

 

The only difference between a  dog and a cat is that one is a dog and one is a cat. Not sure what your point is here. They are different. 

Anyway, we’re never going to agree on this. If it happens one day (which it never has) I’ll concede. Until then we’ll have to agree to disagree.  

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

No its more like a TS is a pug and a Hurricane is a Pomeranian and an extratropical cyclone is a cat. 

A TS is just a slightly weaker hurricane, although having a TS landfall in the UK would only be marginally less awe inspiring. It would still make meteorological history. 

 

FYI Pug and Pomeranian are pretty much the only dog breeds I know. I like them because they look cute. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
12 October 2017 20:33:43

Did the October '87 storm not have hurricane force winds associated with it? It certainly left devastation in it's wake across large swathes of the country. Remember Sevenoaks - whcih over night becaome One Oak.

Originally Posted by: briggsy6 

Yes it did but it was definitely not a hurricane. In fact I think you'd struggle to get a more pure baroclinic system. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

David M Porter
12 October 2017 20:45:48

 

Yes it did but it was definitely not a hurricane. In fact I think you'd struggle to get a more pure baroclinic system. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

It wasn't a hurricane officially, but given the way the press went about it both at the time and then for years afterwards, one could almost have been forgiven for thinking it had been so. How many times have they replayed the opening couple of lines of Michael Fish's infamous forecast from the afternoon before the storm!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

briggsy6
12 October 2017 21:07:10

It even featured in the opening ceremony of the London Olympics. Poor Michael Fish will never be able to live it down.


Location: Uxbridge
Stormchaser
12 October 2017 21:08:21

Regardless of how close Ophelia gets and how tropical it is on closest approach or landfall, I am intrigued by the potential for some degree of 'subsidence warming' ahead of the system; tropical cyclones produce upper-level outflow channels of warm air, which then tend to slow down a little way ahead of the system's track (as the upper-level flow is often the steering flow too) and then subside toward the surface, with consequential warming which can then lead to increased surface temperatures compared to what would usually be taking place under a given setup of airflow and airmass temperatures.

This could give Monday's temperatures a little extra kick upward. What I don't know, helpfully enough, is whether this is already being incorporated into the models... 


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Keep Calm and Forecast On

eddied
12 October 2017 21:40:02
Been a while since I posted on here.

So...

Apart from this weekend's heatwave, next week's hurricane and the chance of first snow at the end of the month, anything interesting to report?

Of course, it'll probably be slightly warm this weekend, a bit breezy next week and slightly below average thereafter but we can dream! 🙂


Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL

Winter 22/23

Days snow falling: 4

Days snow on ground:8

Max snow depths: 6cm (December 19th ish)

Summer 2022 max 39C on July 19th

Summer 2021 max: 32C on July 18th

Summer 2020 max: 36C on July 31st

Matty H
12 October 2017 22:58:32

 

No its more like a TS is a pug and a Hurricane is a Pomeranian and an extratropical cyclone is a cat. 

A TS is just a slightly weaker hurricane, although having a TS landfall in the UK would only be marginally less awe inspiring. It would still make meteorological history. 

 

FYI Pug and Pomeranian are pretty much the only dog breeds I know. I like them because they look cute. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

 

Your dog game is strong


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

Quantum
12 October 2017 23:06:14

Regardless of how close Ophelia gets and how tropical it is on closest approach or landfall, I am intrigued by the potential for some degree of 'subsidence warming' ahead of the system; tropical cyclones produce upper-level outflow channels of warm air, which then tend to slow down a little way ahead of the system's track (as the upper-level flow is often the steering flow too) and then subside toward the surface, with consequential warming which can then lead to increased surface temperatures compared to what would usually be taking place under a given setup of airflow and airmass temperatures.

This could give Monday's temperatures a little extra kick upward. What I don't know, helpfully enough, is whether this is already being incorporated into the models... 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

I still think this is fascinating though. If it looses all its tropical characteristics it might only be the strongest ex-hurricane in a few decades but if it can hold on to them it will be a meteorological first and a once in a lifetime event.

Plus MattyH gets proven wrong which is always a nice bonus. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
13 October 2017 10:14:20

Plus MattyH gets proven wrong which is always a nice bonus. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Matty H
13 October 2017 13:10:01

 

I still think this is fascinating though. If it looses all its tropical characteristics it might only be the strongest ex-hurricane in a few decades but if it can hold on to them it will be a meteorological first and a once in a lifetime event.

