The Weather Outlook

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Rob K
25 June 2026 08:18:08
In the southeast (sorry!) this morning’s GFS keeps max temps at 26C or above for all of next week right out to Saturday. Not much sign of anything cold or even cool down here. 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Charmhills
25 June 2026 08:27:18
Still on course for a cooler, fresher week next week with the odd showers around, but generally little rain away from the north,

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=50902&var=201&run=0&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

The Midlands, for example.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

The Beast from the East
25 June 2026 09:17:02
July 7th onwards could be seeing the Azores high finally ridge across properly and pull in some of that heat down south. 

Mid July could be the next period of interest. 


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

25 June 2026 10:06:47

Oops sorry I didn’t realise this was the Southeast thread.

If you were less parochial and lazy you would see the pattern in the t850 ensemble charts is reflected across the country, not that the weather in only your little corner of the world is of much interest to me, I prefer to look at the bigger picture…dude.

In fact it is even more marked in the SE: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=0&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Well I live in Cumberland I can hop over to Scotland in 10 minutes, Its forecast to be 34c here this afternoon Aberdeen is 18c my point stands, Cowabunga! 🤣😂

doctormog
25 June 2026 11:39:41

Well I live in Cumberland I can hop over to Scotland in 10 minutes, Its forecast to be 34c here this afternoon Aberdeen is 18c my point stands, Cowabunga! 🤣😂

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

No, it really does not. You referred directly to the SE in reply to my comment on the overall trend on the t850hPa ensemble output! And have now followed that up with a comment about today's weather (which incidentally is glorious and also very pleasant for working).

The 06z GEFS output continues with the same t850 trend, nationwide, (in case that last word really needs to be included).


doctormog
25 June 2026 11:42:15

In the southeast (sorry!) this morning’s GFS keeps max temps at 26C or above for all of next week right out to Saturday. Not much sign of anything cold or even cool down here. 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

No need to apologise. Given the remarkably above average temperatures at the moment, the clear trend, despite the steady decrease in coming days, still does not take temperatures to below average!


25 June 2026 17:35:29

No, it really does not. You referred directly to the SE in reply to my comment on the overall trend on the t850hPa ensemble output! And have now followed that up with a comment about today's weather (which incidentally is glorious and also very pleasant for working).

The 06z GEFS output continues with the same t850 trend, nationwide, (in case that last word really needs to be included).

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

My point if you really don't understand is that the ensemble forecast for Aberdeen has little relevance for most people in the UK even with historically high uppers Aberdeen is chilly. So posting an ensemble chart for Aberdeen in response to discussion about summer conditions holding on in the south East of England when the conditions in the same country on the same are so different, is pure folly.

The Beast from the East
25 June 2026 17:37:25
GFS 12z interesting run. The South never really cools down properly and the azores keeps trying to ridge across and eventually makes it.  Classic British Summer. warm days and comfortable nights next week for the south anyway
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2026 17:38:36
Another very warm to hot GFS 12z for the southern 3rd of the UK. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Brian Gaze
25 June 2026 17:40:21
Happy days next week if you're in the southern half of the UK, like warm weather and the UK Met Global is on the ball.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=120&chartname=eur_Precipitation_rate&chartregion=eur&charttag=Precip%20type 

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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doctormog
25 June 2026 17:43:52

My point if you really don't understand is that the ensemble forecast for Aberdeen has little relevance for most people in the UK even with historically high uppers Aberdeen is chilly. So posting an ensemble chart for Aberdeen in response to discussion about summer conditions holding on in the south East of England when the conditions in the same country on the same are so different, is pure folly.

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

Thanks for conforming that you don’t understand what a trend in t850s means. It’s not about whether it’s going to be summery in Aberdeen or SE England it is about the fact there is a steady and marked decrease in t850s and my location was used to demonstrate that. The trend is nationwide, it it to be be honest a bit embarrassing that you don’t understand that. I suspect even the causal weather enthusiast is every well aware of the difference in climate between NE Scotland SE England. 

Your point appears to be trying to address a point that I did not make but if it makes you happy to misinterpret my post there’s little I can do to stop you.

As you have totally ignored my point once again I can only assume that in some random alternative version of the model output you don’t see the obvious trend of a decrease of the t850s from their remarkable current highs to an average level? I mean I could list more links showing that it is the same north to south but you seem unable to open them (or choose to ignore them?)


doctormog
25 June 2026 17:47:28
And as a general illustration (and now stated 3 times) it is same trend her as well as the south. If any member interprets that as suggesting it will be the same weather in the north and the south, perhaps they need to think a little more carefully

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=12&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

UserPostedImage


Chunky Pea
25 June 2026 18:01:54

My point if you really don't understand is that the ensemble forecast for Aberdeen has little relevance for most people in the UK even with historically high uppers Aberdeen is chilly. So posting an ensemble chart for Aberdeen in response to discussion about summer conditions holding on in the south East of England when the conditions in the same country on the same are so different, is pure folly.

