It’s started early I see 😊
Could you describe your reasoning behind why the impressively consistant signal for a N/NW flow next week and a more ‘seasonal’ feel (GFS and to an extent ECM) looks ‘pretty unlikely’.
Not sure what you mean by 'started early', but I'll give it a go.
GFS seems to forecast poorly the tropical forcing in early November, it just has too much rainfall in the tropical Western Hemisphere and as a result it's very amplified over both N.America and Europe.
ECMWF and GEM (ensembles) seem more reasonable and less biased in their tropical forcing and they are trending towards a warmer outcome for the UK (for the first 10-15 days of Nov).
No certainties as usually with weather, but I think it's more likely that GFS will eventually trend much warmer.