We could have our first widespread frosts as we head into the new month. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_156_1.png

And there’s my first winter post. ;-) 

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First toppler of the season?

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That seems to have been a bit of a trend in the last few runs across the models. If it lasts for about 6 weeks we could be in business. 

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Quite similar 12Z to late October 2012, snow fell really quite far south and it was the earliest snow had fallen in several decades at least. 

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Quite similar 12Z to late October 2012, snow fell really quite far south and it was the earliest snow had fallen in several decades at least. 

Didn't snow fall in some southern counties in late October 2008 Q, say around Halloween? I seem to remember there being quite a bit of discussion about that on this forum around that time.

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Didn't snow fall in some southern counties in late October 2008 Q, say around Halloween? I seem to remember there being quite a bit of discussion about that on this forum around that time.

October 2008 was much better here.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1680

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1681

 

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Quite similar 12Z to late October 2012, snow fell really quite far south and it was the earliest snow had fallen in several decades at least. 

My first couple of years in Aberdeen (1993 and 1994) both had snow in earlier October. Hard to believe considering the last few years! I’ve almost forgotten what snow looks like 

The snow row numbers starting to appear on the GEFS charts might be as close I/we will get for a while!

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Didn't snow fall in some southern counties in late October 2008 Q, say around Halloween? I seem to remember there being quite a bit of discussion about that on this forum around that time.

It did indeed but was 3 days later which makes a big difference insofar as records go. You will be hard pressed to find any snow event earlier than the 26th October.

 

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It did indeed but was 3 days later which makes a big difference insofar as records go. You will be hard pressed to find any snow event earlier than the 26th October.

 

In the south you mean presumably Q? We had inches of the stuff on the 3rd of October 2004.

For what it’s worth the ECM op run is similiar to the GFS run (not that either are snowy for the record!)

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My first couple of years in Aberdeen (1993 and 1994) both had snow in earlier October. Hard to believe considering the last few years! I’ve almost forgotten what snow looks like 

The snow row numbers starting to appear on the GEFS charts might be as close I/we will get for a while!

xmas day 93 was the best that I can remember... you must have had a decent first year!

 

xmas day 93 was the best that I can remember... you must have had a decent first year!

I certainly did! 

Almost as good as the fabled winter of 2017-18 

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In the south you mean presumably Q? We had inches of the stuff on the 3rd of October 2004.

For what it’s worth the ECM op run is similiar to the GFS run (not that either are snowy for the record!)

Yeh, I mean Snow in September is a 1 in 10 year event for the Shetland Isles whilst I can't imagine snow in Aberdeen is unbelievably rare in October. The Late October 2012 event saw snow in England albeit not, as far as I'm aware, in central london like 2008.

 

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Yeh, I mean Snow in September is a 1 in 10 year event for the Shetland Isles whilst I can't imagine snow in Aberdeen is unbelievably rare in October. The Late October 2012 event saw snow in England albeit not, as far as I'm aware, in central london like 2008.

 

I'm not sure. It snowed here which is 25 miles northwest of central London. 

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I certainly did! 

Almost as good as the fabled winter of 2017-18 

I look forward to this weekend when the clocks go back and we receive charts that 1 hour earlier. For me it signals the start of the winter season and looking for those first elusive signs of something wintry on the horizon.

Appears the start of the month may herald a change to something seasonal. Let's hope the pattern gets stuck in a rut on the colder side.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_225_1.png 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_225_1.png 

Very much looking forward to silly season with a promise that I am going to be far more constructive and less of the hyperbole this winter....For what it's worth I have a sneaky feeling that this coming winter will produce a LOT more interest than the last several and will counter the background signals that have been pointing towards another mild one.

Something just feels different this year and although my pattern matching methodology will be kept quiet this year I do feel we are in for a much more interesting winter this time around.

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Very much looking forward to silly season with a promise that I am going to be far more constructive and less of the hyperbole this winter....For what it's worth I have a sneaky feeling that this coming winter will produce a LOT more interest than the last several and will counter the background signals that have been pointing towards another mild one.

Something just feels different this year and although my pattern matching methodology will be kept quiet this year I do feel we are in for a much more interesting winter this time around.

 

That's close to a ramp, young Moomin...

 

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The signal for the Arctic plunge is becoming more confident:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_240_mslp850.png?cb=494

That looks like 2010 has come early!

Edit: pah! Link won't open. Take a look at Op 240 in the 6z suite.

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That's close to a ramp, young Moomin...

 

Almost Yes. Because I don't think I've seen Ensembles like this much if at all in the last 3 or 4 years. Even in winter. Really good agreement of something interesting just down the line.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

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