The Weather Outlook

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doctormog
22 October 2017 20:01:02

 

xmas day 93 was the best that I can remember... you must have had a decent first year!

Originally Posted by: bowser 

I certainly did! 

Almost as good as the fabled winter of 2017-18 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Quantum
23 October 2017 08:56:32

 

In the south you mean presumably Q? We had inches of the stuff on the 3rd of October 2004.

For what it’s worth the ECM op run is similiar to the GFS run (not that either are snowy for the record!)

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yeh, I mean Snow in September is a 1 in 10 year event for the Shetland Isles whilst I can't imagine snow in Aberdeen is unbelievably rare in October. The Late October 2012 event saw snow in England albeit not, as far as I'm aware, in central london like 2008.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Brian Gaze
23 October 2017 09:01:18

 

Yeh, I mean Snow in September is a 1 in 10 year event for the Shetland Isles whilst I can't imagine snow in Aberdeen is unbelievably rare in October. The Late October 2012 event saw snow in England albeit not, as far as I'm aware, in central london like 2008.

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

I'm not sure. It snowed here which is 25 miles northwest of central London. 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Sevendust
23 October 2017 09:11:30

I certainly did! 

Almost as good as the fabled winter of 2017-18 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Phil G
23 October 2017 09:18:54
I look forward to this weekend when the clocks go back and we receive charts that 1 hour earlier. For me it signals the start of the winter season and looking for those first elusive signs of something wintry on the horizon.

Appears the start of the month may herald a change to something seasonal. Let's hope the pattern gets stuck in a rut on the colder side.

moomin75
23 October 2017 10:42:19
Very much looking forward to silly season with a promise that I am going to be far more constructive and less of the hyperbole this winter....For what it's worth I have a sneaky feeling that this coming winter will produce a LOT more interest than the last several and will counter the background signals that have been pointing towards another mild one.

Something just feels different this year and although my pattern matching methodology will be kept quiet this year I do feel we are in for a much more interesting winter this time around.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Saint Snow
23 October 2017 11:30:43

Very much looking forward to silly season with a promise that I am going to be far more constructive and less of the hyperbole this winter....For what it's worth I have a sneaky feeling that this coming winter will produce a LOT more interest than the last several and will counter the background signals that have been pointing towards another mild one.

Something just feels different this year and although my pattern matching methodology will be kept quiet this year I do feel we are in for a much more interesting winter this time around.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 

That's close to a ramp, young Moomin...

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Bertwhistle
23 October 2017 11:54:48

The signal for the Arctic plunge is becoming more confident:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=///www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfs/06_240_mslp850.png?cb=494

That looks like 2010 has come early!

Edit: pah! Link won't open. Take a look at Op 240 in the 6z suite.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

moomin75
23 October 2017 14:36:58

 

 

That's close to a ramp, young Moomin...

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

Almost Yes. Because I don't think I've seen Ensembles like this much if at all in the last 3 or 4 years. Even in winter. Really good agreement of something interesting just down the line.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Polar Low
23 October 2017 14:43:30

Yes it it did Brian taken from the G at the time

Parts of south-east England had more than an inch of snow last night while London experienced its first October snowfall in more than 70 years as winter conditions arrived early.

Snow settled on the ground in parts of the capital last night as temperatures dipped below zero. A Met Office spokeswoman said it was London's first October snow since 1934.

For greater south-east of England it was the first October snow since 1974. High Wycombe in Buckinghamshire had 3cm (1.2 inches). One of the coldest temperatures recorded was -4.1C in Benson, Oxfordshire.

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/oct/29/weather-london

 

 

I'm not sure. It snowed here which is 25 miles northwest of central London. 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Brian Gaze
23 October 2017 15:03:05

Yes it it did Brian taken from the G at the time

Parts of south-east England had more than an inch of snow last night while London experienced its first October snowfall in more than 70 years as winter conditions arrived early.

Snow settled on the ground in parts of the capital last night as temperatures dipped below zero. A Met Office spokeswoman said it was London's first October snow since 1934.

