doctormog
Friday, October 27, 2017 11:13:52 AM

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Yes quite. I just thought maybe one day just for once one - that the GFS will forecast a northerly and keep it and for this to turn out it correctly and that we will see a northerly in autumn or winter.


The problem has always been HP rising to our south perhaps?!



I wonder how many times I will have to point out that some for me of northerly looks likely both on Sunday and on the 2nd before the message sinks in.  No one (that I know of) was stating the GFS’s more extreme scenarios were the most likely outcomes?


To comb8ne the most recent data into one chart, here are the ensemble mean data for Sunday and the 2nd Nov respectively from the 06z GFS run:


 http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-48.png?6


http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-150.png?6 


Both show a predominantly northerly quarter to the flow. I suspect the individual members will show all sorts if I trawl through them.


Two very unlikely scenarios for these two time points would below level snow and very mild weather. Beyond that, who knows.


P.S. I also very much agree with Rob’s post above!


doctormog
Friday, October 27, 2017 11:21:33 AM
And just for fun to highlight the futility of putting much store in charts even 6 days away. Here are some of the 06z GFS options

1http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-1-1-156.png?6 
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-6-1-150.png 
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-7-1-150.png 
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-9-1-150.png 
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-10-1-150.png 

I hope people get the point (and is after having looked at fewer than half the ensemble charts for that date). If I was a forecaster I would go for a slack northerly flow, feeling fresher with a small risk of showers (wintry in mountaintops in Scotland) with a large caveat that things could change at this time scale. In short most people may not even notice...but give it a few days before being confident about any one scenario!
Brian Gaze
Friday, October 27, 2017 4:30:42 PM

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


I'm not going to purvey my annoying brand of doom and gloom this winter as I value my membership here....but I will say that an early



Very wise. I've.not deleted an account for a few weeks and am getting itchy fingers. UIA seems more promising at the moment but I am keeping a close tab on things here.


Brian Gaze
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Gavin D
Friday, October 27, 2017 4:49:05 PM

UKMO has shifted that low further east compared to the 00z thus we have a much lighter northwesterly 


doctormog
Friday, October 27, 2017 5:01:26 PM

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


UKMO has shifted that low further east compared to the 00z thus we have a much lighter northwesterly 




Except that’s not a like for like comparison. You would need to compare the 144hr 00z chart with a 132hr 12z one. The low is moving eastwards and will therefore be “12hrs further east” 12hrs later (which may be what is shown above).


Solar Cycles
Friday, October 27, 2017 5:40:56 PM

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


Very wise. I've.not deleted an account for a few weeks and am getting itchy fingers. UIA seems more promising at the moment but I am keeping a close tab on things here.


Dont venture into the climate thread then. 😂😂😂

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Friday, October 27, 2017 9:17:23 PM

The Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Hadley Cells and the Rossby Waves, are all doing very well indeed.  It is often a case that High Pressure from the SE, South and SW often controls our weather sequence we have to wait until mid December that is when the Azores High weakens.


So much High Pressure And so much cold pooling but for the UK we end up just checking the ducks are able to wander around and we carry on not seeing any exceptional cold snowy weather.


N. Ireland, Wales and N England plus Scotland will have to wait until we get to Mid-November et all this Autumn to imagine any chance of winter weather coming into the 3-5 day range.


I keep checking the charts, Greenland and the NE Canada and Arctic Svalbard and Iceland to Central Norwegian Sea has been often seeing numerous cold and wintry Low Pressures and cold pooling, Semi-Polar Vortex setting up in last few weeks, this cold air gets to Iceland and persists in N and NE Canada and Greenland a lot, and the Mid Lattitude High’s are often locates in West and NW Atlantic as well as across SW South Central UK West Europe, with N and NE N Europe away from the UK currently expected to see a very cold Low Pressure NNW SE cold flow of cold arctic Sea air migrating to East and NE and N Central Europe.  But Milder weather returns to West and N Central Europe as Low Pressure moves east on Wednesday Thursday from Iceland through North Sea and Low Countries and Denmark NW Germany.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Friday, October 27, 2017 9:28:06 PM

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Except that’s not a like for like comparison. You would need to compare the 144hr 00z chart with a 132hr 12z one. The low is moving eastwards and will therefore be “12hrs further east” 12hrs later (which may be what is shown above).



 Yeah Michael I can make sense of that.


Very much to the point!.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
nsrobins
Saturday, October 28, 2017 8:07:12 AM

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


To comb8ne the most recent data into one chart, here are the ensemble mean data for Sunday and the 2nd Nov respectively from the 06z GFS run:



And such is the challenge of reality v perception, and the propensity to use whichever mode of output that suits. I’m as guilty of anyone of choosing a stunning operational run when it fits the agenda, whilst accepting that discrete OP runs at range are unlikely to verify. The mean is a far better tool with trends, and I’m increasingly using it to define confidence from 5 days out. 


