If something changed in the 70s then I’m all for change - the winters of 77/78, 78/79 and 81/82 were brilliant down here.

Just read Gavin Ps forecast. Seems like cold then mild and then cooler and then mild.

Nothing to get excited about.

I agree HT; classic Atlantic ridge-trough, zero 850s-5 850s stuff. Could be quite manky, even in the south.

GFS picked up the present cold-ish spell 10 days out, though in true GFS fashion they overcooked it (or should that be underfroze?)

Let's see how well they do with this one for 16 Nov

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=276&mode=0&carte=

Until then the major models agree on anticyclonic conditions, so frost and fog - maybe a little snow over the Scottish mountains, e.g.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

It seems the familiar pattern in modern times continues again this season -  of blocking unable to take hold in a favourable location for any length of time

The arpege model is offering subzero, even this far south, early tomorrow morning.

Check out the FI in the 12z GFS op: it's as juicy as a Cantabrian peach. Look at the pptn type! (Can't get the link sadly, so be quick- in case it...well... you know.

We're only at the 5th of November Beast- too early to be making any judgements yet IMO.

It's worth remembering what November '09 was like throughout, yet the setp-up we had for the duration of that month bore virtually no resemblance to the pattern that dominated the 09/10 winter.

Polar view 5 Nov. 2009, polar vortex under heavy attack from Asia and split left to right (yippee!):

5 Nov. 2015 ( a random lousy winter), polar vortex in full swing (uurgh):

Today - polar vortex a mess, split from ... well. just split:

As Solar Cycles says, at the very least this is going to be giving us some interesting charts to look at in the coming weeks. 

Quite like this chart which shows signs of good blocking out to the North East.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.gif 

I find that map format misleading: that 'block' is the same distance from our shores as Newfoundland.

CreweCold

Usually with the sort of charts on offer in the circa day 10 timeframe, I'd be getting a bit giddy. That is one huge Siberian HP and is usually a harbinger of all things winter. However, I have a nagging feeling we'll see the 'pretty patterns' of the progged shredded vortex dry up pretty sharpish as we head towards December. We need to see warmings of the strat if we're to prevent the upper strat uniting with the trop to bring the usual December dirge.

Unfortunately there is little sign of this at the moment. So those getting carried away may want to keep their excitement in check. It's pertinent to note that most of the 'legendary' years kicked of with a Canadian warming early doors...

Last year served as a lesson to us all just how quickly the trop vortex can ramp up once zonal winds increase.

Looks as if the Alps may be getting some early snow for once

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

I know miles off unlikely but very nice chart - 2010 anyone 😀

Wow. Is that an example of the famous Omega block - one of the holy grails for those looking for cold and snow in winter?

Plenty of evidence of the Greenland High there. That may have implications.

Another remarkable FI here...

Unlike past years though - i refuse to get carried away.  The models of recent years have been really good at saying what we could have had.  whilst the actual weather delivers stuff nothing like FI.

The way the WAA pushes due north to set up that block is quite unusual. It’s an indicator of a proper block because there’s no evidence of the jet putting pressure on the WAA as it balloons up and creates the upper heights.

If you were picky you’d like to see lower heights over the Azores but it’s an interesting evolution.

always in October/November (especially first three weeks) - the micro picture isn't nearly as relevant as the macro for those looking ahead to winter proper.