You got to laugh  (Or cry ) 

As soon as the approach to the silly season begins you see chart's like this starting to appear 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017102812/ECM1-240.GIF?28-0  

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

You got to laugh  (Or cry ) 

As soon as the approach to the silly season begins you see chart's like this starting to appear 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017102812/ECM1-240.GIF?28-0  

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 

Mean of GFS ENS bang on the average going into mid-Nov. Looks average to me!

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

It sure does look benign as a whole for the next 7-10 days across most of the UK. Pretty dry with that - particularly considering that 99% of the rain across S. England comes from a quite vigorous (rainfall-wise) wave that the GFS 12z has moving across next Sunday when other models have it either weaker, further south, or both.

Impressive contrast in far-W. Scotland though, as the moist TM airflow on the NW flank of the high remains quasi-stationary for 2-3 days.

That these generally sluggish Atlantic troughs are occurring with a typical-strength polar vortex for the time of year demonstrates how large areas of poleward-moving anomalously warm air are messing with the thermal winds (jet stream) and forcing some meridionality during what would usually be a predominantly zonal period. With any luck this conflict with what the polar vortex would rather have taking place will have consequences that disrupt the vortex down the line.

I'm not going to give any idea when that might be, as for one thing it's still a bit too early in my book to be playing that game .

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

Great post and commentary there. I think I know what you're alluding to.

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 

Can’t post link but the 06z isn’t without interest. 

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

without looking im going to think thats based on perhaps some North east HP influence thats been present on the last few runs.  

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Looks like a general polar maritime pattern for the next few weeks with pressure generally high around the Azores and low to the North.
Way too early to speculate on December but Gavin P’s excellent updates are well worth viewing.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Yes, I think that's broadly the signal.  At least we're not getting too much evidence of tropical maritime dominating.

One recurring theme of late has been for GFS to keep driving surges of energy south-east, displacing the high pressure westwards. Almost 'cold zonal' and certainly no evidence of the west-east progression being blocked so far.

The GFS and ECM ensembles both point at somewhat colder than normal but nothing at all exceptional.

Except perhaps as SC noted earlier, for the limited precipitation (aside from the usual few rogue runs):

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The initial winter looking charts starting to filter into the runs now. Has to be said, theyre already taking on a very similar look and feel to how the charts ran for the majority of last winter - with perhaps a less explosive Atlantic, and more of a blocking mid atlantic high driving milder weather to our shores and trickling the cold off to eastern europe.

Hope this isnt a sign of things to come. Been a very snowless period for Wirral in recent winters. I can count the number of snow events (as in snow falling from the sky) over the last 4 yrs on 2 fingers.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

I know what you mean.  My initial thougths were around high pressure being too close to the SW of the UK again, pushing - as you say - any cold plunges down through Scandinavia and central Europe.

But the pattern so far does seem subtly different. We're not stuck in a rpedominatily tropical maritme flow from south of west and there does seem to be a greater signal for a cooler polar maritime dominance.   If we do get more of a west to north-west flow then it takes less to get Arctic air over us than if we're stuck predominantly under south-westerlies.  I'd also add that the pattern over the Pole looks rather different at the moment: the typical deep almost permanent upper low over Greenland, controlling the north Atlantic, isn't showing (yet).

We've had one brief Arctic incursion so far; there's another this weekend and the likelihood of a third the following week. Then deep into FI the 06z produces this:

I'm not saying this is going to verify but it supports the idea that we may not be in the same pattern as last winter.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The initial winter looking charts starting to filter into the runs now. Has to be said, theyre already taking on a very similar look and feel to how the charts ran for the majority of last winter - with perhaps a less explosive Atlantic, and more of a blocking mid atlantic high driving milder weather to our shores and trickling the cold off to eastern europe.

Hope this isnt a sign of things to come. Been a very snowless period for Wirral in recent winters. I can count the number of snow events (as in snow falling from the sky) over the last 4 yrs on 2 fingers.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Far too early for me to comment but i dont get the feel of last winter at all............but too early to really tell and of course it all depends where the PV sets up IMO .

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Far too early for me to comment but i dont get the feel of last winter at all............but too early to really tell and of course it all depends where the PV sets up IMO .

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Last year, hopes on here were sky high after a cold November, and some sort of OPI bollox, and it all went wrong.  You are right to be careful.

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

I thought the OPI year was 2015/16. Wasn’t last year all about QBO? 

That reminds me, I’ve got a collect in store to pick up at B&Q (a snow shovel and driveway salt) :)

Originally Posted by: nsrobins