Still awaiting ECM 00z

For all the talk there was a few days ago about another record warm Halloween being a possibility, it starting to look as though the models have kicked that one into touch.

Worth noting that in both spring and autumn (but probably more so spring), v cold and v warm are 'close' in synoptic terms. At this time of year a South easterly pattern is still warm whilst a north easterly pattern is cold. Both can be caused by HP retrogressing north westward. Therefore, in my opinion, it would be incorrect to describe this as any kind of model flip; and that in actuality signs of very warm weather at this time of year imply cold may also be round the corner (provided the warm air is not from maritime south westerlies).

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Still awaiting ECM 00z

Due to unforeseen circumstances, the delivery of the ECMWF 00z High-Resolution Deterministic Forecast, the 00z Boundary Condition Forecast (Atmospheric and Wave) and ensemble forecast (Atmospheric and Wave) will unfortunately be delayed. At the moment we do not have an estimate for the delivery time, but we will keep you posted.

Our sincere apologies for the inconvenience caused by this delay.

EDIT: 00z ECM on its way out now.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_195_1.png 

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Putting the forecasting timeframe aside, I do think the uplands of Scotland will get to experience the first winter incursion of the season by this time next week. However, further south is likely to be cooler and fresher but with more in the way of brighter weather. If that helps to shift this dull, dank, muggy stuff here at Kent, that'll do me fine.

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GFS certainly paints a cool picture in just over a weekd time, maybe some wintriness away from coasts.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22217.gif 
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2223.gif 
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2221.gif 

Looking quite stormy down the North Sea as well with a bit of a surge and with another batch of high tides approaching, northern and eastern coasts may want to monitor.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2288.gif 

GFS certainly paints a cool picture in just over a weekd time, maybe some wintriness away from coasts.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn22217.gif
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2223.gif
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2221.gif

Looking quite stormy down the North Sea as well with a bit of a surge and with another batch of high tides approaching, northern and eastern coasts may want to monitor.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2288.gif

That's been flagged up a few times now. Reckon it's almost nailed on.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_195_1.png 

True, the signal is still present. London currently awarded with 4 snow row days- more than Aberdeen- is that as unusual as it sound? But Inverness is peppered from the start of the month with up to 14 Ps on one day at the very start of November offering some of the white stuff.

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Short-lived northerly then high pressure arrives from the west bringing frost and fog

Short-lived northerly then high pressure arrives from the west bringing frost and fog

I’m guessing you have not noticed the last several runs that have shown a much stronger northerly at the start of November? If anything the one you posted has just subtly intensified to what it is now. We’ll see shortly if the more potent northerly is still shown around the 2nd of November.

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I’m guessing you have not noticed the last several runs that have shown a much stronger northerly at the start of November? If anything the one you posted has just subtly intensified to what it is now. We’ll see shortly if the more potent northerly is still shown around the 2nd of November.

It looks a wee bit breezy to start November

GFS looks pretty unlikely to me, a very warm early and first half of Nov looks likely.

 

GFS looks pretty unlikely to me, a very warm early and first half of Nov looks likely.

 

It’s started early I see 😊

Could you describe your reasoning behind why the impressively consistant signal for a N/NW flow next week and a more ‘seasonal’ feel (GFS and to an extent ECM) looks ‘pretty unlikely’. 

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GFS looks pretty unlikely to me, a very warm early and first half of Nov looks likely.

 

Based on the model output? 

The GFS and ECM data suggest otherwise and the UKMO output doesn’t reach that far but the Met Office forecast ties in with the former two models’ output. Are you using the tea leaf or I have a hunch model output? 

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GFS looks pretty unlikely to me, a very warm early and first half of Nov looks likely.

 

watch out bergens will eat you

It’s started early I see 😊

Could you describe your reasoning behind why the impressively consistant signal for a N/NW flow next week and a more ‘seasonal’ feel (GFS and to an extent ECM) looks ‘pretty unlikely’. 

Not sure what you mean by 'started early', but I'll give it a go.

GFS seems to forecast poorly the tropical forcing in early November, it just has too much rainfall in the tropical Western Hemisphere and as a result it's very amplified over both N.America and Europe.

ECMWF and GEM (ensembles) seem more reasonable and less biased in their tropical forcing and they are trending towards a warmer outcome for the UK (for the first 10-15 days of Nov).

No certainties as usually with weather, but I think it's more likely that GFS will eventually trend much warmer.

 

Not sure what you mean by 'started early', but I'll give it a go.

GFS seems to forecast poorly the tropical forcing in early November, it just has too much rainfall in the tropical Western Hemisphere and as a result it's very amplified over both N.America and Europe.

ECMWF and GEM (ensembles) seem more reasonable and less biased in their tropical forcing and they are trending towards a warmer outcome for the UK (for the first 10-15 days of Nov).

No certainties as usually with weather, but I think it's more likely that GFS will eventually trend much warmer.

Even allowing for the colder weather in the ECM 00z op run at the start of November I am still failing to see the evidence for a “very warm” first half of November. Could you share the data? 

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Even allowing for the colder weather in the ECM 00z op run at the start of November I am still failing to see the evidence for a “very warm” first half of November. Could you share the data? 

You'll probably have it next week 

I'd actually love a northerly and some nice frosts, but I just thought I should mention that GFS is showing a less likely evolution based on the potential drivers. Also EC op at days 7-10 is less relevant anyway.

These charts with their current tasty FI smell exaclty where we left off last years winter.  Lovely charts appearing, then dying back, then a big flip over to something very wintry, before over the remaining runs to T+0 watering down to light blues/greens smothering the country.

 

I like the whole HP to the north, but after several years of leading to nothing, im going to wait to see snow falling before getting excited proper,

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I like the whole HP to the north, but after several years of leading to nothing, im going to wait to see snow falling before getting excited proper,

Indeed, GFS is already edging that northern plunge to the east and ECM never really believed in it anyway

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=0&ech=204

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Now why does that look familiar?

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