Actually that would be a coincidentally amazing pattern shift across the month boundary- from benign autumnal pleasantry at the very end of October, to an Arctic blast so early in November. Early November northerlies- even with sub- -5C uppers- don't often produce snow in CSEngland; an easterly like early Nov 1980 is more effective, but rare as hen's teeth. That said, this northerly is mapped out as something special, with some intrusion of the Scandi low westwards and -10 uppers flirting with the far Northern Isles.

Something blocky this way comes? Too far that way to call.

Just think of November 1978 - and November 2010. They are rare - But that chart would never surprise me if that came off this year.

 

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Some oddness going on with the chart links today. Had to remove everything in the links from 'chart=' leftward to get them to work.

Anyway - watching (after a difficult start as the trough breaks down rather messily) the 15*C 850 hPa isotherm expand enormously across western Europe and then to the SW of the UK days 7-10 of the ECM run makes me wonder if it's actually still September and we've all been had for laughs 

Seriously though - if that plume of warmth was sent directly our way instead of to the west, we'd probably see temps a few degrees past 20 in favoured spots, provided of course mist, fog and low cloud all step aside for a bit - which is increasingly rare as October wears on, I know. Without a brisk flow and dry enough air entrained, we'd just end up with a fog-fest or low-cloud-fest. The former would be of some interest with unusually dense fog likely given that warmer air holds more moisture at saturation, but the low cloud outcome would be just dire... already far too much of that here in recent times with last Fri-Mon almost entirely blighted by it. I never even got to see 20*C on the thermometer! 

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Some oddness going on with the chart links today. Had to remove everything in the links from 'chart=' leftward to get them to work.

Anyway - watching (after a difficult start as the trough breaks down rather messily) the 15*C 850 hPa isotherm expand enormously across western Europe and then to the SW of the UK days 7-10 of the ECM run makes me wonder if it's actually still September and we've all been had for laughs 

Seriously though - if that plume of warmth was sent directly our way instead of to the west, we'd probably see temps a few degrees past 20 in favoured spots, provided of course mist, fog and low cloud all step aside for a bit - which is increasingly rare as October wears on, I know. Without a brisk flow and dry enough air entrained, we'd just end up with a fog-fest or low-cloud-fest. The former would be of some interest with unusually dense fog likely given that warmer air holds more moisture at saturation, but the low cloud outcome would be just dire... already far too much of that here in recent times with last Fri-Mon almost entirely blighted by it. I never even got to see 20*C on the thermometer! 

 

Some notable cold building out east though ;)

Hmmmm. Other than the odd cooler interlude It's all looking notably warmer than average to me at present, with the 6z gfs screaming humid, foggy and cloudy for large parts of the run. With HP fairly prevalent just to the East it could well take a while to break out of this pattern - will be good for avoiding using the heating down here I spose but It's not particularly interesting.

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Hmmmm. Other than the odd cooler interlude It's all looking notably warmer than average to me at present, with the 6z gfs screaming humid, foggy and cloudy for large parts of the run. With HP fairly prevalent just to the East it could well take a while to break out of this pattern - will be good for avoiding using the heating down here I spose but It's not particularly interesting.

I don't think a warm October necessarily gives us any clues for the forthcoming winter but I would much rather see these synoptics now than in mid-late November when I think it appears to be increasingly difficult to break out of.

Indeed the infamously warm December of 2015 had these type of synoptics in November leading me to plump for a record breaking December which (by luck not judgement) came off.

If skies can clear for any amount of time then yes fog becomes an issue but equally if we can tap in to the warmth still to our South then high teens to low 20s cannot be ruled out. I am looking at seeing whether we can have another scarily warm Halloween which seems possible.

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So even after the first trough disruption fails, ECM still sets up the dug-down low near the Azores by day 10, while having built a mighty plume of heat to the south - and yes that is actual 'heat' not far south of us, as Gavin D handily highlighted this morning. 

Starting to wonder if the Halloween Heater will be seen for the third time in four years... I'm having to get used to having birthdays with early-mid-afternoon temps near 20*C! 

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So even after the first trough disruption fails, ECM still sets up the dug-down low near the Azores by day 10, while having built a mighty plume of heat to the south - and yes that is actual 'heat' not far south of us, as Gavin D handily highlighted this morning. 

Starting to wonder if the Halloween Heater will be seen for the third time in four years... I'm having to get used to having birthdays with early-mid-afternoon temps near 20*C! 

The record Haloween max was 23.6C. I wonder if that is under threat this year. Amazing.

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After all the excitement of this week, the Atlantic goes into snooze mode, not to say sunbathing for a couple of weeks. But if you credit GFS at long range, the weekend of Nov 4/5 will be a bad idea for a bonfire party. Miserably cold in addition to rain and wind.

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Continued signs on the 18z of a notably warm end to October. I am starting to think we are going to get a record warm Halloween. Insane charts with the 564 dam line in the south. 20c plus maxes?

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Continued signs on the 18z of a notably warm end to October. I am starting to think we are going to get a record warm Halloween. Insane charts with the 564 dam line in the south. 20c plus maxes?

Looking at the bigger picture the 12z had a split vortex with high pressure  from Alaska to Scandinavia at one point... I'm waiting to see if continues...

Quite nice in seeing these warm plumes being shown. 20c by the end of the month? Yes please!!!

Quite funny as I believe it was The Star (not the Express this time) which wrote a piece (about 7-8 days ago!) on the likelihood of a record-breaking warm Halloween. They could be right.... for once.

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GFS06z well worth a look from this point onwards:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Prizes for everyone if it were to verify. 

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That's the first wintry GFS run of the season... 

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Quite a few chart forecasts have hinted at a cold spell in the first week of November.

 

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Wouldn't surprise me, the weather always turns cold around Bonfire night. You could bet your house on it.

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Wouldn't surprise me, the weather always turns cold around Bonfire night. You could bet your house on it.

Not in my experience it doesn't.   Mild, wet and windy is as likely as clear and cold; possibly more likely.

 

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GFS06z well worth a look from this point onwards:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=201&chartname=mslp500&chartregion=na&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Prizes for everyone if it were to verify. 

 

That would be extremely wintry for the NW of Scotland. Thundersnow there for sure. I mean we all know it won't verify though...

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Not in my experience it doesn't.   Mild, wet and windy is as likely as clear and cold; possibly more likely.

 

I agree. 

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Lots of cold air moving into northern Europe next week

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

GFS, and to a lesser extent ECM, show an Arctic rather than Siberian origin fr this air

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=168&mode=0&carte=

I'm quite happy for the cold air to stay there for now if we can draw on it come January

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