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So a chill for eastern areas this weekend and settled for a while thereafter. What strikes me about current charts is the weak Atlantic, with lower then normal SLP around the Azores a frequent occurance.
I agree but haven't we seen that in several recent autumns? I've noticed on a few GFS op runs the blues and purples are starting to appear in FI.
A few potent northerlies in the GEFS, like this one
That was the scenario being shown by Louise Lear on the late weather last night - a brief northerly this weekend into early next week (due to a high to our west & low to our east), followed by a low passing through, then back to a northerly with the same broad set-up as before.
Aye it seems thats the new thing to lull us into a false sense of security with regards to the atlantic. (Brian and the other storm aside)
Last year we thought we would be in blocking heaven before the atlantic woke up before Xmas, bang on schedule to some peoples winter forecast
From what im seeing in the charts. They seem to be heading in a very similar way to last years charts. The actual weather also seems to be very similar too.
I really hope thats not the case, as the past few winters for us in the North west have been quite poor.
Looks like the northerly mid next week is shifting eastwards each run with the core of cold and 'wintry' spell will be across Scandinavia and down into eastern Europe.
Not really. There was never a really wintry spell modelled across the U.K. and there still isn’t. What there was was a cool northerly blip on Sunday and another one a few days later. There still is. An overdue taste of autumn with a risk of frosts and some wintry showers for the Scottish mountains.
The chart above is one of the more “extreme” ensemble options and does not represent the overall outlook, just one somewhat unlikely possibility.
Not really. There was never a really wintry spell modelled across the U.K. and there still isn’t. What there was was a cool northerly blip on Sunday and another one a few days later. There still is. An overdue taste of autumn with a risk of frosts and some wintry showers for the Scottish mountains.The chart above is one of the more “extreme” ensemble options and does not represent the overall outlook, just one somewhat unlikely possibility.
It's a bit of a no-lose situation, really, as at this time of year only very elevated positions would get any real winter conditions from pretty much all set-ups. If the whole set-up does move to the east, we get more influence of the high, which I'd probably rather have - 'mellow fruitfulness' would be reet.
All very pleasant for the foreseeable thanks to high pressure in residence close to our shores. The drop in the 850Hpa's will briefly remind us that we are nearly in November with the temperature returning back to average with the risk of a ground frost early Monday before the milder atlantic air wanders back across.
Looks like November could start on a mild note for a few
I’m guessing you have not noticed the last several runs that have shown a much stronger northerly at the start of November? If anything the one you posted has just subtly intensified to what it is now. We’ll see shortly if the more potent northerly is still shown around the 2nd of November.
And now that has vanished from GFS
Well - So much for this northerly mid next week I was looking forward to some colder seasonal weather - even if it was for a day or two.
After years of looking at weather models I would have thought that you would know not to put too much faith in models at a week to ten days out!
The more extreme options are rarely the one side that verify. It will be more seasonal in the middle of next week based on current charts but if you were suggesting/insinuating wintry weather was being shown and has now been removed then that is not the case.
The northerly influence overall is less strong than it was a few days ago but what do you seriously expect at that range?
Generally more seasonal after that milder bump has gone through and a little more unsettled to as we head into November.
Before and after from GFS as it gets rid of the early November northerly one reason why I prefer to stick to UKMO
After years of looking at weather models I would have thought that you would know not to put too much faith in models at a week to ten days out!The more extreme options are rarely the one side that verify. It will be more seasonal in the middle of next week based on current charts but if you were suggesting/insinuating wintry weather was being shown and has now been removed then that is not the case.The northerly influence overall is less strong than it was a few days ago but what do you seriously expect at that range?
I would argue anything past 3-5 days should be classed as FI and more so as we head into the winter months.😁
In that great mild mush fest of 2015 the models (all of them) were just showing unrelenting mild zonality as far as the eye could see which led me to my infamous write off of winter in mid November and my call for a record warm December which is exactly what transpired.
I see absolutely no sign of anything similar this year and a slow steady decline into winter looks far more likely than a long term zonal train this year in my opinion.
Yes quite. I just thought maybe one day just for once one - that the GFS will forecast a northerly and keep it and for this to turn out it correctly and that we will see a northerly in autumn or winter.
The problem has always been HP rising to our south perhaps?!
We know from long experience that GFS loves to plot deep northerlies over the UK at long range, and we also know that 95% of the time they will be watered down by becoming (a) less tight, (b) more NWly than straight northerly and (c) further east than originally modelled. It's a flaw in the model that really should have been addressed by now, after several new versions.