Not bad at all from ECM, hopefully it will last well into September  http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/ecm/216_mslp500.png?cb=124

Thanks for that matty good link some good post's on there

Good morning. Here is the latest report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday August 14th 2013. Sorry there was no report last night. I am intermittently without internet while my equipment is being upgraded. Sorry for that.

Anyway, all models show a SW flow developing across the UK which is inherently warm and humid. It will carry a lot of cloud across the UK and with weak warm fronts in the flow the chance of some rain or drizzle is quite high. A few bright and sunny intervals could develop in the lee of the hills. Through Thursday a few sharp showers could develop in the East before a cold front crosses East on Friday with rain for all followed by fresher and cooler conditions. The weekend then sees a deep Low cross East to the North with wind and rain sweeping East through all parts later Saturday followed by sunshine and windy conditions on Sunday with showers in the North.

GFS then shows steady improvements next week as High pressure builds from the SW across the UK with fine and warm conditions developing with some sunny spells for all. A UK based High pressure is then shown for some considerable time before the High declines and allows Atlantic fronts and depressions to move in from the West by the end of the run with a return to cooler conditions with some rain.

The GFS Ensembles show good support for a strong rise in temperatures next week with mostly dry weather in tow too as High pressure takes control from the SW. Slightly more changeable weather remains in the North with some rain at times shown by some members. There is a wide spread between members North and South from the onset of the milder phase next week showing some uncertainty as to the extent of the warmth depth and spread across the UK.

The Jet Stream shows a west to East flow across the UK for the coming week before it weakens and breaks up with the main axis shifting North of the UK later in the run.

UKMO today shows High pressure moving NE towards the English Channel by Tuesday of next week replacing the cool and blustery wind of Monday with warmer and more settled weather arriving across the South.

GEM today also shows an improvement next week but more so for the South than the North as High pressure is held at more Southerly latitudes today keeping the risk of Low pressure and fronts running across the North at times with a cooler NW flow toppling down over the UK late in the run.

NAVGEM also shows High pressure migrating towards the UK next week but never quite crossing the UK to tap us into any Continental feed. Instead any warmth and sunshine is held across the South with the North much slower to see the benefits of the High as it remains positioned SW of Ireland at the end of the run.

ECM though is good for warmth lovers this morning as it builds very warm and humid air NE early next week. There is a spoiler cutoff Low to get rid of first with potential thundery showers in humid air up to midweek. thereafter the stage is set for a spell of very warm and sunny weather with light winds which seems likely to extend to the North too.

In Summary today the weather remains set to improve next week. Improvements will be slow in the North and some output shows little improvement at all their as they build High pressure too far South. However, ECM and GFS are excellent for a period of very warm and sunny weather developing for all areas through the second half of next week and beyond. Apart from the unsettled and windy phase at the weekend there is little sign of any appreciable rainfall of note across the UK within today's outputs.

Thanks for that matty good link some good post's on there

Welcome I forget we have that place sometimes.

Yes! Thank you Matty I also keep forgetting to refer to the Library

GFS ensembles look very good for a long settled warm/hot spell

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m7.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m9.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m12.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m16.html

As do the ECM ensembles. Looks similar to the July spell to me.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

Both the ECM and GFS 00z op runs both take that little LP swiftly NE early next week, GFS then sweeping it on through with the ridge returning from behind while ECM has it stalling and fizzling out as the ridge swallows it up. The consensus is on a run of often fine and warm weather starting early next week, but not without it's spanners in the works.

...but what if that LP was to dig further to our SW, with the jet looping more sharply? Well...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-1-180.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-0-192.png?0

...then we'd be looking at a serious plume!

This explains the huge spread in the GEFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Am I expecting the models to correct towards that? Not as such - it could just as easily be corrected NW so that it has minimal impact on our weather. It does make for an interesting possibility though, which is why I've had a look into it this morning

Both the ECM and GFS 00z op runs both take that little LP swiftly NE early next week, GFS then sweeping it on through with the ridge returning from behind while ECM has it stalling and fizzling out as the ridge swallows it up. The consensus is on a run of often fine and warm weather starting early next week, but not without it's spanners in the works.

...but what if that LP was to dig further to our SW, with the jet looping more sharply? Well...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-1-180.png?0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-4-0-192.png?0

...then we'd be looking at a serious plume!

This explains the huge spread in the GEFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Am I expecting the models to correct towards that? Not as such - it could just as easily be corrected NW so that it has minimal impact on our weather. It does make for an interesting possibility though, which is why I've had a look into it this morning

Not too far away either. I like the look of that plume. What a summer this will have been if this spell happens.

12z GFS op is gorgeous for next week and well beyond, even for northern areas

Indeed it is. 

After last night feeling like the first nip of autumn in the air it is nice to see more warmth on the horizon. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3601.png

Massive belt of HP there.

12z GFS op is gorgeous for next week and well beyond, even for northern areas

Could be a repeat of July if it happens like that- let's hope so!

