I've not seen it mentioned yet, perhaps it was and I missed it, but Ophelia's arrival to UK waters looks to coincide with the 30th anniversary of the storm of 1987.

I has been mentioned - spooky timing

Michael Fish's Hurricane 30 years late!

This evening's GFS has 25-26C in the east on Monday. Since it often undercooks temperatures, you could maybe push that slightly higher. Imagine 80F on 16 October?!

This evening's GFS has 25-26C in the east on Monday. Since it often undercooks temperatures, you could maybe push that slightly higher. Imagine 80F on 16 October?!

I've found GFS to be overcooking temperatures in the last month or so.  Maybe my imagination - anyone else noticed it?

ECM take on Ophelia

GFS pert 19 looks tasty!

GEM tonight suggests that England isn't safe just yet from a potentially damaging landfall.

GEM tonight suggests that England isn't safe just yet from a potentially damaging landfall.

A combination of the GEM positioning and pert 19 intensity would be interesting

A combination of the GEM positioning and pert 19 intensity would be interesting

Indeed Saint. We are not out of the woods just yet 

 

 

A combination of the GEM positioning and pert 19 intensity would be interesting

Been there, done that, would rather not repeat the experience

( 2 days without water supply, 5 days without electricity)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxp8fk1sjj7td08/ECM-Ophelia-15thOct17-OuchIreland.PNG?dl=0

Can't get images from that site to link directly so this'll have to do as proof that ECM predicts a peak gust of 111 mph for SW Ireland from Ophelia even as it makes the transition to ex-tropical. Interesting how the central pressure is 'only' 965 mb, meaning that the compact nature and contrast with the surrounding environmental pressure are key to its unusually powerful wind gusts. 

Even NW Wales sees gusts up to 85 mph during the following 6 hours. So regardless of how much in the way of tropical characteristics are retained (if any) up to the point of impacting to the UK, this storm has the potential to be very dangerous and is one to keep a very close eye on.

 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/max-temperature-6h/20171016-1200z.html

Oh, now I go and figure out the link method! ECM shows peak temps on Monday seemingly of 22*C at first glance but small areas of darker shading suggest a localised 23*C. I suppose the wind is strong enough on this run that even as far across land from the windward waters as East Anglia, the sea is having some degree of moderating effect. Cloud cover is low away from some bands (with no rain, though) in the SW.

The run then moves the major Atlantic trough east of us and sets up a split tropospheric vortex for day 10, which I will include purely for amusement purposes as I imagine the cries of 'wasting such a setup!' (as if that was how it worked!) and 'if only it was January!' .

 

The run then moves the major Atlantic trough east of us and sets up a split tropospheric vortex for day 10

 

But then there's the interesting question of how do we get there from here?

GFS 0z shifts the remains of Ophelia around the north of Scotland and off to Noeway - quite benign for the UK  - and it's not really interested in developing the trough to the east anyway. NAVGEM similar, both returning to mild, not to say warm SW-lies.

In ECM and GEM Ophelia opens the floodgates to the Atlantic with a nasty-looking storm about the end of next week eg for Thu 19th across England and Wales - sub 530 dam air, anyone?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=192&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=156&mode=0&carte=0 

a few cold shots starting to appear in FI.  Interestingly consistent shout of a Greenland high

and so it begins

Despite some clear baroclinic interaction this thing does still retain tropical characturistics when it hits the UK. Although not the remarkable case of the 18Z yesterday which had a full hurricane hitting the UK. The GFS today suggests a hybrid (sandy type) system.

Ophelia is still a deep warm cored system when it hits the UK although has become asymmetrical.

If Ophelia moves further east than projected the transition will be much slower. There is still potential for the first ever hurricane to landfall in the british isles.

Will we improve on tropical storm Grace?

When people look at this can they truly say with absolute certainty that a hurricane is not possible in the UK?

Latest NHC analysis keeps it at 75kt though they acknowledge that could be conservative. Forecast has been upgraded to bring the storm to a top cat 1 level by tomorrow. To be honest intensity predictions are academic at this point as NHC is effectively admitting that we don't even know what its intensity now is.

Its 'cat 1' status is arbitary. Measurement uncertainty means it could be anything from a TS to a Cat 3. We won't know until post analysis.

FYI the storm has intensified since the last update. We know that much, the reason its intensity has been held at 75kt is due to measurement uncertainty. Though its not really possible to know exactly how strong it is, we can say with high confidence it has got stronger in the last 6 hours.

Latest NHC analysis keeps it at 75kt though they acknowledge that could be conservative. Forecast has been upgraded to bring the storm to a top cat 1 level by tomorrow. To be honest intensity predictions are academic at this point as NHC is effectively admitting that we don't even know what its intensity now is.

Its 'cat 1' status is arbitary. Measurement uncertainty means it could be anything from a TS to a Cat 3. We won't know until post analysis.

 

FYI the storm has intensified since the last update. We know that much, the reason its intensity has been held at 75kt is due to measurement uncertainty. Though its not really possible to know exactly how strong it is, we can say with high confidence it has got stronger in the last 6 hours.

Q - how can the hurricane sustain its power when interacting with markedly cold waters?  Surely this will just kill most of its intensity and steer it more in the direction of a normal British isles LP?

 

 

Q - how can the hurricane sustain its power when interacting with markedly cold waters?  Surely this will just kill most of its intensity and steer it more in the direction of a normal British isles LP?

It takes time to kill a cyclone, and upper tropospheric cold anomolies keep the convection going. The real problem is the wind shear that will be provided by that trough.

To be clear I do not expect it to be tropical by the time it hits the UK, but if it track gets corrected east we still cannot rule it out.

 

Will we improve on tropical storm Grace?

When people look at this can they truly say with absolute certainty that a hurricane is not possible in the UK?

In all honesty - Yes. I’m absolutely certain. No hurricane would maintain its characteristic over our waters. You’ve seen how hurricanes can deteriorate immediately once in contact with land. This is what happens to any hurricane and former hurricane once it gets anywhere near these shores due to the much cooler waters. 

 

 

In all honesty - Yes. I’m absolutely certain. No hurricane would maintain its characteristic over our waters. You’ve seen how hurricanes can deteriorate immediately once in contact with land. This is what happens to any hurricane and former hurricane once it gets anywhere near these shores due to the much cooler waters. 

Then how do you explain Tropical storm Grace which was at the same latitude as Devon when it finally transitioned just to the south of Ireland?

Or Hurricane Faith that transitioned near the Fareo islands? Or Hurricane Vince over Spain?

Cold water is not an irreconcilable problem in the same way landfall is. Tropical storm grace actually formed over 20C water. Medicanes, which are tropical like systems can form over water as cold as 15C.

Convection can overcome cold water provided the upper troposphere is also very cold. If you look at Emanual's basic theory the real thing that matters is the vertical instability; so cold upper tropospheric anomalies can compensate for cold SSTs although the convection will be muted due to a lower tropopause.

Cold water is not the reason the UK doesn't get hurricanes, Wind shear is a far bigger issue but if Ophelia can get a bit of distance between itself and the trough then it will take more time to disrupt its inner core.