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I wouldn't put your money on ECM if I was you, it's not been the most reliable model in recent years . I'm not saying GFS is right but ECM has had it's comical moments .
in saying that far too early for me to get excited by charts
GFS still going with a noticeable cool down as we head in to November - regardless of the specifics it's done well picking up the change to cooler weather. There's a suggestion both on GFS and ECM of repeated brief northerlies - be unusual if that does happen. Usually after the first one the pattern flattens out. Tis at least interesting though :-)
Yes you’re right. A trend to cooler conditions is still evident on the charts with winds from a northerly quarter. A bit less intense than yesterday but hardly a surprise. At least it will feel more like mid to late autumn.
EMS for Loughborough, more of a seasonal, chilly outlook despite a couple of milder bumps along the way.
Yes it's a similar picture down here. So far we've not had the heating on and only lit the woodburner twice, for atmosphere rather than needing the warmth. But looking at that graph the log pile might be seeing some action come November!
Models are pointing at a much drier, and frosty affair for north west Britain.Very seasonal and a good start to the winter.
Yes nice and seasonal at last .
Even allowing for the colder weather in the ECM 00z op run at the start of November I am still failing to see the evidence for a “very warm” first half of November. Could you share the data?
Totally agree , its mad statements like this that wind people up, of course it depends on someone's version of v warm ?
It looks like a chilly start to November
Totally agree , its mad statements like this that wind people up, of course it depends on someone's version of v warm ? It looks like a chilly start to November
Edit. EVEN in Witney 😁😀😂
Agree Marcus. A chilly and seasonal start to November and some interesting background signals too. I get a gut feeling that an interesting model watching season lies ahead. Edit. EVEN in Witney 😁😀😂
Agree Marcus. A chilly and seasonal start to November and some interesting background signals too. I get a gut feeling that an interesting model watching season lies ahead.
I am hoping for something decent this season....................even in your neck of the woods
You'll probably have it next week I'd actually love a northerly and some nice frosts, but I just thought I should mention that GFS is showing a less likely evolution based on the potential drivers. Also EC op at days 7-10 is less relevant anyway.
You'll probably have it next week
I'd actually love a northerly and some nice frosts, but I just thought I should mention that GFS is showing a less likely evolution based on the potential drivers. Also EC op at days 7-10 is less relevant anyway.
But the majority of Ps in the ENS go cold:
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=100
On 2nd, the warmest 850 out of the 21 (inc.control) is only about +3. The clustering shows strong agreement.
A cool down on the ECM ensemble for London, but nothing requiring more than an extra jumper, I'd say. Should start to get chillier overnight though:
Even a fortnight out only a couple of the 50-odd perturbations scrape a frost.
Might be different further north though.
Looks like next things will get interesting next week weather wise. - But re the models- after so many downgrades and flips last Winter - are they that reliable?! I think not. I am trying not to get too obsessed looking at the models this year like previous years. Just hope this northerly will be proved right. It was 20c earlier here in Exeter which is truly remarkable for end of October as is the sun.I have a friend in Minsk - Saw their first snow of the winter today & much earlier than usual.
When did we last see a northerly beginning of November!?I have taken a break from looking at the GFS ENSEMBLES for 6 months.At least the LP is coming down from Greenland /Iceland and NOT coming up from the Azores or mid Atlantic etc. Definitely seeing a change in the direction of our low pressure systems commencing this weekend - Well Hurricane /storm Opehlia is an exception of course. - Even that is rare as it came all the way up from the Azores & Canary islands. - What is absent so far this autumn is our normal deep (Cyclogenesis) zonal Atlantic depressions that deepen as they cross the Atlantic and coming in and go SW to NE across the country, bringing in SW winds and rain.Let's hope this pattern stays into December. Fingers crossed.
When did we last see a northerly beginning of November!?
I don’t think we have since 2016 as far as I recall.
November had a wintry spell at the start last year.We had at least two brief snowfalls especially higher up.
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November had a wintry spell at the start last year.We had at least two brief snowfalls especially higher up.10thIMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page 18thIMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
Very nice pictures four! Thanks for sharing them! I remember a brief Northerly spell in November 2014 in otherwise a mild wet month. No snow here of course (it's Lowestoft), but it was noted for high frequency of heavy, thundery showers and occasional deep Cb type hail produced from the still, warm North Sea. Nice addition to the fireworks, too. Maximum air temperature was 9 C.
So a chill for eastern areas this weekend and settled for a while thereafter. What strikes me about current charts is the weak Atlantic, with lower then normal SLP around the Azores a frequent occurance.
Seems to be signs of more blocking to our NW later on. Also bear in mind there is strong model agreement on the first major cold air outbreak across the northern US and Canada in around 7-10 days time which could have implications.
Worth keeping an eye on.