The debate about median, mode and clustering can wait a bit 😉


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
Saturday, October 28, 2017 8:28:19 AM

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


And such is the challenge of reality v perception, and the propensity to use whichever mode of output that suits. I’m as guilty of anyone of choosing a stunning operational run when it fits the agenda, whilst accepting that discrete OP runs at range are unlikely to verify. The mean is a far better tool with trends, and I’m increasingly using it to define confidence from 5 days out. 


The debate about median, mode and clustering can wait a bit 😉



Oh go on, you know you want to 


Zubzero
Saturday, October 28, 2017 8:39:06 PM

You got to laugh  (Or cry 


As soon as the approach to the silly season begins you see chart's like this starting to appear 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017102812/ECM1-240.GIF?28-0  

David M Porter
Sunday, October 29, 2017 12:10:44 AM

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


You got to laugh  (Or cry 


As soon as the approach to the silly season begins you see chart's like this starting to appear 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017102812/ECM1-240.GIF?28-0  



I wouldn't worry too much tbh. Day 10 charts seem to have been rather unrealible for months now in my experience and only if that chart get into the much more reliable timeframe unchanged will I start to become remotely concerned.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, October 29, 2017 6:42:36 AM

Originally Posted by: Zubzero 


You got to laugh  (Or cry 


As soon as the approach to the silly season begins you see chart's like this starting to appear 


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017102812/ECM1-240.GIF?28-0  



You could always cheer yourself up by looking at


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=312&mode=0&carte=


but, as David says, I wouldn't advise holding your breath.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
nsrobins
Sunday, October 29, 2017 12:28:19 PM
Mean of GFS ENS bang on the average going into mid-Nov. Looks average to me!
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Charmhills
Sunday, October 29, 2017 12:34:16 PM

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Mean of GFS ENS bang on the average going into mid-Nov. Looks average to me!


And the average can feel quite cold at this time of year when low dew points get involved, strong winds and rain.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Stormchaser
Sunday, October 29, 2017 6:49:49 PM

 


It sure does look benign as a whole for the next 7-10 days across most of the UK. Pretty dry with that - particularly considering that 99% of the rain across S. England comes from a quite vigorous (rainfall-wise) wave that the GFS 12z has moving across next Sunday when other models have it either weaker, further south, or both.


Impressive contrast in far-W. Scotland though, as the moist TM airflow on the NW flank of the high remains quasi-stationary for 2-3 days.


That these generally sluggish Atlantic troughs are occurring with a typical-strength polar vortex for the time of year demonstrates how large areas of poleward-moving anomalously warm air are messing with the thermal winds (jet stream) and forcing some meridionality during what would usually be a predominantly zonal period. With any luck this conflict with what the polar vortex would rather have taking place will have consequences that disrupt the vortex down the line.


I'm not going to give any idea when that might be, as for one thing it's still a bit too early in my book to be playing that game .


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Hungry Tiger
Sunday, October 29, 2017 8:06:22 PM

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


 


It sure does look benign as a whole for the next 7-10 days across most of the UK. Pretty dry with that - particularly considering that 99% of the rain across S. England comes from a quite vigorous (rainfall-wise) wave that the GFS 12z has moving across next Sunday when other models have it either weaker, further south, or both.


Impressive contrast in far-W. Scotland though, as the moist TM airflow on the NW flank of the high remains quasi-stationary for 2-3 days.


That these generally sluggish Atlantic troughs are occurring with a typical-strength polar vortex for the time of year demonstrates how large areas of poleward-moving anomalously warm air are messing with the thermal winds (jet stream) and forcing some meridionality during what would usually be a predominantly zonal period. With any luck this conflict with what the polar vortex would rather have taking place will have consequences that disrupt the vortex down the line.


I'm not going to give any idea when that might be, as for one thing it's still a bit too early in my book to be playing that game .



Great post and commentary there. I think I know what you're alluding to.


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nsrobins
Monday, October 30, 2017 12:22:36 AM

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger 


 


Great post and commentary there. I think I know what you're alluding to.



Aspirations tempered by analogues. It’s all part of this model-watching period as we run into the silly season.


Good post as always from SC.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
Tuesday, October 31, 2017 7:48:08 AM

Looks like a traditional chilly Guy Fawkes night


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=120&carte=1021


picked up by GFS 10 days ago though at that stage (also traditionally for GFS) a bit overcooked.


Otherwise on the dry side


http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 


though with a lot of antucyclonic weather at least in the south we should be expecting frost and fog for the first half of November


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Solar Cycles
Tuesday, October 31, 2017 11:28:14 AM

Can’t post link but the 06z isn’t without interest. 


 


 

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