Plus MattyH gets proven wrong which is always a nice bonus. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

yorkshirelad89
13 October 2017 13:34:11

 It’s not even a hurricane now. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Really? last time I looked at the NHC it was a category 2 storm with sustained winds of 105mph, sounds an awful lot like a hurricane to me...

It will probably transition to extra tropical later on tomorrow or sunday, but take nothing away from this setup, it is very unusual for the UK and no doubt the warmer then normal SSTs in the eastern Atlantic will provide it with hurricane strength winds for a bit longer.


Hull
redmoons
13 October 2017 13:49:42

 

You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

It is still a category 2 hurricane, don't know where you are getting your information from!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents


Rob K
13 October 2017 14:25:53
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=18754&y=4749&z=4&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20171010150038&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

LeedsLad123
13 October 2017 16:43:14

 

You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Yet people have already shown you that a system can retain tropical characteristics north of 50 degrees, albeit very very rarely. 


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
Gusty
13 October 2017 17:57:52

 You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Quantum knows his stuff Matty. We are lucky to have him here. We can all learn if we are open and accepting of others viewpoints. I for one have learn't a significant amount regarding this subject  Thanks again Q. 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Quantum
13 October 2017 18:32:52

 

You’ve no chance. It’s not even a hurricane now. There’s absolutely no chance whatsoever it’ll reintensify as it heads north into increasingly cooler waters. 

Seeing as you appear to be moving the goalposts I’ll just remind you that I have confidently said no bonafida hurricane can ever hit the UK. Impossible given our location and enormous area of cool water stretching for thousands or miles west and southwest of us. Zero chance. You sticking a warm core into a depression and getting excited because you feel you can chuck the word tropical into it, doesn’t make a hurricane. 

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

What? Yes it is.

Its still a category 2 hurricane. I mean seriously what is your definition of a hurricane because its clearly not a sensible one.

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
13 October 2017 18:33:56

This thing formed in waters of 17C

Just sayin...


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
13 October 2017 18:37:19

I should point this out. It will be categorized as a hurricane even if it isn't fully barotropic. A hybrid system will also be classed as a hurricane. Sandy is a good example of a system that had both barotropic and baroclinic properties. Now clearly the intensification of the storm as it moves north is induced by increased baroclinicity but that doesn't mean it won't also maintain tropical cyclone like properties such as an eye wall and an inner core.

Like Sandy it will still be officially described as a hurricane even if its only 40% tropical. I am interested in chasing that official designation (and an official TS would be just as good). 

 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gusty
13 October 2017 18:47:58

Will the hurricane still have an 'eye wall' at this stage ? (11am on 16th October)

I viewed some high res data earlier today showing gusts as high as 117mph towards its SE quadrant on its northward approach to Ireland.

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

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Quantum
13 October 2017 18:53:36

Will the hurricane still have an 'eye wall' at this stage ? (11am on 16th October)

I viewed some high res data earlier today showing gusts as high as 117mph towards its SE quadrant on its northward approach to Ireland.

 

Originally Posted by: Gusty 

I think the honest answer is we don't know. I've got bogged down on here (and twitter) arguing that such a thing is possible, but I want to make it clear that I do not put forward the position such a thing is probable. Nevertheless I'd still say we have around a 30% of having an official hurricane hit Ireland or any other part of the British Isles. That in itself is amazing imho. 


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gusty
13 October 2017 18:56:31

 I think the honest answer is we don't know. I've got bogged down on here (and twitter) arguing that such a thing is possible, but I want to make it clear that I do not put forward the position such a thing is probable. Nevertheless I'd still say we have around a 30% of having an official hurricane hit Ireland or any other part of the British Isles. That in itself is amazing imho. 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Cheers. A fascinating two or three days. A hurricane and a heatwave. We are being spoilt 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Quantum
13 October 2017 20:13:25

FAX chart showing a tropical Ophelia at the same latitude as France


25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Gusty
13 October 2017 20:42:13

A good summary here. It also includes the cone of probabilities. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hurricane-ophelia-is-headed-for-an-unlikely-place----ireland-2017-10-13

 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent

Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 

Join Kent Weather on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Polar Low
13 October 2017 21:23:47

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