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

Given that he actually lives in Aberdeen, isn't it only natural that he would post a chart for his own location? I think his bigger point is that 850 trends tend to be widely applied over a relatively large region. A trend over NE Scoland wouldn't be that out of the kilter with the rest of Scotland and even N. England/N Ireland at least.


Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

25 June 2026 18:06:37

And as a general illustration (and now stated 3 times) it is same trend her as well as the south. If any member interprets that as suggesting it will be the same weather in the north and the south, perhaps they need to think a little more carefully

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=12&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

25 June 2026 18:11:18

And as a general illustration (and now stated 3 times) it is same trend her as well as the south. If any member interprets that as suggesting it will be the same weather in the north and the south, perhaps they need to think a little more carefully

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=12&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

UserPostedImage

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Upper air temp could be 5c in the south and the conditions could be 23/24c uppers in Aberdeen could be 15c and the temp could be 17c.

Folly posting ensembles for Aberdeen pretending they are relevant to surface conditions in the rest of the UK.  You seem a bit lets say.. literal so I'll leave it at that 😉

Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2026 18:30:07
Settled AIFS 12z becoming very hot again.
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
doctormog
25 June 2026 18:31:02

Upper air temp could be 5c in the south and the conditions could be 23/24c uppers in Aberdeen could be 15c and the temp could be 17c.

Folly posting ensembles for Aberdeen pretending they are relevant to surface conditions in the rest of the UK.  You seem a bit lets say.. literal so I'll leave it at that 😉

Originally Posted by: HighPressureGloom 

You have just made exactly the same point I made in your first sentence and you think you have proven your point. 😂

As for your second sentence I have not referred to surface conditions when posting the t850 charts. Perhaps you just misunderstood my original post and thought that when I posted a trend in t850s generally (using my location as an example) that I didn’t actually mean that and that randomly I thought cooling trends in Aberdeen at t850 hPa level would mean colder weather in the SE. I mean it is a bit of a stretch… 

Anyway all that aside, there’s not much sign of any cool weather, just more seasonal.


Ally Pally Snowman
25 June 2026 19:33:49
AIFS ensembles on the up. Another heatwave to start about the 6th??? Could be 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Matty H
25 June 2026 22:55:28

AIFS ensembles on the up. Another heatwave to start about the 6th??? Could be 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Hopefully. And hopefully even hotter!!!


Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

The Beast from the East
26 June 2026 01:05:08
Seems like Heatwave 3 is appearing, though probably mid July before the high can build across properly and start pulling up that Euro heat
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

White Meadows
26 June 2026 06:24:38

AIFS ensembles on the up. Another heatwave to start about the 6th??? Could be 

https://wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

AIFS could be hallucinating.. gfs and EC suites look far more average long term. 

Not to say the doors of hell cannot open again at very short notice. 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 June 2026 08:08:23
FAX - LP drifting up the west coast with most of the frontal and trough activity in N England/Scotland. By Sun 28th this has combined with Atlantic LP to form a centre S of Iceland 987mb which brings fresher westerly weather for all behind a couple of fronts. But HP is never far from the south and takes possession of Britain again 1028 mb N Ireland Tue 30th (but, hopefully, despite Matty's masochistic wishes, the really hot air is off to the SE of a long trailing front from E France to W Russia).

GFS Op 0z - picks up where FAX leaves off, and from there through to Sun 12th Britain's weather is mainly influenced by the position of the Azores high, so a 'traditional' British summer, basically fine and comfortably warm in the south, cooler and sometimes unsettled in the north (the Azores high at its closest Tue 2nd and Sun 12th, retreating with some cool NW-lies Sun 5th)

ECM - similar to GFS though the Azores High approaches closer to SW Ireland for much of the time, suggesting that weather over nearly all of Britain will be settled, fine and dry, though as the source of air is from the Atlantic around the 'top' of the HP, warm but not boiling hot,

AIFS - London, maxima dropping to 24C Sun 28th and staying there to Fri 10th, give or take a degree or two, small amounts of rain Sat 27th and Thu 4th. Edinburgh, maxima also dropping off but to around 18C, noticeably rising again after Wed 8th; rain at intervals until then.

GEFS - mean well supported by ens members down to norm Mon 29th and staying there for the following week (a little above in the S, a little below in the N) after which mean continues near norm but ens spread increases. A little rain at first in the south else mostly dry there, likelihood of rain progressively increases further north and actually quite wet for much of the time in the Highlands.


It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting - Tom Stoppard

Chichester 12m asl

Charmhills
26 June 2026 08:12:51
Next week is still on course to be a much more pleasant week ahead, even a few showers around, but nothing overly wet.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=50902&var=201&run=0&date=2026-06-26&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

Better running weather.🏃‍♂️


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.

Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2026 08:24:30
Very dry outlook,  if the Azores HP can build over the UK, then we are looking  at another extreme heatwave again.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
26 June 2026 08:25:47
Some very hot AIFS ensembles turning up.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=aifs&var=5&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.

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