well well well to the 18Z  Pub run or Q's trendsetter? 

Its certainly an interesting run to FI. For a brief moment at 324h we have a feed directly from siberia. If that low in scandi was just a little further south it would be a frigid feed. Academic of course, but nice to see that if the atlantic does calm down our siberian friend won't let us down? 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2014/02/05/basis18/ukuk/rart/14021112_2_0518.gif

JFF  Leading edge snow early in the week

Drier weather would be welcome yes, but I'm not so sure about frost? With so much water in the ground etc, a potential for lots more damage if it freezes and expands?

Decent ana warm front or warm occluded front, they always deliever even at high 850s. The biggest problem would be the pennines weakening the integrity of the front and turning it to rain on the eastern side. 

I think that is what is commonly known as sod's law, Maunder.

Hardly a dry chart either

Indeed, the UKMO run is worse than yesterday with a low early next week modelled deeper with a intense chunk of the PV stuck to the west of Ireland.

In FI it's more of the same as well, absolutely no change and zero sign of any dry weather.

Haven't looked today but the ensembles for Aberdeen yesterday were incredibly flat right out to 384! No one can say there isn't any consistency, I don't think I've ever seen ensembles so tightly clustered throughout a run.

I am lucky the landscape of Cumbria can cope with this rain it was built for it, but conditions in Southern England are becoming desperate, I feel very sorry for the poor buggers living on the south coast.

Andy

Good morning folks. Here is todays look at the midnight releases of output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 6th 2014, taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

All models show Low pressure filling to the North of the UK with another system moving up across Southern Britain later today and clearing out into the North Sea tonight. Sunshine and showers over the North today but heavy rain will again affect the South and East and will not clear until after midnight tonight. it will though be much less windy today. Tomorrow and the weekend sees a showery period tomorrow being replaced by another active Low pressure bringing a sequence of events similar to yesterday with gales and heavy rain replaced by showers over the weekend. The rain will be heavy and the gales severe for further damage in places. Through the weekend it will feel cold and some of the showers could turn to snow over the hills though amounts away from the highest ground should not be problematic.

GFS then shows next week as very unsettled yet again with further heavy rain and showers at times moving steadily West to East off the Atlantic and giving further snow over the hills. Later in this morning's operational run a change to High pressure finally arrives with drier or dry weather likely with a welcome respite for flood afflicted areas though occasional rain is still possible towards the NW at times in temperatures rather chilly with some frost at night.

The GFS Ensembles show average temperatures prevailing over the two week period with further heavy rain at times though rainfall amounts are trending towards lessening somewhat later.

UKMO this morning shows yet another deep Low swinging NE over the UK next Tuesday with yet another spell of heavy rain and gales with a sunshine and squally shower mix towards midweek in a strong Westerly flow. However one cannot fail to notice yet another depression in the Western Atlantic already lying in wait to the far SW of Britain to affect the UK soon after midweek.

GEM is very depressing again this morning with Low pressure totally dominant with small disturbances within the main Low complex centred near Britain keeping the risk of heavy rain and showers going.

NAVGEM shows little change to the pattern we have become accustomed too with further Low pressure powered by a main Low pressure complex to the North with further heavy rain and showers to come.

ECM today shows no let up in the procession of Low pressure piling in from the SW with further spells of heavy rain alternating with blustery and very strong winds and blustery showers.

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little or no change to the pattern at Day 9 and 1O with the Jet flow well to the South with Low pressure likely to be just to or over the North of the UK with a UK based trough indicating the continuing prospect of further rain at times in average temperatures and winds between South and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The Jet Stream shows an unrelenting path East across the Atlantic to the South of the UK. The flow is already strong and strengthens further at times which looks like maintaining the feed of deep depressions and heavy rain for the reliable future. Clutching at straws there are some hints of the flow moving slowly North late in the run but we have to remember this is the GFS prediction and is not a cross model prediction.

In Summary this morning the weather remains extremely unsettled and often wet with heavy rain at times in a continuing feed of Low pressure areas moving across the UK from off the Atlantic. Strong winds will also be a feature at times giving it's own problems for some and in addition it may be cold enough at times for some snowfall, especially on Northern hills though in the grand scheme of things this is of little consequence in comparison to the other major disruption down in the SW currently. GFS does hint at a slow shift north of the Jet Flow in Week 2 possibly allowing less rainfall in the South over the week after next but such improvements look very tentative again this morning and will need to be supported by the other longer term models from GEM and ECM when it falls within their time restraints before we can begin to become more confident on a possible change.

I think you'll find frost is welcomed by farmers this time of year. Kills the bugs, and the freeze \ thaw breaks up the soil nicely.

Drier weather would be welcome yes, but I'm not so sure about frost? With so much water in the ground etc, a potential for lots more damage if it freezes and expands?