January - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/52791/cfs-1-3-2014_cqc1.png

 

Summer 2013 will be remembered extremely fondly should todays output to another settled and very warm period of weather verify.

 

It will be me if it gives me a second crack at getting about 500 tomatoes to ripen! 

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January - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/52791/cfs-1-3-2014_cqc1.png

 

This link shows March (Mars) on top left. As it's march, I'd rather not know - but if you can dig up a similar chart for January it'd be great

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High pressure set to dominate from the 20th if we can get the High in the right place the end of August could be truly scorchio.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

I am liking the look of that, setting up nicely for my hols in the last week of August.

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January - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/52791/cfs-1-3-2014_cqc1.png

 

This link shows March (Mars) on top left. As it's march, I'd rather not know - but if you can dig up a similar chart for January it'd be great

 

January is even colder

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=4&mode=1&carte=0&run=10

 

 

 

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January - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/52791/cfs-1-3-2014_cqc1.png

 

This link shows March (Mars) on top left. As it's march, I'd rather not know - but if you can dig up a similar chart for January it'd be great

 

January is even colder

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=4&mode=1&carte=0&run=10

 

 

 

Yeah, I somehow copied the wrong link  January looks pretty similar to March though!

January - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/52791/cfs-1-3-2014_cqc1.png

 

This link shows March (Mars) on top left. As it's march, I'd rather not know - but if you can dig up a similar chart for January it'd be great

 

January is even colder

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=4&mode=1&carte=0&run=10

 

 

 

 

Indeed, a sub-zero month is being modelled!!  ..... Enough to excite YD out of his summer hibernation (or should that be aestasation)....  

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=4&code=0&carte=0&mode=7&run=10

 

Back to the nearer future, nothing overly exciting in the short term.... perhaps some heat in the latter stages of the ECM, but after July's heat, personally I'm satisfied with how this summer has/is turning out...

Andrew

 

 

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Don't forget for the weeks ahead

Atlantic Hurricane Season... if it does fire up, as predicted by many

Will have an effect... and the models are not good at factoring in obviously, because it's not known,

how many tropical storms / hurricanes will develop, and what their tracks will be

 

It does impact Uk weather though, with all that energy often directed into the Atlantic.

Sometimes, even the remnants themselves, head towards the Uk

Here's todays video update;

Next 8-10 Days + September + January 2014

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A rather eclectic mish-mash of stuff.

 

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Here's todays video update;

Next 8-10 Days + September + January 2014

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A rather eclectic mish-mash of stuff.

 

 Cheers Gav

GFS 12z continues the theme for next week 🤤 👍

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GFS 12z continues the theme for next week

Much improved than the 6z! Think northern areas may have to be a little more patient but hopefully a fine spell coming up for all, and much more interesting that the current weather!

GFS 12z continues the theme for next week

Much improved than the 6z! Think northern areas may have to be a little more patient but hopefully a fine spell coming up for all, and much more interesting that the current weather!

Very nice this coming Sunday as the HP build in finally after a 2 weeks of boring weather lately. 

ok - the much maligned EC 32 Day broadscale flow forecast is showing strong signal for high pressure dominated period - starting next week in the south and becoming country wide for week commencing 26th August. High drifts northwards into the first week of September but still dominating the north at least. If this is a correct signal for the broadscale - it would imply the chance of some fine and very warm late summer weather. Will be an interesting test of the EC 32 day - given the mistrust that some have for it. Lets see what happens...:-)

Bad news as that has been a terrible model forecast for most of this year.  Lets hope its right for once.

It would be useful to put some evidence behind this. Most long range models are pretty marginal. As it happens ECM 32 suggested a less settled start to August (which we got) and are suggesting a more settled end to August (which has certainly got support from other models). It would be astonishing if any long range model was consistently right (and none of them claim that sort of accuracy or anything close), but I'm not convinced by the singling out of the ECM 32 day model. In comparison to what? GFS FI, CFS.

GFS 12z continues the theme for next week

Much improved than the 6z! Think northern areas may have to be a little more patient but hopefully a fine spell coming up for all, and much more interesting that the current weather!

Very nice this coming Sunday as the HP build in finally after a 2 weeks of boring weather lately. 

Sunday looks crap.

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Here's todays video update;

Next 8-10 Days + September + January 2014

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A rather eclectic mish-mash of stuff.

 

 Cheers Gav

I wasn't that pleased with this one to be honest, but thanks very much.

12z continues the idea from recent runs, Re. high pressure building in for the Bank Holiday weekend, but it's a lot cooler than last nights heatfest - Still very plesent though.

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Sunday looks crap.

must take a lot of insight to come up with that

Not a lot of developments to report really, with the theme of a storm to the NW on Saturday bringing a windy spell, still feeling warm in the SE on Saturday before a notably fresher Sunday with showers on a NW wind.

Monday looks like one of those bright, fresh days as the storm clears away and high pressure builds in from the SW. Sunday night could turn notably chilly across some parts.

As the HP drifts east, warmer air arrives from Tuesday - ECM and GFS agree on this. UKMO's a little less convincing but still seems to be headed the right way. If a small trough to the west was to dig south a bit, a notable plume could emerge. GFS is close to that tonight, while ECM looks less favourable for that as of T+168.

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Sunday looks crap.
must take a lot of insight to come up with that

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Insight? Nah, need not applied. It's quite obvious Sunday is going to be nasty. Not sure how Jires came to that conclusion unless he means the following weekend..?

Sunday looks crap.
must take a lot of insight to come up with that

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Insight? Nah, need not applied. It's quite obvious Sunday is going to be nasty. Not sure how Jires came to that conclusion unless he means the following weekend..?

Assume he must have meant the following weekend.

Bledur, I think there's still a thread in the library forum which gives a basic insight into reading the models 😄


Edit: there is indeed. Follow this link:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_topics5_Library.aspx 

Then look for threads about model interpretation (1 and 2) Hope that helps [sn_smile]

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