12z GFS op is gorgeous for next week and well beyond, even for northern areas

Could be a repeat of July if it happens like that- let's hope so!

It does look good, shame the schools up here will all be back by then but to be fair cmpared with recent years the summer has been great throughout. Even the poorer weeks have been decent.

The UKMO 12z is not bad but not as good as the GFS however I would tend to favour the former as it is not dissimilar to the ECM mean outlook from the 00z run. Warm, settled and summery seems to be way the mid term is looking. Long may it continue.

The models are starting to firm up on the idea of a marked ridge of high pressure locking in across the UK and gradually drifting NE. With a trough somewhere over Iberia, there's the potential for a plume of heat to become locked into place just as the GFS 12z op run shows in FI.

I suspect that the 2m temps shown are well off the mark i.e. even further than usual - it could be that it anticipates a generally more cloudy setup than July's heatwave, but hasn't got anywhere near the resolution required to pick out local variations in cloud cover that could see temps rocketing in some places.

Looking at the ECM run out to 168 hours, this ridge does feel a lot like the July one in terms of it's development in conjunction with LP well to the NW and the jet heading well north of the UK. The one notable difference is that the favoured location for it setting up shop is a bit further east this time - a little more risky in terms of stability, but with the chance of scoring some noteworthy heat.

Good evening. Here is the latest report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday August 14th 2013.

All models show a moist SW flow over the UK with a complex system of troughs moving slowly NE across the UK. There will be plenty of cloud with occasional outbreaks of rain or sharp showers across the UK tonight and tomorrow with a cold front moving SE over the UK tomorrow night and Friday with a spell of heavy rain spreading down across all areas clearing the SE late on Friday. With cooler and fresher air blowing from a Westerly point the next depression will be winding up to the NW on it's way East to the North of Scotland. Troughs will cross the UK with rain and strong winds for all before clearer, cool and windy weather will spread across all areas on Sunday.

GFS brings High pressure up from the SW early next week with fine weather in the South from Monday but rather slower to reach the North as a filling and shallow Low drifts cross with some showers on Tuesday. By midweek all areas settle into a spell of warm and settled weather with sunny spells. High pressure is then shown to maintain it's grip over the UK weather for the rest of the run moving slowly to the NE of the UK. Temperatures would climb easily to the mid 20's and above in days of plenty of sunshine and light winds with the chance of rain across Britain becoming quite small away from a few thundery showers in the SW.

The GFS Ensembles show that the operational was once more on top of the tree with regard to temperatures in the latter half of the run with most other members showing a more moderate approach to warmth next week. There will be little if any rain over the South with High pressure the dominant force.

The Jet Stream shows the flow streaming East over the Atlantic and he UK before it becomes more erratic next week as it's general trend is for it to migrate further North with time.

UKMO tonight has High pressure building up from the SW strongly early next week with increasingly fine, dry and warm weather pushing North and East over the UK.

GEM shows High pressure building up from the South early next week to cover most Southern areas for the rest of the week. In the North things will be a little less keen to settle down as a Westerly flow remains resilient with a little rain here and there right out to the weekend.

NAVGEM has an elongated area of High pressure stretching across the UK next week with fine and settled weather for all with variable cloud cover in the North with the most lengthy sunny spells in the South.

ECM shows a good spell of fine, warm and later very warm weather as High pressure moves gently East across the UK. With light winds and plenty of sunshine all areas will feel very pleasant following the indifferent weather of late.

In Summary the weather remains on course for a spell of fine and settled weather developing across the UK from early in the week in the South extending to other areas later. Nearly all output are showing variations of synoptics based on the same theme with the main question being how warm will it become and how sunny will it be. From what I can see tonight there is plenty of room for optimism on some very decent conditions from early next week which should please farmers and horticulturalists alike as it approaches the key time for good weather needed to gather in the harvest.

Thanks Martin

cut priced bread then   me think not.

strange that thou how gfs makes a deal about that shortwave at t144 appr n/w     ecm cant c it all yet maybe wont but would like solution resolved quickly really. as it looks good at 500 later on gfs has  hot members but some has her floating more in a safe postion to the west still warm but with a better and safer block almost omega looking some of them.

Stunning output this evening...I'm very pleased.

Its been a very dry summer here with 13.6mm in June and just 4.0mm in August so far.

July notched up 62mm but 53mm of that fell in two seperate thunderstorms.

Faith in the British Summer is restored. 

The 12z ECM shows some particularly low heights canada & greenland for this time of the year, with the jet alligning NW SE & sometimes W E along the atlantic, where as the GFS is hoping to reallign the flow SW NE-

I did put the summer is over flag up the other day, maybe a bit premature for some, & of course that doesnt preclude a chance of some hot sunny weather, however it will interesting to see what actually happens in the next 4-6 weeks as the lights begin to go out on another summer....

S

No signs of the summer lights going out looking at the current output.