I may be misremembering, but have a feeling this current one started off the same way. Then the higher temps would probably only impact the SE and be get to 30c. Then some output showed a wider region affected. And so on.

Every great oak, etc, etc*

.

.

* this adage doesn't apply to winter, where the saplings of 'great Arctic blasts' get munched by the grazing herbivores of Atlantic filth

I think we're on for a new high tomorrow, quite a few pockets of 37C

Hampshire/Wilts/Somerset/Sussex/Gloucs all have contenders.  I'd probably stick with Hants or Wilts taking the crown, 37.xC, probably high, possibly squeaking a low 38C.

The Suffolk furnance for Friday has been downgraded, tomorrow is looking like the absolute peak.

Talking of GFS, the 12Z run seems to keep things fairly settled in the south next week with temperatures starting to climb again by next weekend.

Amazing to think we still have over two months of summer left!

Well right on cue GFS 12z produces its hottest run for a while.

I literally came here to say same, next week looks already better with HP hanging on ok in the south and then it looks like another heatwave developing, long way off but the background signal in terms of upstream pattern are favouring a repeating pattern.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=51243&var=201&run=12&date=2026-06-24&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

I like this gives my 33/1 bet for the Scottish heat record a little boost imo 33c on the models can easily be corrected >2c in reality around these parts!

Some fairly lively atmospherics over northern Wales on Friday morning. pushing into Merseyside/Lancs/Cumbria/W Yorks later on.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/arpege/18_43_ukcape.png 

Excellent them cape values are ridiculous especially for the north! 

Just a quick edit because this British understatement of ours is not doing this justice 😂

"Fairly lively"

Cape values of 3000 J/kg is pure, unadulterated American Tornado Alley weather!

Dude your weather as a much relevance to the fellas in the South East of England as the polar bears weather on Svalbard does🤣🤣

GFS Op 0z - for w/b Sun 28th, HP tries a come-back with a ridge across N England and again warmth for the south on easterlies. This doesn't last as the HP withdraws to the Atlantic and winds go back to W-ly, then NW-ly. For w/b Sun 5th series of LPs become the controlling feature with the source of air  being the north Atlantic - .LP centres Sun 5th 990mb Faeroes, then Tue 7th 1000mb N England then Sat 11th 1005mb Cornwall 

ECM - agrees with GFS

AIFS - London, peak maximum 33C Fri 26th followed by a drop to low 20s C with a little rain Sun 28th - Fri 3rd. Then drier and progressively warmer to 30C by Fri 10th (doesn't match GFS Op). Edinburgh, a couple of peaks Thu & Sat, otherwise maxima in upper teens through to Tue 7th before rapidly rising to 25C . Quite a lot of rain in the coming week, then dry.  Winds in both cases mostly from a westerly point (London E-ly at first and S-ly at the end)

GEFS - Temps dropping from 14C above norm now(less in Scotland) to norm by Sun 28th and staying there, good agreement of mean and ens members (a few hot outliers after 5th Jul) Rain this weekend then mainly dry, perhaps some more in NW England later but more persistent in NW Scotland.

GEFS - 

Oops sorry I didn’t realise this was the Southeast thread.

If you were less parochial and lazy you would see the pattern in the t850 ensemble charts is reflected across the country, not that the weather in only your little corner of the world is of much interest to me, I prefer to look at the bigger picture…dude.

In fact it is even more marked in the SE: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=0&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=50902&var=201&run=0&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

The Midlands, for example.

Mid July could be the next period of interest. 

Well I live in Cumberland I can hop over to Scotland in 10 minutes, Its forecast to be 34c here this afternoon Aberdeen is 18c my point stands, Cowabunga! 🤣😂

No, it really does not. You referred directly to the SE in reply to my comment on the overall trend on the t850hPa ensemble output! And have now followed that up with a comment about today's weather (which incidentally is glorious and also very pleasant for working).

The 06z GEFS output continues with the same t850 trend, nationwide, (in case that last word really needs to be included).

No need to apologise. Given the remarkably above average temperatures at the moment, the clear trend, despite the steady decrease in coming days, still does not take temperatures to below average!

My point if you really don't understand is that the ensemble forecast for Aberdeen has little relevance for most people in the UK even with historically high uppers Aberdeen is chilly. So posting an ensemble chart for Aberdeen in response to discussion about summer conditions holding on in the south East of England when the conditions in the same country on the same are so different, is pure folly.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=120&chartname=eur_Precipitation_rate&chartregion=eur&charttag=Precip%20type 

Thanks for conforming that you don’t understand what a trend in t850s means. It’s not about whether it’s going to be summery in Aberdeen or SE England it is about the fact there is a steady and marked decrease in t850s and my location was used to demonstrate that. The trend is nationwide, it it to be be honest a bit embarrassing that you don’t understand that. I suspect even the causal weather enthusiast is every well aware of the difference in climate between NE Scotland SE England. 

Your point appears to be trying to address a point that I did not make but if it makes you happy to misinterpret my post there’s little I can do to stop you.

As you have totally ignored my point once again I can only assume that in some random alternative version of the model output you don’t see the obvious trend of a decrease of the t850s from their remarkable current highs to an average level? I mean I could list more links showing that it is the same north to south but you seem unable to open them (or choose to ignore them?)

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=49069&var=201&run=12&date=2026-06-25&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1