For greater south-east of England it was the first October snow since 1974. High Wycombe in Buckinghamshire had 3cm (1.2 inches). One of the coldest temperatures recorded was -4.1C in Benson, Oxfordshire.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/oct/29/weather-london

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

That article refers to 2008, not 2012. I know there was snow in central London in October 2008 because I was working there at the time and took some pictures in Regents Park. You can see them here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1681

 

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Russwirral
23 October 2017 15:14:24

 

That article refers to 2008, not 2012. I know there was snow in central London in October 2008 because I was working there at the time and took some pictures in Regents Park. You can see them here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1681

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

 

Alot of trees still in full leaf there too.

 

just shows how rare an event that was.

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

Polar Low
23 October 2017 15:22:49

Apologies Brian thought you were talking about the later anyway had a look at the met archive nothing noted for the city October 2012

 

 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2012/october

 

 

That article refers to 2008, not 2012. I know there was snow in central London in October 2008 because I was working there at the time and took some pictures in Regents Park. You can see them here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1681

 

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Chunky Pea
23 October 2017 15:25:31

 

Didn't snow fall in some southern counties in late October 2008 Q, say around Halloween? I seem to remember there being quite a bit of discussion about that on this forum around that time.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

There certainly was a chilly flow on the 28th of that month David. 

If I remember correctly, there was snow over here, albeit quite slushy and brief, over much of Ulster & Leinster in particular towards the Hallowe'en period that year. 

Edit: made chart smaller as looked oddly squashed at full size. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Bertwhistle
23 October 2017 16:55:31

Links to the charts won't open so I'll just say that there's a broad swathe of sub minus 5 850s forecast for about 2nd November, with Scandi low pushing in: very unusual to have LP -5 right at the start of the month here with LP so influential. Even 1980's early November chiller was mostly HP driven. This is definitely something to watch.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.

Polar Low
23 October 2017 17:40:59

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Stange that James said that the other day try clear formatting before you start to type just a thought.

Links to the charts won't open so I'll just say that there's a broad swathe of sub minus 5 850s forecast for about 2nd November, with Scandi low pushing in: very unusual to have LP -5 right at the start of the month here with LP so influential. Even 1980's early November chiller was mostly HP driven. This is definitely something to watch.

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

Polar Low
23 October 2017 17:47:11

Nah looks better here cool

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2008/archivesnh-2008-10-28-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2008/archivesnh-2008-10-28-0-1.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2008/archivesnh-2008-10-28-0-2.png

 

 

 

 

There certainly was a chilly flow on the 28th of that month David. 

If I remember correctly, there was snow over here, albeit quite slushy and brief, over much of Ulster & Leinster in particular towards the Hallowe'en period that year. 

Edit: made chart smaller as looked oddly squashed at full size. 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Brian Gaze
23 October 2017 18:00:25

This could be winter. By that I don't mean a spell of wintry weather, I mean it could be our winter! One can never tell but there are a number of runs bringing the cold air into the south next week!

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Gavin D
23 October 2017 19:18:31

ECM v GFS let the battle commense

 

ECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.436ed0d9664c8cbcd2ebc0f8d80df051.pngECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.0591775a7ef097dc65a63ec138b45794.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.29586199c7f7f12d267e50ae27cf5dbd.png

GFSOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.6d939eafd202cec9bdc5bcedbf1abf86.pngGFSOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.e2055426f5a5cd362dcfed12fab859cb.pngGFSOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.3040bdee1787cf17764c4ec55903203e.png

 

doctormog
23 October 2017 20:14:19
Actually it’s more ECM op run against: the GFS op run, ECM ensemble mean and GEM op run. At this stage it is all rather academic but as the 00z ECM also showed an GFS type scenario the ECM 12z op run is very much in the minority. So no, it’s not as simple as GFS v ECM.

Here are the ECM 00z op run at 240hr and ECM 12z mean at 240hrs respectively.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png 

Some form of northerly incursion looks like the most likely outcome based on current evidence. How cool, extensive or widespread is too difficult to say at the moment (and of course there are all the usual caveats given the timescale).

A cool start to November is more probable than a mild one based on today’s output.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

ballamar
23 October 2017 20:35:03

Could be similar to Nov 1985 spell?

Gooner
23 October 2017 21:23:24

This year looks more interesting already lol

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



Gooner
24 October 2017 06:07:25

November looks like starting on a chilly note 

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



moomin75
24 October 2017 07:31:04

This year looks more interesting already lol

Originally Posted by: Gooner 

Indeed Marcus. Everything just looks and feels different already. I think we are in for an exciting season of model watching and it could be about to start.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

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